巴菲特指标(Buffett Indicator)
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“股神”巴菲特的衰退指标发出2026年首个重大警报!警惕市场突然猛烈回调
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-14 07:25
Group 1 - The Buffett Indicator has reached approximately 224%, marking a historical high, indicating that the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks exceeds twice the size of the U.S. economy [1][4] - This extreme deviation from historical norms often precedes significant market pressure and potential economic downturns [1][4] - The indicator has been rising since 2010, reflecting prolonged loose monetary policy, corporate valuation expansion, and strong investor preference for risk assets [4] Group 2 - The recent surge in the Buffett Indicator is particularly concerning as it coincides with signs of slowing growth in certain sectors of the real economy [5] - When market capitalization expands at a rate faster than GDP for an extended period, it often suggests that the implied expectations in stock prices may be overly optimistic [5]