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上海华通铂银:金价上扬,而需求担忧为白银前景蒙上阴影
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 09:20
Core Viewpoint - Silver prices fell by 2.99% last week, diverging from the upward trend of gold prices, indicating weak demand overshadowing other factors [1][2][5]. Group 1: Price Movement - Silver closed at $37.02, down $1.14, contrasting with gold's 0.77% increase during the same week [5]. - The divergence between silver and gold prices suggests a growing market focus on the weak industrial demand for silver [5][6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The poor performance of silver reflects increasing concerns about the pressures on the U.S. manufacturing supply chain, with weak factory activity and PMI data alarming silver traders [6][9]. - The correlation between gold and silver has weakened, highlighting the impact of economic sluggishness [7][9]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% without providing forward guidance, reinforcing a data-dependent stance [10][11]. - Market uncertainty persists ahead of the U.S. CPI report, with expectations for a rate cut in September potentially supporting metal prices, although silver may lag if industrial confidence does not improve [11]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Key support for silver is at $36.50, with resistance at $38.51; a drop below $36.21 could lead to a further decline to $35.28 [12]. - Bulls need to reclaim $38.34 to regain control, while the 52-week moving average at $32.34 serves as a long-term strategic support, suggesting a "buy on dips" strategy remains valid [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Silver is likely to remain defensive amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the CPI report and further trade news being critical for upcoming trends [13].