证券研究报告|行业投资策略 基础化工 行业评级强于大市（维持评级） 2026年1月12日 化工2026年度策略：供需再平衡，化工新起点 证券分析师： 李骥 执业证书编号：S0210524080008 沈颖洁 执业证书编号：S0210524050018 韩广智 执业证书编号：S0210524050009 周丹露执业证书编号：S0210524050020 孙范彦卿 执业证书编号：S0210524050021 底部企稳，拐点将至。复盘2025年，化工行业经历了盈利与估值的探底，展望2026年，我们认为盈利有望触底回升。行业处于供需再 平衡的新起点：供给侧的反内卷政策正在重塑竞争格局，而以AI算力、半导体先进制造、人形机器人为代表的新质生产力将引领新一轮 成长。 投资主线： 风险提示：全球宏观经济复苏不及预期，原油及主要原料价格大幅波动，供给侧"反内卷"及产能出清进度不及预期，国际贸易摩擦与 地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 摘要 1. 周期维度：资本开支回落，龙头白马有望率先修复。化工行业资本开支高峰已过，2025年下半年行业固定资产投资转负，标志着产 能扩张 ...

1. 生产高频跟踪：工业生产边际改善，建筑业开工表现分化 工业生产中，高炉开工有所改善，表观消费则有回落。 上周（1月5日至1月9日），高炉开工率环比 0.4%，同比回升1.3个百分点至2.2%；钢材表观消费环比0.6%、同比回落1.5个百分点至0.6%。钢材社会库存 延续回落，环比-2.5%。 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 、耿佩璇 报告正文 图 39: 上周，高炉开工率有所回升 全国高炉开工率 (247家) 2022 2024 2023 ■ 2025 2026 % 85 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月12月 资料来源： Wind、申万宏源研究 图 40：上周，钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1300 厅吨 1100 900 700 500 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 资料来源：iFind、申万宏源研究 资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究 图 43：上周，PTA 开工率同比回升 国内PTA开工率 2023 · 2024 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/12 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2026/1/8 | 2026/1/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 416. 2 | 432. 7 | 16. 50 | 成交情况: PTA:虽然原油上涨,但需求淡季来临的利空影响占据 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 2061. 4 | 1963.5 | -97.91 | 上风,下游涤纶长丝产销仍然平淡,PTA行情下跌,现 货基差走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.6816 | 1. 6244 | -0. 0571 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 886 | 892 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 353 | 341 | -13 | | | | PTA主 ...

装置检修动态: 西北一套120万吨PTA装置重启,该装置上周初停车。 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2025- 2026- 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-09 2025-07 2025-11 05 01 09 05 09 01 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 ·DTY现金流 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2025- 2026- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 20 ...

2026 年度化工策略-新材料大有可为，"反内卷"下周期 进入右侧 20260107 摘要 锂电材料市场虽有回调，但需求仍可能超预期上涨。玻纤行业与化工行 业逻辑相似，2026 年业绩确定性较高，中国巨石粗纱供给增长低于需 求，中材科技锂电隔膜价格已现拐点。 化工行业资本开支和固定资产投资下降，显示供给端变化较少。化纤类 资产整体供需平衡表向好，氨纶、涤纶、有机硅等品种开工率高。推荐 中游核心资产龙头白马股，如万华化学和华鲁恒升。 期底部的中游核心资产，如万华化学和华鲁恒升等公司。价值主线则主要是资 源品。 锂电材料领域有哪些值得关注的细分市场？ Q&A 过去半个月化工行业的行情表现如何？其核心驱动力是什么？ 过去半个月，化工行业整体行情表现强劲，主要集中在中游核心资产。我们认 为其核心驱动力在于低盈利、低估值和低配置下机构的主动增配机会。此外， 这些中游核心资产相较于 2021 年有显著的产能扩张，即便不考虑乐观的价格 假设，其盈利也有很大的上升空间。 化工和新材料领域的年度策略有哪些核心主线？ 核心资产如万华化学和华鲁恒升，即使不考虑价格上涨，产能扩张也带 来盈利增长空间，中泰证券年度策略聚焦成长（AI、 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic chemical sector is likely at the bottom of its cycle, with no need to wait for significant improvements in fundamentals before investing. Stock prices often lead the market, indicating potential investment opportunities when future fundamental changes are anticipated [2][4]. Key Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2026 are concentrated in traditional cyclical industries and technology materials, particularly in AI-related sectors such as energy storage materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) and storage materials (e.g., Yake Technology) [1][6]. - Recommended leading companies in the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua Co., due to their low valuations and high profit elasticity [1][8]. Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Strongly recommended as a top investment choice due to its outlier effect and continuous growth catalysts. Expected revenue for 2026 is projected to reach 400 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 16 billion yuan [1][12][14]. - The company has a significant profit increase potential with every 1,000 yuan increase in MDI and TDI prices, translating to a net profit increase of 3.4 billion yuan [12][14]. Hualu Hengsheng - The company is expected to achieve annualized quarterly performance exceeding 5 billion yuan in 2026, supported by multi-category layout and technological upgrades [1][17][18]. Dongcai Technology - Notable for its advantages in new energy materials, with expectations to turn losses into profits as the overall profitability in the new energy sector improves [1][13][15]. Baofeng Energy - Expected to maintain stable annual profits between 12 billion to 13 billion yuan following the release of new capacity at its Ningxia base. The company benefits from the cyclical changes in the coal chemical industry and has diversified its product offerings [3][19][20]. Industry Trends and Signals - The potassium fertilizer industry is expected to experience tight supply and demand in 2026, maintaining high prices, while the phosphate market outlook remains stable with manageable supply increases [3][22][23]. - The tire industry is impacted by EU anti-dumping policies, prompting leading companies to expand overseas to increase market share [3][27][28]. - The spandex industry is at a cyclical bottom, with potential supply-side clearing effects anticipated due to the bankruptcy of a major player, which could improve market conditions [3][34][35]. Additional Insights - Investment in underperforming sectors is justified as they have likely reflected most negative factors in their stock prices, presenting potential for positive marginal changes [11]. - The refrigerant industry, while considered an "old story," shows strong certainty and potential for long-term investment due to ongoing price support [24]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to see price increases driven by domestic demand and external supply constraints, with companies like Dongyue showing significant elasticity [25][26]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted a range of investment opportunities across various sectors within the chemical industry, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and emerging trends. Investors are encouraged to consider both cyclical recovery and technological advancements when making investment decisions.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA market has cost support and is in the process of inventory reduction, with a narrow upward trend in prices and a strengthening of the spot basis. The demand is gradually weakening, and the processing fee has declined. The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, driven by speculative funds, but there is also fundamental support, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester load remains high, with increased market inventory hoarding willingness and a rapidly strengthening basis [2]. - The MEG market shows a continuous upward trend in futures prices, with the spot price in Zhangjiagang rising accordingly, but the basis negotiation is weakening. Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, but the market supply pressure continues to increase due to new device production. The price is difficult to get effective support under the backdrop of falling coal prices, but it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 421.7 yuan/barrel on January 5, 2026, to 428.2 yuan/barrel on January 6, 2026, with an increase of 6.50 yuan [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased by 56.76 yuan, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0084. The PTA主力期价 rose from 5,046 yuan/ton to 5,150 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5,030 yuan/ton to 5,080 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 46.9 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 7.1 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased by 2,238 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 3,732 yuan/ton to 3,838 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton. The MEG内盘 price rose from 3,640 yuan/ton to 3,666 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The PX operating rate remained at 87.87% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate remained at 77.40% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate increased from 60.81% to 60.87%, with an increase of 0.06% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load decreased from 88.10% to 88.04%, with a decrease of 0.06% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F rose by 25 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 62 yuan/ton. The price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 52 yuan/ton. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 50% to 5%, with a decrease of 45% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose by 45 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 7 yuan/ton. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 53% to 20%, with a decrease of 33% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips rose by 25 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The chip sales rate remained at 47% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted, which had stopped at the beginning of last week [4].

来源：赵伟宏观探索 1、生产高频跟踪：工业生产走势分化，建筑业开工边际回落 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均有回升。上周（12月28日至01月03日），高炉开工率环比0.7%，同 比回升1.3个百分点至0.9%；钢材表观消费环比0.9%、同比上升4.4个百分点至2.2%。钢材社会库存延续回 落，环比-2.5%。 图 30: 上周, 高炉开工率有所回升 国高炉开工率 (247家) 2024 2022 2023 2025 2026 85 % 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源： Wind、申万宏源研究 图 31: 上周, 钢材周表观消费小幅回升 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1300 力啊 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源: iFind、申万宏源研究 石化链、消费链开工整体偏弱。上周（12月28日至01月03日），石化链中，纯碱开工率环比-1.7%、同 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿 佩璇 报告正文 1、生产高频跟踪：工业生产走势分化，建筑业开工边际回落 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均有回升。 上周（12月28日至01月03日），高炉开工率环比0.7%，同比回升1.3个百分点至0.9%；钢材表观消费环比 0.9%、同比上升4.4个百分点至2.2%。钢材社会库存延续回落，环比-2.5%。 石化链、消费链开工整体偏弱。 上周（12月28日至01月03日），石化链中，纯碱开工率环比-1.7%、同比回落4.3个百分点至-2.4%；PTA开工率环比0.2%、同比回落 1.8个百分点至-8.4%。下游消费链中，涤纶长丝开工率环比0.3%、同比上升0.8个百分点至1.8%；汽车半钢胎开工率环比-2.7%、同比回落2.1个百分点至-9.2%。 图 33: 上周，纯碱开工率同比回落 纯碱开工率 - 2022 · 2024 =2023 ■ 2026 = 另一 2025 100 90 80 70 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月12月 资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究 图 34: 上周，PTA 开工率同比回落 国内PTA开工率 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿 佩璇 报告正文 1、生产高频跟踪：工业生产走势分化，建筑业开工边际回落 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均有回升。 上周（12月28日至01月03日），高炉开工率环比0.7%，同比回升1.3个百分点至0.9%；钢材表观消费环比 0.9%、同比上升4.4个百分点至2.2%。钢材社会库存延续回落，环比-2.5%。 石化链、消费链开工整体偏弱。 上周（12月28日至01月03日），石化链中，纯碱开工率环比-1.7%、同比回落4.3个百分点至-2.4%；PTA开工率环比0.2%、同比回落 1.8个百分点至-8.4%。下游消费链中，涤纶长丝开工率环比0.3%、同比上升0.8个百分点至1.8%；汽车半钢胎开工率环比-2.7%、同比回落2.1个百分点至-9.2%。 图 33: 上周，纯碱开工率同比回落 纯碱开工率 - 2022 · 2024 =2023 ■ 2026 = 另一 2025 100 90 80 70 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月12月 资料来源：Wind、申万宏源研究 图 34: 上周，PTA 开工率同比回落 国内PTA开工率 ...