成文日期:2026年2月27日 员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0000164) 工业硅期货月报 一、行情走势回顾 2026 年 2 月,工业硅期货主力 2605 合约呈现震荡下行走势。 月度开盘 8880 元/吨,随后价格震荡回落。月度最高 9010 元/吨, 最低 8200 元/吨,月度收盘 8395 元/吨,较 1 月收盘价下跌 455 元/ 吨。整体来看,本月工业硅期货价格呈现弱势震荡格局,市场情绪 受到供需双弱及宏观因素影响。 二、当月现货市场 2026年2月工业硅现货市场整体呈现下行趋势。2 月 26 日,华 东不通氧 553 均价 9150元/吨,较前一日下跌 50元/吨。主要产区 报价方面,华东不通氧 553 为 9150 元/吨,新疆地区报价 8810 元/ 吨（1 月 28 目数据）、云南地区 10005 元/吨（1 月 28 日数据）. 四川地区 10050 元/吨（1 月 28 日数据）。 从价格走势看,2月工业硅现货价格整体呈现震荡下行态势。根 据市场数据,2月2日现货领先价格为 9191 元/吨,2月 3 日降至 9085 元/吨，2 月 6 日回升 ...

报告周期:日报 成文日期: 2026年2月10日 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) 工业硅期货目报 一、行情回顾 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 今日（2026年2月10日）工业硅期货主力合约 SI2605 呈现震 荡下行走势。当日开盘 8430元/吨,最高价为 8470元/吨,最低 8350 元/吨．收盘价为 8375 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 130 元/吨。 持仓量 303387 手,品种总持仓量今日达到 418432 手,较前一交易 日增加 12176 手，显示市场参与度有所提升。 二、现货市场 2026 年 2 月 10 日中国工业硅现货领先价格为 9106 元/吨，期 货价格贴水现货价格,反映市场对远期价格的谨慎预期。 三、主要影响因素 二三】 二十 行业库存压力：市场消息显示当前工业硅库存处于累库阶段, 市场对仓单情况保持密切关注，库存压力对期货价格形成压制。 下游需求预期：2 月 5 日中国光伏行业协会发布的《中国光伏 产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon market are neutral, with both supply and demand in a weak - reality stage. The futures price of industrial silicon will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The futures price of industrial silicon oscillated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,755 yuan/ton, with a 0.75% increase. The trading volume was 269,300 lots, the open interest was 238,877 lots, a net decrease of 827 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net reduction of 1,799 lots, and short positions had a net increase of 5,299 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices remained stable. The price of 553 - grade in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the first quarter, the monthly average output is expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weak. The organic silicon operating rate is stable without fulfilling the expected centralized production cuts. Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated stage from anti - involution to anti - monopoly policy correction, with monthly output decreasing month - on - month. Industrial silicon inventories are high, enterprises are scattered, the market is dull, and spot prices are weakly stable, making it difficult to break through the upside. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to remain range - bound [4]. 3.4 Market News - On January 12th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,888 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. On January 9th, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped significantly, with the SI2605 contract price at 8,535 yuan/ton and a decline of 4.53%. After the sharp decline, the net long - position increased, and considering the stable spot price, the downward space is limited. It is expected to continue the convergent oscillation between 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices tumbled. The SI2605 contract price was 8,535 yuan/ton with a 4.53% decline, trading volume was 666,115 lots, and the position was 260,531 lots, with a net increase of 15,797 lots. The top twenty long - positions had a net increase of 13,580 lots, and short - positions had a net increase of 6,535 lots [4]. - Spot prices remained stable. Sichuan 553 was priced at 9,300 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 at 8,900 yuan/ton, Sichuan 421 at 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 at 9,550 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 421 at 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The sentiment of the strong varieties ebbed. Although coking coal and coke were running strongly, the daily limit of polysilicon in the intraday trading drove industrial silicon to accelerate its decline in the afternoon. The fundamentals of industrial silicon are relatively neutral compared to strong varieties, and policies have no imagination space. The spot price is stable and has not yet opened up the upward space [4]. 3.3 Market News - On January 08, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,792 lots, a decrease of 7 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the 4th week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08% [5]. - In the 4th week of December, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price rose and then fell, with the SI2605 contract price at 8900 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. The spot price remained stable. The industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral compared to stronger varieties, lacking policy imagination space. The 1 - month spot market trading was dull, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low. The expected output in January is about 350,000 tons, and there will be increasing production pressure during the wet season after the second quarter. The demand side lacks growth. The market sentiment drives short - term price fluctuations, but the overall spot price is stable and has not broken through the upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan/ton [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price of the SI2605 contract was 8900 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37%, a trading volume of 460,467 lots, an open interest of 234,611 lots (a net increase of 17,319 lots). The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 8,524 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 12,431 lots. The spot price remained stable, with the 553 - grade price in Sichuan at 9300 yuan/ton, in Yunnan at 8900 yuan/ton; the 421 - grade price in Sichuan at 9900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia at 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The commodity index has rebounded strongly recently, and the risk - taking preference of long - position funds has increased sharply. However, the industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral. There is no policy - driven potential. In January, the spot market trading was dull, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low. The expected output in January is about 350,000 tons, and there will be increasing production pressure during the wet season after the second quarter. The demand side lacks growth. The organic silicon monomer operating rate was 72.85% in December, and the concentrated production cuts were not significantly realized. The latest weekly operating rate was maintained at 69.61%. The polysilicon output in December was 116,900 tons, and in the current situation, polysilicon can only cut production, with little chance of growth. The market sentiment drives short - term price fluctuations, but the overall spot price is stable and has not broken through the upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Market News - On January 6, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the GZEE was 10,687 lots, an increase of 467 lots from the previous trading day. In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08%. In the fourth week of December, the weekly industrial silicon output was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [6].

Report Information - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Industrial Silicon - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of industrial silicon still present a loose pattern, and the unilateral driving force of the fundamentals remains limited. The short - term trading difficulty has increased significantly, and it is advisable to wait and see. The price is expected to operate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell. The SI2605 contract price was 8,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.68%. The intraday increase once exceeded 2%. The trading volume was 382,415 lots, and the open interest was 221,065 lots, a net decrease of 3,677 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 449 lots, and the short positions had a net decrease of 1,312 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price remained stable. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,200 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 was 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The expected monthly output in December is about 360,000 tons, and the weekly output is at a seasonal low. The far - month contracts face the pressure of resuming production during the wet season. On the demand side, the weekly operating load rate of silicone monomers was 69.2%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of polysilicon remained at 26,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week [4]. 2. Market News - On December 29, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,907 lots, an increase of 480 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08% [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [5]. - The quotation of polysilicon is rising, but the actual transactions are differentiated. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish stocks. However, with industry self - discipline and policy support, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and it is expected that the spot transaction price of polysilicon will remain stable in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8780 yuan/ton, with a 1.68% increase. The spot price declined slightly. The market is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern due to the lack of improvement in fundamentals [4]. - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the output has limited room for further decline, with a monthly expected output of 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the production reduction of polysilicon has led to a monthly output decline to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8780 yuan/ton, up 1.68%, with a trading volume of 351,425 lots and an open interest of 213,776 lots, a net decrease of 7,830 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net decrease of 823 lots, and short positions had a net decrease of 611 lots [4]. - The spot price decreased slightly. The Sichuan 553 price was 9200 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 price was 8900 yuan/ton, the Sichuan 421 price was 9900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9450 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2. Market Outlook - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the production decline is limited, with a monthly expected output of 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production reduction has led to a monthly output decline to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, but the supply - demand remains loose [4]. - The current industrial inventory is 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.40%. The futures inventory is 45,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures price weakened and the discount led to insufficient return momentum. The fundamentals lack improvement expectations, the spot price is generally stable, and the market is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern [4]. 3.3. Market News - On December 23, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the GZEX was 9,175 lots, an increase of 156 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 462,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 28.25% [5]. - The silicone DMC market remained stable, with the current DMC price ranging from 13,500 to 14,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to rise steadily in the short term [5]. - The polysilicon spot price was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising their prices. The downstream procurement willingness was low, and the inventory was slowly increasing. The spot transaction price is expected to remain stable in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly decreasing by 1.54% to 8305.0 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] - The spot price for industrial silicon was reported at 9603 CNY/ton, down by 45 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, with the lowest delivery price for 421 dropping to 8850 CNY/ton and the spot premium expanding to 510 CNY/ton [2] - Supply remains stable with southern production rates low and northern manufacturers slightly increasing output, indicating that the main variable currently depends on the operational status of large manufacturers [2] Group 2 - Demand is tightening as major integrated companies are increasing production cuts, leading to a slowdown in actual demand for installations, with the number of domestic companies winning provincial and municipal photovoltaic project bids decreasing, totaling 1232.8 MW, down by 345.7 MW week-on-week [2] - Future outlook suggests that while cost support may weaken, silicon prices could have some downward space; however, coal prices are expected to stabilize, limiting the potential decline in industrial silicon prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot price remained stable. The market focus has shifted from production cuts in the southwest to the weakening demand. The industrial silicon industry lacks anti - involution policy expectations, and the futures market shows a bearish structure. Attention should be paid to the 8765 - 8840 range as a reference for long - short conversion [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The closing price of Si2601 was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.12%. The trading volume was 170,669 lots, and the open interest was 196,943 lots, with a net increase of 3,924 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The 553 - grade silicon price in Sichuan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the 553 (oxygen - passed) grade in Yunnan was 9,400 yuan/ton. The 421 - grade silicon price in Sichuan was 9,950 yuan/ton, 9,600 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, and 9,600 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [4]. - **Outlook**: Production cuts in the southwest have approached the seasonal low, while the operation in the northwest is basically stable, with a monthly output expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weakening. The weekly output of polysilicon is 26,500 tons, a 3% week - on - week decrease, and the monthly output is expected to be within 115,000 - 120,000 tons. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers is 74.29%, a 2 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [4]. 3.2 Market News - On December 5, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,288 lots, a net increase of 60 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month decrease and a 30.78% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary silicone polyoxane was 40,600 tons, a 13.49% month - on - month decrease and a 5.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 460,500 tons, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated narrowly, with the Si2601 closing at 9020 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%, a trading volume of 276,196 lots, and an open interest of 232,849 lots, a net decrease of 9,304 lots [4]. - Spot prices were slightly raised and then stabilized, with the 553 price ranging from 9,000 to 9,400 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,600 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. - In November, the southwest production areas are expected to enter the seasonal production - reduction stage. Sichuan and Yunnan produced over 90,000 tons in October, compared with 64,200 tons in the same period last year. However, the northern production areas have an expected increase in production. The current supply - demand imbalance has not been reversed, and the actual production reduction after profit repair remains to be observed. Spot prices are generally stable, and the 01 price is in a convergent oscillation stage, still operating within the adjustment range after August [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The Si2601 closed at 9020 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 276,196 lots and an open interest of 232,849 lots, a net decrease of 9,304 lots [4]. - Spot prices were slightly raised and then stabilized, with the 553 price ranging from 9,000 to 9,400 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,600 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 6th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the GZEE was 46,281 lots, a net increase of 86 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - On October 31st, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [5]. - In September, the industrial silicon export volume was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative industrial silicon export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [5].