行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停，巴斯 夫再度调高 MDI 报价 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.98%，创业板指数上涨 1.05%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，中信基础化工指数上涨 6.21%，申万化工指数上涨 7.15%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为磷 肥及磷化工(18.51%)、纯碱(14.02%)、复合肥(13.17%)、钛白粉(10.63%)、有机 硅(9.76%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为印染化学品(1.39%)、涂料油 墨颜料(1.81%)、改性塑料(2.13%)、轮胎(2.63%)、涤纶(2.75%)。 本周行业主要动态： 乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停。韩国政府 2 月 25 日宣布提供 2.1 万亿韩 元(约合人民币 100 亿元)的财政和税收支持，用于乐天化学公司和 HD 现代 化学公司在大山工业园区的重组项目。这是韩国石化行业大规模自救计划 中首个获批的重组项目。根据重组计划，乐天化学将把位于韩国忠清南道 的大仙 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in robotics showcased during the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, emphasizing the progress in hardware, control systems, and bionic technologies [2][11] - The polyester industry is experiencing a recovery, with leading companies benefiting from an integrated supply chain and improved demand dynamics [3][12] Mechanical Industry - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala featured performances by four companies, demonstrating cutting-edge achievements in embodied intelligence, including hardware, control, and bionic operations [2][11] - The performance of robots exceeded expectations, serving as a catalyst for the sector, with recommendations to focus on domestic robot supply chain companies [2][11] Polyester Industry - The polyester supply chain is witnessing a recovery, with profits shifting towards the filament segment due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3][12] - Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to contribute stable investment returns, with projected annual contributions exceeding 1.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, significantly smoothing out the cyclical fluctuations of the filament business [3][12] - The report forecasts a steady increase in net profit for the company, with estimates of 2.046 billion yuan, 3.693 billion yuan, and 4.987 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong growth potential [3][12]

化工板块周五（2月6日）逆市猛攻。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘低开后迅速拉 升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.45%，而后持续高位震荡，尾盘略有回落，最终逆市收涨2.37%。 成份股方面，锂电、磷化工、石化等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，恩捷股份涨停，宏达股份、浙 江龙盛、天赐材料等大涨超6%，恒逸石化、荣盛石化、华峰化学等亦涨幅居前。 | | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 图8 | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九特 画球 工具 @ (2) > | | 44. TETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DOG | | | | 516020Hz工ETF] 15:00 � 0.949 通款 0.022(2.37%) 均价 0.947 服交量 0.10PV 0.9491 | | | | | 2026/02/06 | 0 946 | | +0.022 +2.379 | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.95 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.24% to 78.88% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding investment income from joint ventures, is expected to be between 910 million and 1.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 85.34% to 126.08% [1] - The company expects a non-recurring net profit of 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 60.55% to 81.96% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The polyester filament supply-demand structure has improved, leading to a significant increase in profit per ton despite upstream PTA losses [1] - The average market prices for polyester filament products have decreased, with POY, FDY, and DTY prices dropping by 9.1%, 11.9%, and 9.6% respectively [2] - The effective production capacity of polyester filament in China is projected to reach 46.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.24% [2] Group 3: Industry Position and Strategy - The company maintains its position as the largest polyester filament producer globally, with a comprehensive supply chain that includes PTA and MEG production [3] - The company has secured high-quality coal resources in the Turpan region, with a reserve of 500 million tons, and plans to launch a coal gas project by the end of 2026 or early 2027 [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.08 billion, 2.91 billion, and 3.54 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86, 1.21, and 1.48 yuan [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **General Economic Outlook**: The Chinese economy shows signs of stabilization, with nominal GDP growth expected to enhance corporate profits. Supply contraction outpacing demand may improve industry prices and corporate earnings, highlighting opportunities in cyclical industries [1][2][3]. Real Estate Sector - **Investment Value**: The real estate sector is deemed to have high investment value, with significant growth in second-hand housing transaction volumes and a narrowing decline in listing prices. Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have seen listing volumes drop by over 15% [1][3]. - **Policy Catalysts**: Continuous policy support for real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other measures are expected to catalyze the market. The valuation of real estate stocks is considered to have a sufficient margin of safety, with many leading companies trading at a price-to-book (PB) ratio significantly below 1 [1][3][11]. - **Market Dynamics**: The short-term data indicates positive changes in the real estate market, with a notable decrease in listings for older urban properties, as owners prefer renting or waiting for redevelopment rather than selling at lower prices [4][5]. Travel and Transportation Sector - **Positive Outlook**: The travel industry is expected to benefit from government policies promoting tourism, with signs of recovery in duty-free and hotel sectors. The airline industry anticipates strong growth in passenger traffic, with ticket prices expected to be higher than last year [1][8][9]. - **Airline Performance**: During the 2026 Spring Festival travel period, the airline industry is projected to see a 5-6% increase in passenger traffic, with improved ticket pricing compared to 2025. The industry is entering a positive development phase, with a supply growth rate of about 4% and demand growth of approximately 5.5% [9]. Home Appliance Sector - **Investment Opportunities**: The home appliance sector is currently undervalued, presenting good investment opportunities across various segments, including kitchen appliances and white goods. Leading companies are expected to maintain stable performance and high dividend payouts [1][10][11]. Coal Industry - **Market Conditions**: The coal industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a stable price recovery expected. Supply constraints are anticipated to reduce domestic coal supply by 70 million to 100 million tons in 2026, while demand remains resilient [2][19][20]. Chemical Industry - **Future Trends**: The chemical industry is gaining attention due to increased market liquidity and expectations of positive producer price index (PPI) trends. Supply-side constraints and improved demand from global markets are expected to drive price increases [17][18]. Consumer Healthcare Sector - **Recovery Signs**: The consumer healthcare sector is showing early signs of stabilization, particularly in ophthalmology and dental services. Key players in these segments are expected to benefit from a recovering market environment [16]. Food and Beverage Sector - **Market Performance**: The food and beverage sector has seen significant price increases, particularly for premium brands like Moutai. However, potential risks include the release of pent-up supply post-holiday, which could impact prices [21][22]. Construction and Building Materials - **Market Changes**: The construction materials sector is adapting to a shift in demand from new housing to renovations of existing properties. Recent data indicates a recovery in demand for glass and other materials, with expectations of price stabilization and potential increases [24][25]. Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: Overall, the cyclical industries, particularly real estate, travel, and home appliances, present promising investment opportunities. The focus should be on companies with strong fundamentals and favorable market conditions as the economy stabilizes [1][3][8][11].

Group 1 - The company primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of petrochemicals and chemical new materials, as well as polyester filament [6] - The performance change is attributed to the stable operation of the company's 16 million tons/year Shenghong refining and chemical integration project and other industrial sectors [6] - Since 2025, the central price of crude oil has been gradually declining, leading to an overall decrease in the price focus of petrochemical products [6] Group 2 - The company has implemented various measures such as optimizing crude oil procurement strategies, strengthening industrial sector linkage, adjusting product output structure, and diversifying high value-added chemical varieties in response to complex external environments [6] - The company's comprehensive profitability has improved compared to 2024 [6] - Historical net profit and non-recurring profit growth rates show significant fluctuations, with a notable increase in 2023 and projected growth in 2025 [8]

桐昆股份（601233）(601233.SH)发布2025年年度业绩预增公告，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股 东的净利润19.5亿元至21.5亿元，与上年同期相比增加74,809.64万元至94,809.64万元，增幅62.24%至 78.88%。 2025年国内政策精准发力，直接推动涤纶长丝行业产能投放收缩，行业供需格局优化带动单吨盈利水平 显著抬升。尽管上游PTA环节亏损规模较上年进一步扩大，对产业链利润形成一定侵蚀，但在此背景 下，公司主业依然凭借长丝业务的盈利增长实现了经营利润的显著改善;另一方面公司参股的浙石化依 托全球特大型炼化一体化装置，持续优化装置性能，不断挖潜增效，化工产品线不断延伸，品种日益丰 富，部分化工产品毛利有改善。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) expects a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of 1.95 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 748.1 million to 948.1 million yuan, with a growth rate of 62.24% to 78.88% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company anticipates a notable improvement in operating profit driven by the growth in its filament business, despite the expanded losses in the upstream PTA segment [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 indicates a strong recovery and growth trajectory for the company, reflecting effective management and operational strategies [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a contraction in capacity due to targeted domestic policies, leading to an optimized supply-demand balance and a significant increase in profit per ton [1] - The company’s stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical is contributing positively, as the facility continues to enhance performance and expand its chemical product line, resulting in improved margins for certain chemical products [1]

（记者 王瀚黎） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——水贝黄金平台"杰我睿"兑付危机调查：40倍杠杆对赌，金价越涨平台越 亏！老板自称"还在深圳"，投资者：兑付方案本金打两折，无法接受 每经AI快讯，桐昆股份1月29日晚间发布业绩预告，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 19.5亿元至21.5亿元，与上年同期相比增加约7.48亿元至约9.48亿元，增幅62.24%~78.88%。预计公司 2025年度归属于上市公司股东扣除对联营企业和合营企业的投资收益部分的净利润9.1亿元至11.1亿元， 与上年同期相比增加约4.19亿元至约6.19亿元，增幅为85.34%~126.08%。业绩变动主要原因是，主营业 务影响。2025年国内政策精准发力，直接推动涤纶长丝行业产能投放收缩，行业供需格局优化带动单吨 盈利水平显著抬升。尽管上游PTA环节亏损规模较上年进一步扩大，对产业链利润形成一定侵蚀，但在 此背景下，公司主业依然凭借长丝业务的盈利增长实现了经营利润的显著改善；另一方面公司参股的浙 石化依托全球特大型炼化一体化装置，持续优化装置性能，不断挖潜增效，化工产品线不断延伸，品种 日益丰富，部分化工产品毛利有 ...

每经AI快讯，1月29日，桐昆股份（601233）(601233.SH)公告称，桐昆股份预计2025年度归属于上市公 司股东的净利润为19.50亿元至21.50亿元，与上年同期相比增长62.24%至78.88%。主要因涤纶长丝行业 供需格局优化带动单吨盈利提升，叠加参股浙石化持续挖潜增效、部分化工产品毛利改善；同时政府补 助等非经常性损益金额较大。 ...