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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250827
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:36
| | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/8/26 | 元/吨 | 8750.00 | 8700.00 | 0.57% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/8/26 | 元/吨 | 7125.00 | 7125.00 | 0.00% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 2025/8/26 | 元/吨 | 7300.00 | 7250.00 | 0.69% | | 游 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/8/26 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7150.00 | 0.70% | | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/8/26 | 元/吨 | 6585.00 | 6580.00 | 0.08% | | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 2025/8/26 | 元/吨 | 5960.00 | 5960.00 | 0.00% | | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/8/26 | 元/吨 | 5950.00 | 5980.00 | -0.50% | | 装 ...
国内高频 | 暑期人流持续高位(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-08-26 16:03
文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪:工业生产有所回升,基建开工延续改善,港口货运量保持韧性。 【工业生产】工业生产有所回升。 本周,高炉开工率同比边际上行1.1pct至5.9%。中游生产景气分化, PTA、汽车开工表现偏弱,同比分别+0.1pct 至-6.6%、+1.1pct 至-5.9%;纯碱、涤纶长丝开工好于去年同 期,同比分别+0.1pct至5.8%、+0.9pct至3.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工延续改善。 本周,全国粉磨开工率同比-1.5pct至-5.6%;水泥出货率仍在低位, 同比+0.8pct至-2.9%。沥青开工率延续上行,同比+0.5pct至8.6%。 【下游需求】人流出行仍在高位,港口货运量保持韧性。 本周,全国新房日均成交面积偏弱,同比+2.9pct 至-6.3% ;其中,一线成交有所回升。货运方面,与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量大幅回 升,同比分别+7.1pct至9.7%、+6.1pct至14.8%;集运价格有所回落、环比-1.6%,东南亚航线运价小幅回 落。作为对比,人流出行强度保持高位,全国迁徙规模指数同比-5.2pct至16.6%。 ...
聚酯数据日报-20250826
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 12:38
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/8/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 493.6 1281.0 | 492.9 1280. 0 | -0. 70 -0. 91 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情微涨,原油行情窄幅震荡,下游聚酯产 销整体平淡,华东160万吨PTA新装置出料,华南另外 | | | | | | | 250万吨装置尚未官宣停车,PTA虽然去库存但并未缺 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3571 | 1. 3574 | 0. 0003 | 货。 | | | CFR中国PX | 857 | 859 | 2 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 270 ...
可转债择券系列专题:“反内卷”板块转债精选
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-26 09:00
可转债择券系列专题 (3)转债价格仍处于低位,具有一定债底价值支撑。基于我们的统计,"反内卷" 相关行业大部分转债转换价值低于 120 元,较多转债位于 60 元-90 元,90 元- 120 元转换价值区间内,债性/平衡转债相比股性转债更具债底保护,因此从转 债特性来看也较适合绝对收益资金的风险偏好。 "反内卷"板块转债精选 2025 年 08 月 26 日 ➢ 总体逻辑及布局思路 当前"反内卷"相关转债是较具性价比的绝对收益资产。当前股票和转债表现较 好,吸引部分绝对收益型资金从纯债端切向权益资产,我们基于以下三条理由认 为"反内卷"板块转债的仓位和择券是后市的"胜负手": (1)"反内卷"板块转债数量较多,可承接的资金容量大。参考申万一级行业分 类,我们认为电力设备、钢铁、基础化工、建材、交运、煤炭、农林牧渔、石油 石化、有色金属行业或与本轮"反内卷"较为相关。我们统计了各个行业存续的 转债数量,基础化工和电力设备行业存续的转债较多,有色金属、农林牧渔等行 业也存续一定的转债。转债数量较多意味着板块资金容量大,若后市"反内卷" 超预期推进,或对相关行业正股具有较强的上涨驱动力,对转债指数也可能有较 强的 ...
价格全方位多维跟踪体系(2025.08)反内卷语境看价格结构性修复
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-25 11:05
证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 价格全方位多维跟踪体系(2025.08) 反内卷语境看价格结构性修复 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 从绝对水平来看:截至 2025 年 8 月上旬,49 种主要产品中共有 19 种价格上 涨、28 种下降、2 种持平。上涨品种主要集中在上游煤炭(如无烟煤、焦炭 等)、中游农林(豆粕、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等)以及下游化工(硫酸、甲醇、 涤纶长丝等),表现出供需趋紧与季节性需求带动的特征;下降品种则以黑 色金属(中板、角钢、热卷)、有色金属(铜、铝、锌等)、建材(水泥、 玻璃)、部分化工(PVC、顺丁橡胶、尿素)和能源(液化气、天然气、油 品)为主。下游需求不足及供应压力较大,整体价格承压。总体来看,价格 分化明显,上游能源与部分化工品景气回升,而黑色金属和建材链继续承压。 从同比数据来看:工业品同比整体仍在下行通道,但降幅逐步磨底持平。钢 铁、部分化工品率先修复转正;有色金属、部分化工龙头品种表现亮眼,硫 酸同比涨幅收窄至 49%;而煤炭、焦炭、传统建材、部分石化产品则仍深处 低位,市场进入"结构性修复+行业间分化"阶段。 上/中/下游不同产业链节点代表产品价格变化 近一月 ...
反内卷,化工从“吞金兽”到“摇钱树”
2025-08-25 09:13
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.
石油化工行业周报:韩国计划削减高达25%石脑油裂解产能,中国炼化景气修复有望加快-20250824
石油石化 2025 年 08 月 24 日 韩国计划削减高达 25%石脑油裂解 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 产能,中国炼化景气修复有望加快 看好 —— 石油化工行业周报(2025/8/18—2025/8/24) 本期投资提示: 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 1. 本周观点及推荐 1.1 本周思考:韩国计划削减高达 25%石脑油裂解产能, 中国炼化景气修复有望加快 韩国石化企业利润大幅下滑,陷入经营困境。韩国头部石化企业主要有 LG 化学、SK innovation、乐天石化等,2024-2025 ...
大炼化周报:长丝需求有所回暖,库存、产销情况改善-20250824
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-24 10:28
证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号:S1500525060002 邮箱:liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号:S1500524040001 邮箱:liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编:100031 本期内容提要: [Table_Title] 大炼化周报:长丝需求有所回暖,库存、产销 情况改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪:截至 8 月 22 日当周,国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2431.20 元/吨,环比变化+29.59 元/吨(+1.23%); 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1080.63 元/吨,环比变化-29.81 元/吨(- 2.68%)。截至 8 月 22 日当周,布伦 ...
行业周报:万华化学TDI新装置投产,中国化学国内单套规模最大粗苯加氢项目中交-20250824
Huafu Securities· 2025-08-24 07:19
行 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 24 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报:万华化学 TDI 新装置投产,中国化学 国内单套规模最大粗苯加氢项目中交 投资要点: 本周行业主要动态: 万华化学 TDI 新装置投产。 万华化学 8 月 19 日公告,其福建工业园 新建 TDI 二期装置(36 万吨/年)已于近期建成投产,并产出合格产品。同时, 万华化学还披露,子公司匈牙利宝思德化学公司 MDI(40 万吨/年)、TDI(25 万吨/年)等一体化装置及相关配套装置于 7 月 23 日开始陆续停产检修。截 至目前,上述 TDI 装置的停产检修已经结束,恢复正常生产;MDI 装置待 复产后另行公告。公告称,按照年度检修计划,公司烟台产业园 30 万吨/ 年 TDI 装置及相关配套装置将于 8 月 19 日开始陆续停产检修,预计检修 40 天左右。万华化学全球最大的 MDI 和 TDI 供应商,截至 2024 年末,拥 有 TDI 产能 111 万吨/年。随着福建工业园新建 TDI 二期装置的投产,其 TDI 总产能进一步提升。(资料来源:中国化工报、万华化学) 中国化学国内单套规模最大粗苯加 ...
恒逸石化(000703):2025 年半年报点评:Q2业绩显著回暖,加速布局高附加值差异化产品
EBSCN· 2025-08-23 11:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a significant recovery in Q2 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter, driven by improved refining and polyester filament price spreads [4][7] - The company is accelerating its layout of high-value differentiated products, with a focus on biodegradable fibers and other high-margin products, positioning itself for future growth [6][7] - The Brunei refining project is expected to benefit from the expanding supply-demand gap in the Southeast Asian refined oil market, enhancing the company's competitive advantage [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 55.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 230 million yuan, down 47.3% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 28.79 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year but up 6.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 953.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 240.2% [3][4] Market Conditions - The average Brent crude oil price in Q2 2025 was $66.76 per barrel, down 22% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. The price spread for refining improved significantly, indicating a recovery in the company's performance despite a challenging market environment [4] Growth Prospects - The company has a total polyester production capacity of 13.25 million tons per year, with a focus on differentiated products. The proportion of differentiated fiber production has increased to 27%, leading the industry [6] - The Southeast Asian refined oil market is projected to face a supply-demand gap of 68 million tons by 2026, which the company is well-positioned to exploit through its Brunei refining project [5][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the declining industry outlook, with expected net profits of 580 million yuan, 764 million yuan, and 965 million yuan respectively. The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's future growth potential [7][8]