1月8日午后，金融市场持续下挫，亚太市场回调。贵金属、有色金属市场全线跳水，白银、镍、铜大跌。 截至收盘，日经225指数收跌1.63%。 A股、港股明显回调。截至发稿，A股创业板指跌超1%，港股恒生指数、恒生科技指数分别跌1.8%、1.97%。 国内期货市场方面，多晶硅主力合约跌停。沪镍主力合约跌超7%，工业硅跌超4%，沪铝、沪铜、沪锡等金属纷纷重挫。 | 取消排序 | 最新 ◆ | 涨幅 ◆ | 日增仓 ⇒▶ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多昌硅2605 | 53610 | -9.00% | -9371 | | ps2605 | | 跌停 | | | 沪镇2602 | 134900 | -7.20% | 2679 | | ni2602 | | | | | 工业硅2605 | 8520 | -4.70% | 29281 | | si2605 | | | | | 国际铜2602 | 89140 | -3.73% | 98 | | bc2602 | | | | | 沪铝2602 | 23570 | -3.52% | -26927 | | al2602 | | | | | 沪铜2602 ...

央行近期释放明确宽松信号，降准降息预期升温，该政策导向对今日市场将产生何种影响？A股能否延 续近期涨势？以下结合消息面、市场盘面展开分析，并给出相应操作建议。首先梳理核心消息面，两大 利好因素形成共振支撑：其一，昨日央行召开2026年首次重点工作会议，明确强调持续实施适度宽松的 货币政策，加大逆周期与跨周期调节力度，灵活高效运用降准、降息等多元化货币政策工具。该表态传 递出清晰的政策宽松导向，市场普遍预期2026年有望落地降准降息举措，这将有效降低社会融资成本、 提升市场流动性，对全市场构成明确利好，进一步强化反弹预期。 其二，稀土及相关战略资源板块迎来针对性利好。昨日相关信息显示，我国近期有望出台政策，禁止两 用物项对日本的军用出口。稀土作为关键战略资源，在国防军工领域应用广泛，我国在全球稀土供应链 中占据主导地位，此次政策调整将直接利好稀土板块，对相关细分领域形成阶段性催化。 中长期来看，我们此前已多次强调，短期回调并不改变市场整体趋势，回调后仍将迎来布局机会。操作 层面，建议投资者对前期涨幅较大、动能衰减的品种，在市场出现明确走弱信号时进行短线高抛；待回 调到位后，可把握二次进场机会。当前处于短期关键节 ...

Now, with less than 30 minutes left in a truncated trading day, the S&P 500 is trading at 6937, well above the 6911 that would trigger a breakout. If the gain holds, investors, particularly trend followers and momentum traders, could decide to push their gains, giving the markets a boost through the end of the year. Despite recent gains, the S&P 500 hadn't confirmed a breakout, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton. Without one, market technicians like her had to assume that a correction was stil ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 发文评论称，Fundstrat 联合创始人 Tom Lee 长期以明显偏 多立场著称，其看多与看空观点比例约为 10:0；在市场可能出现回调时，他会短暂承认下行风险，将 比例调整至约 9:1。Ki Young Ju 认为，从相对变化来看，这种立场调整本身具有一定参考价值，也反映 出卖方研究角色所面临的现实约束。 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a sudden downturn after a brief rally, indicating weak momentum and a likely return to lower levels [2][4] - The real estate sector is facing significant challenges, with a long-standing issue now becoming widely recognized, leading to a continuous decline in bond values [4] - The lithium mining sector showed signs of weakness, as it failed to maintain upward momentum during the market rebound, suggesting internal problems [5] Group 2 - The liquor industry has seen prices drop below previous levels, indicating a lack of market confidence in current valuations [6] - There may be opportunities for investment at lower price points, but caution is advised due to market uncertainties [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.45% and the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices falling over 3%, is seen as a short-term fluctuation rather than a trend reversal, driven by both external and internal factors [3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The drop below 3900 points is attributed to external pressures such as a 2.15% decline in the Nasdaq and a global sell-off of risk assets, combined with internal issues like weak tech narratives and insufficient economic data [3]. - The current market adjustment is viewed as a release of previously accumulated risks, suggesting that a rapid decline is more likely to establish a market bottom compared to a gradual decline [3]. - Key indicators to monitor for market stabilization include whether trading volume exceeds 2 trillion yuan, the impact of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, and the support level around 3850 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Recommended strategies include focusing on undervalued assets in sectors like semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as textiles and commercial vehicles that are experiencing supply-demand improvements [3]. - Defensive investments in high-dividend sectors are advised to provide a safety net for portfolios during market volatility [3]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain cash reserves and adopt a patient approach to capitalize on market fluctuations for potential excess returns [3].

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-October, there has been a significant rise in risk aversion, leading to a cross-asset sell-off in global markets, affecting nearly all asset classes, including technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold. The S&P 500 index has fallen below the critical support level of 6725 points, and Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000, reversing a year-to-date gain of over 30% into negative territory. Despite this, Deutsche Bank's report indicates that the current macroeconomic and financial fundamentals remain robust, not meeting the conditions for a large-scale, sustained bear market [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary driver of recent market turmoil is the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift, with Chairman Powell questioning the likelihood of a rate cut in December, leading to a drop in the market's expectations for a rate cut to 42% [1][2]. - Historical patterns show that previous large-scale sell-offs were often triggered by the Fed adopting a more aggressive stance and moving towards rate hikes [2][4]. - The current sell-off model shares similarities with historical events but is less severe. The Fed's hawkish tone is largely due to persistently high inflation and the delayed effects of tariff policies [4]. Group 2: Market Corrections - The report notes that the market experienced an "unrelenting and unusual" rise before the sell-off, with the S&P 500 index showing a rolling gain of 23% over the six months ending in October, marking the strongest performance since the post-COVID recovery [6]. - Unlike the post-pandemic surge driven by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, the current rebound is fueled by waning fears of a recession, making the market's cyclical correction unsurprising given the high valuation levels [8]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - Ongoing fiscal deficits in developed economies are exerting pressure on various asset classes, including bonds. For instance, UK government bonds faced significant pressure ahead of the budget announcement, and Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a new high since 2008 [9]. - This fiscal concern is not limited to the bond market but also affects equities, as evidenced by the poor performance of the French CAC 40 index, one of the worst-performing major European indices this year [9]. Group 4: Fundamental Resilience - Despite the aforementioned headwinds, Deutsche Bank emphasizes that the market's fundamental backdrop remains "robust." The recent sell-off has only caused the S&P 500 index to retreat about 3% from its historical peak [10]. - Key positive factors include the Fed's cumulative rate cuts of 150 basis points since September 2024, the fastest pace of cuts in a non-recession period since the 1980s, and the current market focus on the pace of future rate cuts rather than the need for rate hikes, which is a positive signal [12]. - Additionally, recent easing of trade tensions has further alleviated market anxiety, and overall financial conditions remain loose, with market pressure indicators like the VIX index and high-yield credit spreads still below their October peaks [12].

Group 1 - Peter Thiel's fund has significantly adjusted its holdings by reducing Tesla shares by 76% and completely selling its Nvidia stake, while buying into Apple and Microsoft stocks [1][4] - The fund sold 207,613 shares of Tesla, decreasing its holdings from 272,600 shares to 65,000 shares, and cleared over 537,000 shares of Nvidia [4] - Thiel's relationship with Tesla CEO Elon Musk is noted, as the reduction in holdings coincides with Musk urging shareholders to "hold on to their stocks" [4] Group 2 - The asset adjustment by Thiel's fund may stem from overall market concerns rather than a specific focus on Tesla, highlighting the high risk associated with Tesla, which currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 275 [4] - There is a notable decline in fourth-quarter profit expectations for Tesla, alongside significant stock price volatility [4] - The shift from high-growth momentum stocks to traditional tech stocks reflects institutional caution regarding market corrections [4]

Core Insights - Emerging markets are experiencing significant concerns among asset managers due to overcrowded trades, particularly in Brazilian real and AI-related stocks, leading to warnings of an inevitable pullback [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has seen a nearly 30% increase this year, marking the longest consecutive monthly rise in over two decades, with potential for the best annual performance since 2017 [2][5] - Historical lessons indicate that after significant gains, such as in 2017, emerging markets can face sharp declines due to factors like hawkish Federal Reserve policies and trade conflicts [5] Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen approximately 30% year-to-date, with expectations for the best annual performance since 2017 [2] - A tracking indicator for emerging market local currency bonds is on track for its best returns in six years, with 61% of surveyed investors net overweighting these bonds [5] Investor Sentiment - Investors are showing excessive optimism towards emerging markets, with warnings from analysts that a market correction is likely due to high valuations not reflecting underlying risks [1][5] - A significant portion of investors (61%) are now net overweighting emerging market local currency bonds, a stark contrast to a negative sentiment just a few months prior [5] Regional Insights - Asian technology stocks have faced severe sell-offs, with the Korean Kospi index experiencing a drop of over 6% in a single trading day, highlighting the risks associated with extreme valuations [6][7] - The Brazilian real has seen a return of approximately 30% this year, but concerns about overcrowded positions and fiscal worries are emerging [9][10] Currency and Bond Markets - Currency arbitrage trades, particularly in the Brazilian real, are under pressure as market sentiment shifts towards bearish positions [9] - The Hungarian forint has delivered a 27% return in dollar arbitrage trades, but potential political changes could impact future performance [10] Liquidity Concerns - Frontier markets have benefited from capital outflows from U.S. assets, but warnings are being issued regarding potential liquidity risks in markets like Egypt and Ghana during periods of heightened volatility [10]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a sense of uncertainty regarding valuations, with mega-cap stocks moving significantly (around 10%) following earnings reports, indicating potential frothiness in the market [2] - There are concerns about the ability to sustain growth, particularly regarding the timely implementation of electricity and the competitive landscape with China in technology advancements [2][3] - A shift from faith to skepticism has been observed in market sentiment, raising questions about the sustainability of risk tolerance, although seasonal factors may provide some support [4] Group 2 - There is a potential for a significant market pullback of 5 to 10%, as recent rallies may have been influenced by various economic news, including long-term loans and dividend checks [5] - The government is perceived to be increasing liquidity in the market, which could impact consumer behavior leading up to the midterm elections [6]