Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic chemical sector is likely at the bottom of its cycle, with no need to wait for significant improvements in fundamentals before investing. Stock prices often lead the market, indicating potential investment opportunities when future fundamental changes are anticipated [2][4]. Key Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2026 are concentrated in traditional cyclical industries and technology materials, particularly in AI-related sectors such as energy storage materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) and storage materials (e.g., Yake Technology) [1][6]. - Recommended leading companies in the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua Co., due to their low valuations and high profit elasticity [1][8]. Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Strongly recommended as a top investment choice due to its outlier effect and continuous growth catalysts. Expected revenue for 2026 is projected to reach 400 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 16 billion yuan [1][12][14]. - The company has a significant profit increase potential with every 1,000 yuan increase in MDI and TDI prices, translating to a net profit increase of 3.4 billion yuan [12][14]. Hualu Hengsheng - The company is expected to achieve annualized quarterly performance exceeding 5 billion yuan in 2026, supported by multi-category layout and technological upgrades [1][17][18]. Dongcai Technology - Notable for its advantages in new energy materials, with expectations to turn losses into profits as the overall profitability in the new energy sector improves [1][13][15]. Baofeng Energy - Expected to maintain stable annual profits between 12 billion to 13 billion yuan following the release of new capacity at its Ningxia base. The company benefits from the cyclical changes in the coal chemical industry and has diversified its product offerings [3][19][20]. Industry Trends and Signals - The potassium fertilizer industry is expected to experience tight supply and demand in 2026, maintaining high prices, while the phosphate market outlook remains stable with manageable supply increases [3][22][23]. - The tire industry is impacted by EU anti-dumping policies, prompting leading companies to expand overseas to increase market share [3][27][28]. - The spandex industry is at a cyclical bottom, with potential supply-side clearing effects anticipated due to the bankruptcy of a major player, which could improve market conditions [3][34][35]. Additional Insights - Investment in underperforming sectors is justified as they have likely reflected most negative factors in their stock prices, presenting potential for positive marginal changes [11]. - The refrigerant industry, while considered an "old story," shows strong certainty and potential for long-term investment due to ongoing price support [24]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to see price increases driven by domestic demand and external supply constraints, with companies like Dongyue showing significant elasticity [25][26]. Conclusion - The conference call highlighted a range of investment opportunities across various sectors within the chemical industry, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and emerging trends. Investors are encouraged to consider both cyclical recovery and technological advancements when making investment decisions.

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 28 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：11 月 TDI 出口量创单月历史最高，中 国合成树脂协会倡议规范聚甲醛行业秩序 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.88%，创业板指数上涨 3.9%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，中信基础化工指数上涨 5.41%，申万化工指数上涨 4.23%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为膜 材料(12.18%)、合成树脂(8.23%)、磷肥及磷化工(6.5%)、钾肥(5.91%)、有机硅 (5.39%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为轮胎(-1.5%)、食品及饲料添加 剂(0.41%)、农药(0.96%)、绵纶(1.12%)、印染化学品(1.33%)。 投资主线二：消费电子有望逐渐复苏，关注上游材料企业。随着下游消费 电子需求逐渐回暖复苏，面板产业链相关标的有望充分受益。部分国内企业在 面板产业链部分环节成功实现进口替代，切入下游头部面板厂供应链，自身α 属性充足。随着面板产业链景气度有望回暖，头部显示材料厂商有望享受行业 β共振。建议关注：东材科技（ ...

Group 1: Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is expected to experience a cyclical recovery and industrial upgrade by 2026, following three years of bottom-range operation for chemical products [1] - The growth rate of ongoing projects in the industry continues to decline, and the new capacity release is nearing its end [1] - Domestic policies aimed at stable growth and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle are anticipated to support a mild recovery in traditional chemical product demand [1] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to accelerate the cyclical turning point, benefiting core chemical assets with global competitive advantages, leading to profit and valuation recovery [1] - Sub-industries such as organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, soda ash, PVC, glyphosate, and urea are expected to see profit recovery due to industry self-discipline and price control measures [1] Group 2: Pesticide Industry - The pesticide industry is entering a phase where inventory reduction is nearing completion, with signs of recovery in market conditions [2] - The global pesticide channel inventory is expected to approach reasonable levels by 2025, with some products already seeing price increases [2] - The industry is anticipated to shift towards capacity reduction in the next two years, favoring companies with cost advantages and strong market channels [2] - The concentration of the industry and the pricing power of leading enterprises are expected to increase [2] - Domestic companies are making significant progress in the research, production, and marketing of innovative pesticides, with leading firms likely to achieve high value-added upgrades [2] Group 3: Tire Industry - The tire industry is facing an upgrade in international trade barriers, which may present opportunities for companies with global layouts [3] - The EU's anti-dumping investigation against Chinese tires is expected to conclude by early 2026, potentially leading to higher tariffs [3] - If high anti-dumping duties are imposed, domestic semi-steel tire exports may be hindered, creating a demand gap in the EU market that could be filled by other regions [3] - This supply-demand mismatch may lead to price increases, benefiting leading tire companies with overseas production bases and expansion plans [3] Group 4: Emerging Industries - The path to carbon reduction is challenging, but the AI industry continues to thrive alongside the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), bio-based materials, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), electronic resins, liquid cooling materials, and lithium battery materials [4] - Europe is set to initiate its SAF era in 2025, with mandatory standards for bio-based plastics expected by 2027 [4] - CCUS is a core component of the European Green Deal, and similar policies are anticipated in China under its dual carbon strategy [4] - The demand for AI computing power remains strong, with electronic resins and liquid cooling materials identified as key upgrade directions [4] - AIDC storage is expected to become a significant growth area for lithium battery materials [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [7]. Core Views - The report highlights the strong competitiveness of domestic tire companies and suggests focusing on scarce growth targets within the tire sector [4]. - It anticipates a gradual recovery in consumer electronics, recommending attention to upstream material companies [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of certain cyclical industries and the potential for inventory destocking to lead to a bottom reversal [5]. - It notes the positive outlook for leading chemical companies as the economy improves and demand recovers, suggesting that these companies will benefit significantly [9]. - The report also points out supply disruptions in vitamin products, particularly due to BASF's announcement regarding vitamin A and E supply issues [9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86%. The CSI 300 Index saw a rise of 1.28%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index fell by 0.47%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index increased by 0.13% [15]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector included tires (6.31%), soda ash (3.33%), rubber additives (3.28%), potassium fertilizer (2.2%), and modified plastics (1.68%). The bottom five were organic silicon (-4.55%), nylon (-2.3%), other chemical raw materials (-1.71%), other chemical products III (-1.37%), and viscose (-1.34%) [18]. Key Industry Dynamics - Hunstman announced a price increase of €350/ton for all MDI products in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, effective immediately due to ongoing pressures from raw material, energy, and logistics costs [3]. - Brazil initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese butyl acrylate, which may impact trade dynamics in the chemical sector [3]. Investment Themes - **Tires**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive position, with specific companies like Sailun, Senqcia, General Tire, and Linglong Tire recommended for attention [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A recovery in demand is expected, with upstream material companies in the panel supply chain highlighted for potential benefits [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: The report suggests focusing on industries with strong resilience and potential for inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals [5]. - **Leading Chemical Companies**: As the economy improves, leading companies like Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy are expected to benefit from demand recovery and price stabilization [9]. - **Vitamins**: Supply disruptions in vitamin A and E due to BASF's announcement are noted, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hope Liuhe recommended for monitoring [9].

化工板块今日（12月5日）震荡盘整，截至发稿，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）场内价 格涨0.13%。 成份股方面，农药、钾肥、聚氨酯等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，扬农化工、亚钾国际双双大涨 超2%，鲁西化工、万华化学、华峰化学等多股跟涨超1%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 · | | | | | | F9 盘箱盘后 婴加 九50 面迁 工具 @ 00 | | 4. TETF 1 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 10:18 价 0.791 温康 0.001(0.13%) 均价 0.791 版交量 98 (OPV 0.7914 ) | | | | | | | +0.001 +0.139 | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 10:18:44 交易中 | | 0 / 8 + | | 0.732 | | | | | | | | ...

智通财经APP获悉，中原证券发布研报称，未来随着我国宏观经济持续向好与消费刺激政策的推动，化 工行业下游需求有望继续复苏。随着化工行业整体固定资产投资力度的放缓以及需求复苏的推动，未来 行业整体景气有望边际复苏，盈利有望底部回升。其中部分子行业由于成本端优势、供给端约束和需求 端复苏等积极因素，行业景气度表现相对较好，从而带来结构性的投资机会。维持行业"同步大市"的投 资评级。 中原证券主要观点如下： 下游需求的逐步回升以及行业新增产能投放的放缓 2024年底以来化工行业利润下滑态势逐步放缓，景气逐渐寻底。从板块经营情况来看，受益于行业供需 格局优化、需求复苏等因素带来的景气提升，农化、氟化工以及新能源相关等子行业收入利润实现较快 增长。此外有机硅、粘胶、纯碱、锦纶等产业受行业产能快速扩张，行业竞争加剧等因素影响，利润下 滑幅度较大。 随着反内卷政策的持续推进，在行政监管与行业自律等多项举措作用下，未来化工行业的供给端约束有 望明显加强。同时随着行业固定资产投资力度的下降，行业产能过剩的格局有望逐步扭转，推动景气的 逐步复苏。叠加环保、安监、减排等方面的监管要求的提升，对化工行业供给侧迎来新的约束，推动行 业 ...

Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is gradually entering a prosperous phase, with investment opportunities identified from both supply and demand sides [1][7] - The industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to the gradual rebound in downstream demand and a slowdown in new capacity releases [7][11] - The report maintains a "market perform" rating for the industry, suggesting a focus on integrated leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [7][8] Industry Overview - The chemical industry has shown signs of bottoming out, with profitability stabilizing after a decline in 2023 [11][15] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a revenue of CNY 67,246.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while total profits fell by 4.4% [13][17] - The chemical product price index has seen a cumulative decline of 10.29% since the beginning of 2025, indicating ongoing price pressures [13][14] Sub-Industry Performance - Among 33 sub-industries, 18 reported revenue growth, with significant increases in carbon fiber (49.12%), synthetic resin (33.63%), and lithium battery chemicals (21.31%) [17][18] - Conversely, industries such as organic silicon and soda ash experienced substantial revenue declines of 17.37% and 15.75%, respectively [18][21] - Profitability varied widely, with pesticide, polyester, and fluorochemical sectors showing strong profit growth, while organic silicon and rubber products faced severe profit declines [18][22] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as organic silicon and polyester filament, as well as those benefiting from rapid growth in downstream energy storage demand, like phosphate chemicals [7][8] - The biobased fuel industry is highlighted as having significant growth potential due to national policy support and the dual carbon policy [7][8] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes structural opportunities within the industry, driven by regulatory changes and demand recovery [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing slight upward movement after initial low-level fluctuations, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific sub-sectors like ammonium explosives, potash, and phosphate chemicals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a price increase of 0.13% during the trading session, reflecting a slight recovery in the sector [1][2]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Guangdong Hongda, Yada International, and Salt Lake Co., have shown significant gains, with Guangdong Hongda rising over 4% [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The chemical industry is positioned at a dual bottom in terms of valuation and profitability, with expectations of demand improvement due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and stabilization in global political conditions [1][3]. - Cost pressures are anticipated to ease, with oil and coal prices expected to remain under pressure, leading to weaker cost support for chemical products [1][3]. - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector is projected to decline by 12.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [1][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that may benefit from supply-side improvements and have high profitability elasticity, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament [3][4]. - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's rebound, as it tracks a comprehensive index covering various sub-sectors, with significant allocations to leading companies [4].

Group 1: Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts Brent crude oil prices to range between $60-70 per barrel by 2026, with costs expected to stabilize [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing negative capital expenditure growth since 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes expanding domestic demand, combined with the onset of the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to open up demand for chemical products [1] - A dual bottom in supply and demand is anticipated, with strong policy expectations catalyzing a potential cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, leading to a "Davis Double Play" from valuation recovery to earnings growth [1] Group 2: Specific Chemical Sector Recommendations - PTA industry is operating at low levels, with increasing calls for anti-involution; recommended companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xinfon Ming, and Tongkun [1] - Polyester filament capacity is becoming concentrated, with industry self-discipline enhancing cyclical elasticity; recommended companies include Xinfon Ming, Tongkun, and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The spandex industry is expected to see increased concentration; recommended companies include Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [1] - Global demand for pesticides is improving, with bottom-priced varieties likely to rebound; recommended companies include Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Guangxin Shares, and Lier Chemical [1] - Organic silicon capacity expansion is nearing completion, with supply-demand dynamics expected to improve; recommended companies include Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xin'an Shares, and Dongyue Silicon Material [1] - The titanium dioxide industry is facing challenges and opportunities; recommended company is Longbai Group [1] - Refining capacity is being optimized, with a shift from oil to chemicals enhancing effective supply; recommended companies include Sinopec, PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical [1] Group 3: Demand-Supported Chemical Sectors - Strong pricing power from suppliers is expected to sustain high demand for potash fertilizers; recommended companies include Yara International and Dongfang Iron Tower [2] - Phosphate supply and demand remain tight, benefiting resource-based companies; recommended companies include Batian Shares, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, and Chuanheng Shares [2] - Strict quota policies are expected to sustain high demand for refrigerants; recommended companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [2] - Amino acids are expected to maintain their upward trend, with overseas capacity gradually exiting; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe, Andisu, and Meihua Biological Technology [2] - The chlorinated sugar market is anticipated to see anti-involution, with significant potential for allulose; recommended companies include Jinhui Industrial, Bailong Chuangyuan, and Baolingbao Biology [2] - Vitamins are leading the current round of chemical price increases, entering the second phase; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe and Zhejiang Medicine [2] - The EU's preliminary anti-dumping ruling is expected to reassess the value of overseas tires; recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin [2] - The civil explosives industry is developing steadily, with policy guidance likely accelerating industry consolidation; recommended companies include Guangdong Hongda, Yipuli, and Jiangnan Chemical [2] Group 4: New Materials and Technologies - Lightweight humanoid robots may benefit from PEEK as a key solution; recommended companies include Zhongyan Shares, Water Shares, and Guoen Shares [3] - AI is driving global demand for computing power, with electronic-grade PPO expected to grow; recommended companies include Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology [3] - The domestic substitution of core chip materials, particularly photoresists, is accelerating; recommended companies include Wanrun Shares and Dinglong Shares [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a dual-driven strategy where technology and cyclical sectors are rebalanced, highlighting opportunities in the chemical industry under the "anti-involution" trend [4][14][15] - The report notes that from Q3 2025, both technology and cyclical sectors have shown synchronized growth, indicating a shift in market dynamics [15][18] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in supply-demand dynamics, with capital expenditure nearing its end and a significant decrease in ongoing projects [4][5][25] Group 2 - The chemical sector is positioned to enter a new cycle of prosperity, driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to enhance both performance and valuation [5][31][65] - The report identifies that the chemical industry has advantages over traditional cyclical sectors like steel and coal, particularly in capacity optimization and high-end transformation paths [25][30] - The report highlights that the chemical industry is experiencing a significant reduction in capital expenditure, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in ongoing projects as of H1 2025 [25][33] Group 3 - The report suggests that the domestic demand is stabilizing, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption, which is expected to benefit the chemical sector [35][42] - The chemical industry has shown resilience in exports despite trade tensions, with a notable increase in export volumes to ASEAN, EU, and India [42][47] - The report indicates that the chemical industry is likely to see a dual uplift in performance and valuation, particularly when compared to the refrigerant sector, which is currently experiencing high demand [66][68]