Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The increase in production due to the resumption of production in March on the supply side will compete with the recovery of the silicone开工率 on the demand side, and the inventory level will fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side provides certain support, and the cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity serves as a reference for the current price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption of work by large factories in April and the digestion of polysilicon inventory on the demand for industrial silicon [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review On March 26, 2026, the opening price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures was 8,785 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,735 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,790 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase/decrease of 0.58%. The trading volume was 140,735 lots, the open interest was 229,643 lots, and the trading volume was 6.14658 billion yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market The industrial silicon spot market was generally stable, with prices remaining stable in many places and rising in some areas. In East China, the quoted price of oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,150 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,700 yuan/ton. In Xinjiang, the average price of industrial silicon (441) on March 19 was 8,850 yuan/ton, with a price range of 8,600 - 9,100 yuan/ton. As of March 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, and the social inventory continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. On the supply side, some production capacities resumed in March, and it is expected that the average daily output of industrial silicon in March will increase by about 13% month-on-month, and the inventory in March is expected to remain flat or experience a slight reduction [2]. 3.3 Main Influencing Factors - **Cost Factor**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuates with the price of raw coal. The low cash cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity is around 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cash cost range of silicon plants with self - generated electricity is relatively lower [2]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, according to Longzhong data, the national industrial silicon output last week was 76,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 200 tons. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream silicone has begun to recover, and the price is relatively stable. The export volume of silicone from January to February increased significantly year - on - year [3]. - **Related Market Impact**: The polysilicon market has a high inventory, a low operating rate, and the spot price continues to decline. The futures market has fallen into the cash cost range of large factories. The cumulative exports of photovoltaic modules, battery cells, and polysilicon from January to February increased year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Short - term Outlook The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The increase in production due to the resumption of production in March on the supply side will compete with the recovery of the silicone开工率 on the demand side, and the inventory level will fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side provides certain support, and the cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity serves as a reference for the current price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption of work by large factories in April and the digestion of polysilicon inventory on the demand for industrial silicon [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. The upper price is suppressed by the slow inventory consumption, while the lower price is supported by the decline in production and cost. The main contract SI2605 is likely to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 2, 2026, the opening price of the main contract SI2605 of industrial silicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8,410 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 8,440 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 8,225 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 8,325 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 202,748 lots, the open interest was 334,292 lots, an increase of 5,876 lots, but the variety's open interest decreased by 2,701 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On March 2, 2026, the leading price of China's industrial silicon spot was 9,090 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract SI2605 was 8,325 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium of 765 yuan/ton to the futures, and the basis was within a reasonable range [2]. 3.3 Main Influencing Factors - The pattern of weak supply and demand persists. The supply - side operating rate remains at a low level, with only a small number of furnaces resuming production. The demand - side is in the seasonal resumption stage, but the overall recovery speed is slow [2]. - Cost support is obvious. The cost of industrial silicon is in the range of about 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, which provides certain support for the futures price. The production cost in Xinjiang, a low - cost production area, has an important impact on the futures market price [2]. - Inventory pressure still exists. According to SMM data, the social inventory of industrial silicon after the Spring Festival is 560,000 tons, a slight increase of 3,000 tons compared with before the festival. The slow inventory digestion suppresses the price [2]. - The expectation of production resumption affects market sentiment. There are rumors that 15 furnaces of industrial silicon will resume production in March, and large factories in Xinjiang also have production resumption plans, which has a certain impact on market sentiment [3]. 3.4 Short - term Outlook - Key factors to focus on include the actual resumption of large factories, especially the resumption progress in Xinjiang; the recovery of downstream demand, including the changes in the operating rates of major downstream industries such as organic silicon and polysilicon; the inventory change trend; and the cost - side changes, including the price fluctuations of raw and auxiliary materials such as silica and silicon coal and the adjustment of electricity price policies [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The industrial silicon market in March 2026 will be in the process of re - balancing supply and demand. The price trend will depend on the relative speed of the resumption of production and the recovery of demand. The upper price is suppressed by the slow inventory consumption, and the lower price is supported by the decline in production and cost. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - In February 2026, the main 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures showed a volatile downward trend. The monthly opening price was 8,880 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the monthly closing price was 8,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton from the closing price in January [2]. - The industrial silicon spot market in February 2026 showed a downward trend. On February 26, the average price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. 3.2. Main Influencing Factors - **Supply - demand imbalance**: SMM predicted that due to the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang and the decline in production in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other regions, the domestic industrial silicon production in February 2026 was expected to decrease by more than 27% month - on - month. The downstream industries all had varying degrees of demand reduction, especially during the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream enterprises' operating rates were generally low and the purchasing willingness was not strong [3][4]. - **Cost and price relationship**: The current cost range of industrial silicon is about 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, which provides certain support for the futures price. However, the spot market price is in a dilemma between demand suppression and cost support, resulting in a dull reaction to the futures decline [4]. - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of industrial silicon before the festival was 562,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week. It is expected that the inventory in February will be in a tight balance or slightly de - stocked state, which provides certain support for the price [4]. - **Market sentiment and expectations**: The market has a bearish expectation for the long - term supply and demand. Some funds are short - allocated based on the expectation of the resumption of production in northwest factories, which exerts pressure on the futures price. The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, especially around the Spring Festival, and the light trading intensifies price fluctuations [4]. 3.3. Short - term Outlook - **Upstream resumption of production**: The resumption of production in major producing areas such as Xinjiang will be a key factor affecting market supply. If the resumption progress is faster than expected, it will bring obvious supply increase and put pressure on market prices [5]. - **Downstream demand recovery**: After the Spring Festival, the improvement of downstream demand will directly affect the price trend of industrial silicon. The operating rates and purchasing intentions of major downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon are worthy of attention [6]. - **Cost changes and price transmission**: The production cost of industrial silicon is in the range of 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, which provides certain support for the current price. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices, energy costs, and the price transmission effect of costs [6]. - **Inventory change trend**: Although the inventory in February is expected to be in a tight balance or slightly de - stocked state, the overall inventory level is still relatively high. The inventory change trend in March will be the focus of the market [6]. - **Macroeconomic and policy factors**: The macro - economic environment and relevant industrial policies will also affect the industrial silicon market. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 was 317 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14%, which is a long - term benefit for the photovoltaic industry chain, but the implementation of policies and the actual demand release rhythm need to be concerned in the short term [6].

Report Summary - **Report Type**: Daily Report - **Report Date**: February 10, 2026 - **Researcher**: Gu Xiaochun (Qualification No.: F0269198; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0000164) - **Report Subject**: Industrial Silicon Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term due to the dual impact of inventory pressure and demand expectation adjustment, and will probably remain range - bound [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - On February 10, 2026, the main contract SI2605 of industrial silicon futures showed a volatile downward trend, opening at 8430 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 8470 yuan/ton and a minimum of 8350 yuan/ton, and closing at 8375 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - The holding volume of the main contract was 303387 lots, and the total holding volume of the variety reached 418432 lots, an increase of 12176 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in market participation [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - On February 10, 2026, the leading spot price of industrial silicon in China was 9106 yuan/ton, and the futures price was at a discount to the spot price, reflecting the market's cautious expectation of the forward price [2]. 3.3. Main Influencing Factors - Industry inventory pressure: The current industrial silicon inventory is in the accumulation stage, and market concerns about warehouse receipts are high. The inventory pressure suppresses the futures price [2]. - Downstream demand expectation: The "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap (2025 - 2026)" released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association on February 5 predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will be between 180GW and 240GW, which is lower than that in 2025 but will return to an upward trend after 2027, indicating short - term pressure on photovoltaic industry demand but a long - term good outlook [2]. 3.4. Short - term Outlook - Key factors to focus on: post - holiday polysilicon spot trading volume, changes in warehouse receipts, actual start - up rate and new installed capacity in the photovoltaic industry, production capacity release and cost changes of industrial silicon production enterprises, and power supply and price changes in relevant regions [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon market are neutral, with both supply and demand in a weak - reality stage. The futures price of industrial silicon will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The futures price of industrial silicon oscillated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,755 yuan/ton, with a 0.75% increase. The trading volume was 269,300 lots, the open interest was 238,877 lots, a net decrease of 827 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net reduction of 1,799 lots, and short positions had a net increase of 5,299 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices remained stable. The price of 553 - grade in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the first quarter, the monthly average output is expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weak. The organic silicon operating rate is stable without fulfilling the expected centralized production cuts. Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated stage from anti - involution to anti - monopoly policy correction, with monthly output decreasing month - on - month. Industrial silicon inventories are high, enterprises are scattered, the market is dull, and spot prices are weakly stable, making it difficult to break through the upside. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to remain range - bound [4]. 3.4 Market News - On January 12th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,888 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. On January 9th, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped significantly, with the SI2605 contract price at 8,535 yuan/ton and a decline of 4.53%. After the sharp decline, the net long - position increased, and considering the stable spot price, the downward space is limited. It is expected to continue the convergent oscillation between 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices tumbled. The SI2605 contract price was 8,535 yuan/ton with a 4.53% decline, trading volume was 666,115 lots, and the position was 260,531 lots, with a net increase of 15,797 lots. The top twenty long - positions had a net increase of 13,580 lots, and short - positions had a net increase of 6,535 lots [4]. - Spot prices remained stable. Sichuan 553 was priced at 9,300 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 at 8,900 yuan/ton, Sichuan 421 at 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 at 9,550 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 421 at 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The sentiment of the strong varieties ebbed. Although coking coal and coke were running strongly, the daily limit of polysilicon in the intraday trading drove industrial silicon to accelerate its decline in the afternoon. The fundamentals of industrial silicon are relatively neutral compared to strong varieties, and policies have no imagination space. The spot price is stable and has not yet opened up the upward space [4]. 3.3 Market News - On January 08, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,792 lots, a decrease of 7 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the 4th week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08% [5]. - In the 4th week of December, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price rose and then fell, with the SI2605 contract price at 8900 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. The spot price remained stable. The industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral compared to stronger varieties, lacking policy imagination space. The 1 - month spot market trading was dull, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low. The expected output in January is about 350,000 tons, and there will be increasing production pressure during the wet season after the second quarter. The demand side lacks growth. The market sentiment drives short - term price fluctuations, but the overall spot price is stable and has not broken through the upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan/ton [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price of the SI2605 contract was 8900 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37%, a trading volume of 460,467 lots, an open interest of 234,611 lots (a net increase of 17,319 lots). The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 8,524 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 12,431 lots. The spot price remained stable, with the 553 - grade price in Sichuan at 9300 yuan/ton, in Yunnan at 8900 yuan/ton; the 421 - grade price in Sichuan at 9900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia at 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The commodity index has rebounded strongly recently, and the risk - taking preference of long - position funds has increased sharply. However, the industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral. There is no policy - driven potential. In January, the spot market trading was dull, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low. The expected output in January is about 350,000 tons, and there will be increasing production pressure during the wet season after the second quarter. The demand side lacks growth. The organic silicon monomer operating rate was 72.85% in December, and the concentrated production cuts were not significantly realized. The latest weekly operating rate was maintained at 69.61%. The polysilicon output in December was 116,900 tons, and in the current situation, polysilicon can only cut production, with little chance of growth. The market sentiment drives short - term price fluctuations, but the overall spot price is stable and has not broken through the upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Market News - On January 6, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the GZEE was 10,687 lots, an increase of 467 lots from the previous trading day. In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08%. In the fourth week of December, the weekly industrial silicon output was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [6].

Report Information - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Industrial Silicon - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of industrial silicon still present a loose pattern, and the unilateral driving force of the fundamentals remains limited. The short - term trading difficulty has increased significantly, and it is advisable to wait and see. The price is expected to operate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell. The SI2605 contract price was 8,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.68%. The intraday increase once exceeded 2%. The trading volume was 382,415 lots, and the open interest was 221,065 lots, a net decrease of 3,677 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 449 lots, and the short positions had a net decrease of 1,312 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price remained stable. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,200 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 was 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The expected monthly output in December is about 360,000 tons, and the weekly output is at a seasonal low. The far - month contracts face the pressure of resuming production during the wet season. On the demand side, the weekly operating load rate of silicone monomers was 69.2%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of polysilicon remained at 26,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week [4]. 2. Market News - On December 29, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,907 lots, an increase of 480 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08% [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [5]. - The quotation of polysilicon is rising, but the actual transactions are differentiated. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish stocks. However, with industry self - discipline and policy support, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and it is expected that the spot transaction price of polysilicon will remain stable in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8780 yuan/ton, with a 1.68% increase. The spot price declined slightly. The market is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern due to the lack of improvement in fundamentals [4]. - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the output has limited room for further decline, with a monthly expected output of 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the production reduction of polysilicon has led to a monthly output decline to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8780 yuan/ton, up 1.68%, with a trading volume of 351,425 lots and an open interest of 213,776 lots, a net decrease of 7,830 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net decrease of 823 lots, and short positions had a net decrease of 611 lots [4]. - The spot price decreased slightly. The Sichuan 553 price was 9200 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 price was 8900 yuan/ton, the Sichuan 421 price was 9900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9450 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2. Market Outlook - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the production decline is limited, with a monthly expected output of 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production reduction has led to a monthly output decline to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, but the supply - demand remains loose [4]. - The current industrial inventory is 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.40%. The futures inventory is 45,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures price weakened and the discount led to insufficient return momentum. The fundamentals lack improvement expectations, the spot price is generally stable, and the market is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern [4]. 3.3. Market News - On December 23, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the GZEX was 9,175 lots, an increase of 156 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 462,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 28.25% [5]. - The silicone DMC market remained stable, with the current DMC price ranging from 13,500 to 14,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to rise steadily in the short term [5]. - The polysilicon spot price was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising their prices. The downstream procurement willingness was low, and the inventory was slowly increasing. The spot transaction price is expected to remain stable in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly decreasing by 1.54% to 8305.0 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] - The spot price for industrial silicon was reported at 9603 CNY/ton, down by 45 CNY/ton from the previous trading day, with the lowest delivery price for 421 dropping to 8850 CNY/ton and the spot premium expanding to 510 CNY/ton [2] - Supply remains stable with southern production rates low and northern manufacturers slightly increasing output, indicating that the main variable currently depends on the operational status of large manufacturers [2] Group 2 - Demand is tightening as major integrated companies are increasing production cuts, leading to a slowdown in actual demand for installations, with the number of domestic companies winning provincial and municipal photovoltaic project bids decreasing, totaling 1232.8 MW, down by 345.7 MW week-on-week [2] - Future outlook suggests that while cost support may weaken, silicon prices could have some downward space; however, coal prices are expected to stabilize, limiting the potential decline in industrial silicon prices [2]