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桐昆股份:公司简评报告:盈利同比改善明显,继续稳固龙头优势-20250508
Donghai Securities· 2025-05-08 08:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved year-on-year, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 101.31 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.80% year-on-year [6] - The demand for polyester filament is expected to continue improving, with the company benefiting from its leading market position and production capacity [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 101,306.83 million yuan and a net profit of 1,201.90 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 22.59% and 50.80% [3] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 194.20 billion yuan, down 8.01% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.36% year-on-year to 6.11 billion yuan [6] Market Position - The average operating load for polyester direct-spun filament exceeded 90% in 2024, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from 2023, leading to a production increase of approximately 10% [6] - The company produced 12,818.9 thousand tons of polyester filament in 2024, with sales reaching 12,978.1 thousand tons, marking year-on-year increases of 22.41% and 25.46%, respectively [6] Future Outlook - The polyester filament supply-demand balance is expected to improve further, with the industry likely to eliminate 200-250 thousand tons of outdated capacity between 2024 and 2025 [6] - The company is advancing key projects and diversifying its market presence, including the completion of various projects and the initiation of new ones, which will enhance its competitive edge [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.36 billion yuan, 3.59 billion yuan, and 4.43 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98 yuan, 1.49 yuan, and 1.84 yuan [6] - The company is expected to maintain a strong competitive advantage as an integrated leader in the industry, with a PE ratio of 11.15X for 2025 [6]