工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 08 月 27 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 工业硅日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 22 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. Si2511 closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, down 0.28%, with a trading volume of 511,250 lots and an open interest of 297,619 lots, a net increase of 21,347 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. Inner Mongolia 553 was priced at 8,800 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 at 8,850 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 at 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 at 9,500 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 at 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Weekly supply and demand both increased. Weekly output reached 84,700 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon production in August is expected to increase to 125,000 tons, and demand from organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and exports is expected to remain stable, with monthly demand estimated at 360,000 tons. Supply and demand are in a loose balance (excluding 97 silicon and recycled silicon), and there is no inventory reduction drive in the industry [4] - Anti - involution policies set a bottom tone, but there are no implemented policy drivers in the industrial silicon industry. Futures prices are weaker than those of polysilicon and lithium carbonate. In the short term, prices will oscillate within the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton with decreasing trading volume [4] Group 3: Market News - On August 18, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,710 lots, a net increase of 111 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data on August 7, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. The cumulative import from January to July was 25.7305 million tons [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon spot prices are generally stable, while futures prices continue to oscillate within a range without clear directional guidance, with a balanced drive from both long and short funds. The fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, maintaining a loose balance. The anti - involution policy sets a bottom tone, but without actual policy implementation in the industrial silicon industry, the spot prices are only stable and not rising, and the market lacks a major driving force. In the short term, it is expected to operate in a convergent triangular and volume - shrinking oscillation between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, and interval operation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices mainly oscillated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8675 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.14%. The trading volume was 512076 lots, and the open interest was 279035 lots, with a net decrease of 5465 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Prices - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8850 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9700 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9950 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Future Outlook - Supply: The operation of plants in the Southwest and Xinjiang production areas has boosted the weekly output to 83,500 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of 370,000 tons - Demand: The production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons. The demand from organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and exports is expected to remain stable, equivalent to a monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The supply - demand balance is loose (excluding 97 - grade silicon and recycled silicon), and there is no inventory - reduction drive in the industry [4] 3.4 Market News - On August 14th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,693 lots, a net decrease of 8 lots compared to the previous trading day - According to customs data on August 7th, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25.7305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Industry: Industrial Silicon [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The supply - demand situation remains in a loose pattern with both supply and demand increasing, and the short - term futures price will oscillate based on the spot price due to limited fundamental drivers and ineffective anti - involution policies [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The trading volume was 520,504 lots, and the open interest was 278,860 lots, with a net increase of 6,917 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,800 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 8,850 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,500 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. - **Outlook**: The resumption of production in the southwest and Xinjiang led to the weekly output of industrial silicon reaching 83,500 tons (370,000 tons monthly). The increase in demand was less than that in supply. Polysilicon production in August was expected to reach 125,000 tons, while the organic silicon, alloy, and export sectors were expected to remain stable. The supply - demand of industrial silicon increased simultaneously, maintaining a loose pattern. The short - term futures price would oscillate based on the spot price [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 12, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,658 lots, a net decrease of 102 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data on August 7, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25.7305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price continued its rebound trend, with the Si2511 closing at 9000 yuan/ton, up 4.83%. The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, but the fundamental driving force was not obvious. The market was expected to fluctuate based on the spot price in the short - term [4] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price continued to rebound. The Si2511 closed at 9000 yuan/ton, with a 4.83% increase, a trading volume of 662196 lots, and an open interest of 271943 lots, a net increase of 33258 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8850 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9700 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9950 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand both increased, and the fundamental driving force was not obvious. The weekly output of industrial silicon increased to 8.35 tons (37 tons monthly) due to the resumption of production in the southwest and Xinjiang. The demand increase was smaller than the supply increase. The production schedule of polysilicon in August would increase to 12.50 tons. The market was expected to fluctuate based on the spot price in the short - term [4] 3.2 Market News - On August 11, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50760 lots, a net increase of 420 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data on August 7, China imported 3560.9 million tons of coal and lignite in July, a month - on - month increase of 257.2 million tons or 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25730.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals' improvement of industrial silicon has reached a dead - end, and the price is oscillating and waiting for a direction. The supply - demand situation is in a loose pattern with both supply and demand increasing. The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, but there is no actual anti - involution policy, and the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing. The support for the futures price lies in the recent strengthening of cost - related varieties. It is expected to continue the current range - bound operation [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Industrial silicon futures prices continued to rebound. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,655 yuan/ton, with a 0.46% increase. The trading volume was 396,110 lots, and the open interest was 224,390 lots, with a net increase of 15,654 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,850 yuan/ton [4] - **Future Outlook**: In the fundamentals, the resumption of production in the southwest production areas has driven the output to continuously increase. The weekly output in the first week of August increased to 78,600 tons (this output converted to monthly output will increase to 348,100 tons). On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August has increased, and the monthly output demand is expected to reach 125,000 tons, but the incremental demand will be digested by the existing industrial silicon production increase. The output of organic silicon has remained generally stable, and there is a lack of short - term increment. The supply - demand of industrial silicon has increased simultaneously, maintaining a loose pattern [4] 3.2 Market News - On August 7th, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,475 lots, a net decrease of 105 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - According to the data of the General Administration of Customs on August 7th, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. From January to July, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 25.7305 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.0% [5]

Report Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.37%. The trading volume was 311,623 lots, and the open interest was 181,168 lots, with a net increase of 13,572 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the production increase capacity of organic silicon was limited in the short term. The monthly supply and demand of industrial silicon remained in a loose pattern [4] - Market sentiment cooled down, and the trends of previous varieties in the same sector had diverged. Industrial silicon lacked the implementation of clear stimulus policies. The spot price rose and then fell again. After the futures entered the daily short - term trend, it stopped falling in the short term. The strengthening of coking coal and coke prices on the cost side drove a rebound, but the rebound space of futures was limited due to the lack of major drivers [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,806 lots, with a net increase of 494 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Xingfa Group stated that the actual production capacity of its DMC was about 300,000 tons/year. The increase in DMC price had a positive impact on the company's organic silicon business segment. If only considering the production capacity factor, for every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in the organic silicon price, it was expected to increase the company's annual profit by about 3 billion yuan [5]

Report Date - The report date is August 05, 2025 [2] Research Team - The research team includes Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2509 was 8360 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.46%. The trading volume was 187,014 lots, and the open interest was 176,164 lots, with a net decrease of 18,176 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The supply - demand relationship has not improved. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the capacity to increase production of silicone was limited in the short term [4] - After the policy - driven market sentiment cooled down, the previous trends of the same - sector varieties began to diverge. There was no clear policy for industrial silicon, and the spot price began to weaken. The hourly chart broke through the support level, forming a short - term bearish trend and reaching a low of 8225 yuan/ton. It is expected to be mainly in a weak short - term oscillation [4] Market News - On August 04, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,312 lots, a net decrease of 204 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [5] - From January to June, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: August 01, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped significantly. The closing price of Si2509 was 8,760 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.26%. The trading volume was 410,371 lots, and the open interest was 212,932 lots, with a net decrease of 29,745 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,250 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,850 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,800 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The supply - demand relationship has not improved. The resumption of production in the southwest offsets the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July increased to 330,000 tons compared to the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the short - term production increase capacity of organic silicon is limited [4] - The exchange has continuously issued limit notices, and the risk appetite of funds has significantly decreased. A bearish trend has formed on the hourly chart, and the range above 9,000 has become a resistance area. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [4] Group 3: Market News - On July 31, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,644 lots, a net increase of 798 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [5] - From January to June, the average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]