目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年3月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.9万吨，环比有所增加1.47%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.1万吨，环比减少8.95%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为34.4万吨， 处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片盈利，组件盈利；有机硅库存为47200吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润 为3310元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为63.28%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金 锭库存为6.7万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为088元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为563.79元/吨， 再生铝开工率为53.1%，环比增加13.22%,处于低位。 成本端来看,新疆地区 ...

2026 年 03 月 02 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8,395 | 60 | 60 | -350 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 266,281 | 89,007 | 93,157 | -72,025 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 328,416 | 3,093 | 21,304 | 103,864 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 46,495 | 180 | -2,520 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 9,639 | 1,173 | 5,099 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 40,197 | 272 | 2,49 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年3月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.9万吨，环比有所增加1.47%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.1万吨，环比减少8.95%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存 为34.4万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片盈利，组件盈利；有机硅库存为47200 吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为3250元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为 64.02%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为6.85万吨，处于高位， 进口利润为111元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为560.58元/吨，再生铝开工率为 53.1%，环比增加13.22%,处于低位。 成本端来看,新疆地 ...

工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 26 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 834035/吨，日内跌幅 1.3%，持仓 增仓 11364 手至 32.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9458 元/吨，较上一 交易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 515 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 46315 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.59%，持 仓增仓 1633 手至 39925 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格跌至 52000 元 /吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 52000 元/吨，现货升水收至 4370 元/ 吨。云南厂家节前赶单交付完毕，节后将进入全面停产期，新疆大厂节 前停产、节后短期复产压力较大。工业硅供给存在叙事支撑，但需求受 限下向上推涨空间有限。节前晶硅市场新单停滞，硅片进入一单一议模 式，多环节报价在成交僵持中企稳。节后市场矛盾转向旺季预期下游需 求启动情况，并等待行业新一轮政策信号明朗。短期延续弱势调整，需 警惕政策和需求预期落空后的进一步回调风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-27 成交氛围寡淡，双硅维持震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-02-26，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8430元/吨，最后收于8335元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-110） 元/吨，变化（-1.3）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓325323手，2026-02-25仓单总数为20817手，较前一日变化0 手。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，目前供应端显著收缩，价格支撑明显，但多晶硅高库存始终压制需求，价格缺 乏上行动力。供需双弱下，关注节后大厂复工计划及资金情绪变化。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进 度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计2月12日工业硅主要地区社会 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为6 | 8万吨 . | 环比有所减少4 ， | 22% . | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 上周工业硅需求为6 ， | | 7万吨 ， . | 环比增长11 | 67% . . | 需求有所抬 | | | | | | 升 多晶硅库存为34 9万吨 . . | ， | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片盈利 ， | 组件盈 | | | | | | 利 有机硅库存为47200吨 ； | ， | 处于低位 ， | | 有机硅生产利润为3250元/吨 | 处 ， | | | | | | 于盈利状态 其综合开工率为64 ， | . | 02% ， | 环比持平 ， | 低于历史同期平均水 | | | | | 1 | 基本面 : | 平 铝合金锭库存为6 ； . | 85万吨 ， | 处于高位 ， | | 进口利润为245元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 11, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,370 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.48%. The open interest increased by 4,377 lots to 308,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,458 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 480 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 49,180 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The open interest decreased by 304 lots to 38,313 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from Baichuan reached 53,650 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also 53,650 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 4,470 yuan/ton. Yunnan manufacturers entered the delivery period for the last batch of orders before the holiday, and production will gradually be reduced across the board this week. Xinjiang continued to reduce production and output. Currently, term traders are still actively selling goods, and downstream备货 is coming to an end. There is no upward momentum before the holiday. New orders in the crystalline silicon market have stagnated before the holiday. Silicon wafers have entered a one-order-one-negotiation mode. Except for component traders selling goods at reduced prices due to financial pressure, other sectors have temporarily stabilized in the stalemate of transactions. Before the holiday, based on the logic of capital repatriation, the crystalline silicon futures market will continue to be weak, and market contradictions will shift to the game of post-holiday expected confidence [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Futures Settlement Price**: The main contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 8,295 yuan/ton. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various grades and regions remained unchanged. The price difference between 421 and non-oxygenated 553/oxygenated 553 remained stable at 450/350 yuan/ton. - **Delivery Price**: The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 5 yuan to 480 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,200 tons to 19,317 tons, and the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory increased by 13,970 tons to 83,685 tons. The weekly inventories at Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and industrial silicon factories increased by 1,000 tons, 1,000 tons, and 14,500 tons respectively. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 16,500 tons to 439,350 tons [4]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Futures Settlement Price**: The main contract increased by 230 yuan/ton to 49,180 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract remained unchanged at 49,490 yuan/ton. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. - **Delivery Price**: The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 53,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 230 yuan to 4,470 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 900 tons to 7,940 tons, and the weekly GFE inventory increased by 0.6 million tons to 25.83 million tons. The weekly polysilicon factory inventory increased by 0.9 million tons to 34.1 million tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.9 million tons to 34.1 million tons [4]. 3.1.3 Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil remained unchanged at 14,800 yuan/ton, 14,500 yuan/ton, and 15,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - The charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components [14][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, polysilicon futures inventory, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, industrial silicon weekly inventory change, polysilicon weekly inventory, and DMC weekly inventory [20][23]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost level, average profit level, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and aluminum alloy cost and profit [26][28][31]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non-ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher. Wang Heng mainly focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon. Zhu Xi mainly studies lithium and nickel [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon last week was 71,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.41%. Demand was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. Demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. - The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. Negative factors include the slow recovery of demand after the holiday and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production last week was 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. The scheduled production in February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93%. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [8][11]. - The fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as the net long position of the main contract (with a decrease in long positions) and the spot price premium over the futures price [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, down 13.41% week - on - week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, down 20% week - on - week. The inventory and profit status of downstream products vary: polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level; organic silicon inventory is at a low level with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 830 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 562,000 tons, up 1.44% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory was 206,000 tons, down 1.43% week - on - week; major port inventory was 136,000 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level. Demand recovery is emerging. Cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, down 0.49% week - on - week. The scheduled production in February is 79,700 tons, down 20.93% month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, down 11.65% week - on - week, with an inventory of 283,200 tons, up 3.77% week - on - week, and the production is currently in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend, but battery cells and components are currently in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,920 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the price of N - type dense material was 52,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,470 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 341,000 tons, up 2.40% week - on - week, at a neutral level compared to the historical average [11]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling continues to decrease, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of various industrial silicon contracts and spot products, including different grades of silicon in East China, contract prices from 01 to 12, and various inventory data such as social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory [17]. Polysilicon - It presents the price, change, and inventory data of polysilicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also includes multiple charts and data on the price, production, inventory, and cost of industrial silicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon, etc.). These charts show the historical trends and current situations of various indicators, providing a comprehensive reference for analyzing the market situation of industrial silicon and related industries [21][24][27] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but the high inventory of polysilicon suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints. The large - scale inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and we need to wait for the supply - demand game [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8430 yuan/ton and closed at 8375 yuan/ton, a change of (- 130) yuan/ton or (- 1.53)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 303387 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 9, 2026, was 18117 lots, a change of 1368 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 56.2 tons, an increase of 1.44% from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be weak. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market was mainly focused on inventory clearance [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the Spring Festival approaching, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and fell, opening at 48815 yuan/ton and closing at 48950 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38617 (38347 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 3991 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon increased slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a month - on - month change of 2.40%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, with a month - on - month change of 3.77%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 20100.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, with a month - on - month change of - 11.66% [3] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components remained stable. There were no quotes and transactions for mainstream polysilicon products this week. Market sentiment was more cautious than last week, new orders were completely stagnant, and only a few companies had small - scale exploratory inquiries. Downstream companies were mainly digesting existing inventories, and the purchasing willingness was extremely low [3][4] Strategy - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - On February 10, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of industrial silicon 2605 closed at 8375 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.53% and an increase of 8477 lots in positions to 303,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot was 9458 yuan/ton, remaining stable, and the lowest delivery price was 8850 yuan/ton, with the spot premium expanding to 475 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon 2605 closed at 48,950 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.23% and an increase of 270 lots in positions to 38,617 lots. The price of N-type re - fed silicon material was 53,650 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 4700 yuan/ton. Yunnan manufacturers are in the delivery period of the last batch of pre - holiday orders and will gradually reduce production this week, while Xinjiang continues to reduce production. Current traders are actively selling, downstream stocking is coming to an end, and there is no upward momentum before the holiday. The new orders in the crystalline silicon market have stagnated before the holiday, and the silicon wafer market has entered a one - order - one - negotiation mode. Except for component traders selling at reduced prices due to financial pressure, other sectors have temporarily stabilized in the stalemate of transactions. The crystalline silicon market will continue to be weak before the holiday, and the market contradiction has shifted to the game of post - holiday expected confidence [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research View - On February 10, industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were weak and volatile, and the market was affected by factors such as production reduction, active selling by traders, and the end of downstream stocking. The market focus has shifted to post - holiday expectations [2] Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8450 yuan/ton on February 9 to 8375 yuan/ton on February 10, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions remained stable, with only a 50 - yuan/ton decrease in the price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon in Tianjin Port. The lowest delivery price remained at 8850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 400 yuan/ton to 475 yuan/ton. The inventory increased, with the social inventory increasing by 16,500 tons to 439,350 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 49,370 yuan/ton on February 9 to 48,950 yuan/ton on February 10, a decrease of 420 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types remained stable. The lowest delivery price was 53,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 4280 yuan/ton to 4700 yuan/ton. The inventory increased, with the social inventory increasing by 0.9 million tons to 34.1 million tons [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4] Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components [12][14][16] - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories, weekly industry inventories, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC [18][21] - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, processing industry profit of polysilicon, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of aluminum alloy [24][26][29] Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metal team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, each with rich experience and professional titles in relevant fields, and they have made contributions in research and media communication [32][33]