想知道下周能不能企稳？盯紧三个关键信号：第一，成交额能不能重回2万亿元以上；第二，12月中央经济工作会议临近，政策催化要不要等；第三，沪指 3850点附近的支撑位能不能扛住。这三点只要中了两点，市场大概率就能稳住！ 至于该怎么操作，帮主给你三个实在策略：一是拥抱"错杀真资产"，像半导体、创新药这些估值消化充分的科技成长股，还有纺织制造、商用车这种供需改 善的品种，值得重点看；二是握紧"防御盾牌"，红利板块这种高股息资产，能给你的持仓加层安全垫；三是别把现金全砸进去，保持耐心，震荡市里学会抓 波段，才能赚超额收益。 帮主20年财经经验总结：市场从不会因一根大阴线转向，也不会因恐惧而见顶。现在最该做的，不是跟风杀跌，而是找出那些"能活下来还能活得更好"的企 业。我是帮主郑重，专注中长线不追风，只跟大家聊实实在在的机会。 你手里的票是被错杀的优质股，还是该及时止损的题材股？评论区打出来，帮主帮你捋捋后续思路！ 老铁们，周五的收盘钟声一响，是不是瞬间觉得屏幕都在发凉？沪指直接暴跌2.45%失守3900点，深成指、创业板指更狠，跌超3%，全市场超5000只个股飘 绿！这波回调，你慌了吗？是赶紧割肉跑路，还是盯着屏幕想抄 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-October, there has been a significant rise in risk aversion, leading to a cross-asset sell-off in global markets, affecting nearly all asset classes, including technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold. The S&P 500 index has fallen below the critical support level of 6725 points, and Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000, reversing a year-to-date gain of over 30% into negative territory. Despite this, Deutsche Bank's report indicates that the current macroeconomic and financial fundamentals remain robust, not meeting the conditions for a large-scale, sustained bear market [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary driver of recent market turmoil is the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift, with Chairman Powell questioning the likelihood of a rate cut in December, leading to a drop in the market's expectations for a rate cut to 42% [1][2]. - Historical patterns show that previous large-scale sell-offs were often triggered by the Fed adopting a more aggressive stance and moving towards rate hikes [2][4]. - The current sell-off model shares similarities with historical events but is less severe. The Fed's hawkish tone is largely due to persistently high inflation and the delayed effects of tariff policies [4]. Group 2: Market Corrections - The report notes that the market experienced an "unrelenting and unusual" rise before the sell-off, with the S&P 500 index showing a rolling gain of 23% over the six months ending in October, marking the strongest performance since the post-COVID recovery [6]. - Unlike the post-pandemic surge driven by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, the current rebound is fueled by waning fears of a recession, making the market's cyclical correction unsurprising given the high valuation levels [8]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - Ongoing fiscal deficits in developed economies are exerting pressure on various asset classes, including bonds. For instance, UK government bonds faced significant pressure ahead of the budget announcement, and Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a new high since 2008 [9]. - This fiscal concern is not limited to the bond market but also affects equities, as evidenced by the poor performance of the French CAC 40 index, one of the worst-performing major European indices this year [9]. Group 4: Fundamental Resilience - Despite the aforementioned headwinds, Deutsche Bank emphasizes that the market's fundamental backdrop remains "robust." The recent sell-off has only caused the S&P 500 index to retreat about 3% from its historical peak [10]. - Key positive factors include the Fed's cumulative rate cuts of 150 basis points since September 2024, the fastest pace of cuts in a non-recession period since the 1980s, and the current market focus on the pace of future rate cuts rather than the need for rate hikes, which is a positive signal [12]. - Additionally, recent easing of trade tensions has further alleviated market anxiety, and overall financial conditions remain loose, with market pressure indicators like the VIX index and high-yield credit spreads still below their October peaks [12].

来源：环球网 文件显示，该基金本季度出售207,613股特斯拉股票，持股从27.26万股降至6.5万股；同时清仓超53.7万 股英伟达股份及全部维斯塔能源持仓，新纳入苹果、微软等传统科技股。 【环球网科技综合报道】11月18日消息，据外媒electrek报道，亿万富翁彼得・蒂尔旗下蒂尔宏观基金 已大幅调整持仓：减持特斯拉76%股份，清仓此前最大持仓英伟达，转而买入苹果和微软股票，引发市 场关注。 值得注意的是，蒂尔与特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克是创业伙伴且关系密切。而此次减持正值马斯克呼吁股 东"握紧股票"、警告空头之际。值得一提的是，马斯克近期还针对比尔・盖茨的特斯拉空头头寸发出平 仓警告，称如果盖茨还没有完全平掉他所持有的近八年的特斯拉空头头寸的话，最好应加快行动。 分析认为，蒂尔的资产调整或源于整体市场担忧，而非单纯针对特斯拉，但也凸显特斯拉的高风险：目 前其市盈率达275倍，第四季度盈利预期下滑，股价波动性显著。此次基金从高增长动量股转向传统科 技股，也反映出机构对市场回调的谨慎态度。（旺旺） ...

今年以来一些最受欢迎的新兴市场交易，例如做多巴西雷亚尔和押注人工智能相关股票，正因过度拥挤而引发资管经理的担忧，他们警告称一场 回调可能将不可避免。 富国证券指出，作为2025年表现最佳的套利交易之一，拉丁美洲货币的估值已脱离基本面。富达国际则对流动性较差的非洲市场表示担忧，认为 一旦全球波动性飙升，这些市场将面临风险。与此同时，在11月初亚洲科技股遭遇自4月以来最严重的抛售后，Lazard Asset Management正保持高 度警惕。 "投资者对新兴市场过于自满，"富国银行驻纽约的新兴市场经济学家兼外汇策略师Brendan McKenna认为，虽然短期内市场可能继续表现良好，但 回调终将到来。他表示： "几乎所有外汇估值都已过高，并未反映市场潜藏的诸多风险。" 美联储降息、美元走软以及人工智能热潮的共同作用，推动了新兴市场今年的惊人涨幅，但也导致许多领域出现过热迹象。正是当初推动反弹的 资金流，如今构成了突然回撤的风险，并可能波及全球市场情绪，收紧跨资产类别的流动性。 涨势过热的明确信号 "随着年终临近，一些投资者可能会寻求对2025年成功的交易进行获利了结，这可能导致外汇市场波动性上升。" 然而，历 ...

Peter Tchir of Academy writing markets are rejoicing the end of the government shutdown. But none of the other issues that have been bothering the market itself just yet. Peter joins us now for more.Peter. Good morning. Good to see it. Good morning.Let's talk about those other issues. What are they. I think you just talked about a lot of them.What is the valuation. Correct. Fair or not.Right. It's it feels a bit frothy. You're now seeing your mega caps move 10% on the back of earnings reports, which seems l ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has shown significant growth, gaining 19.9% over the past 52 weeks and 40.4% since the market crash in early April, despite a recent 1% dip in pre-market trading [2][3]. Bear Case - The market is perceived to be overdue for a retreat, with the Shiller P/E ratio reaching 41.0 in October, indicating historically high valuations similar to those before the dot-com bubble [5][8]. - Various factors such as midterm elections, ongoing inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and a potential government shutdown contribute to market uncertainty [5][6]. Bull Case - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is considered a strong long-term investment, historically providing approximately 10% annual returns, which outpace inflation [7][8]. - Even investors who purchased VOO at unfavorable times, such as before the 2022 inflation crisis, have seen returns of 42% (50% with reinvested dividends) [8].

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong corporate earnings, current valuation levels are concerning, particularly for technology stocks, with expectations of a potential market correction of 10% to 20% in the next 12 to 24 months, viewed as a healthy adjustment rather than a crisis [1][3][7] Valuation Concerns - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley executives express worries about high valuation levels in the U.S. stock market, indicating that most investors perceive valuations to be between reasonable and full, with few considering stocks to be cheap [3][6] - Solomon from Goldman Sachs notes that technology stock valuations are particularly full, although this does not apply to the entire market [5][6] Market Correction as a Healthy Adjustment - Wall Street executives unanimously agree that market corrections should be seen as normal and healthy developments rather than signals of a crisis, with Solomon emphasizing that 10% to 15% corrections often occur even in positive market cycles [7][9] - Pick from Morgan Stanley encourages investors to welcome the possibility of cyclical corrections, stating that such adjustments are not driven by macroeconomic cliff effects [9] Positive Outlook for Asian Markets - Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley maintain an optimistic outlook for Asian markets, particularly China, Japan, and India, citing unique growth narratives in these regions [4][10] - Goldman Sachs expects continued interest in China from global capital allocators due to recent positive developments, while Morgan Stanley highlights investment opportunities in China's AI, electric vehicles, and biotechnology sectors, as well as Japan's corporate governance reforms and India's infrastructure development [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street executives warn that despite strong corporate earnings, current valuation levels are concerning, with a potential market correction of over 10% expected in the next 12 to 24 months [1][2]. Valuation Concerns - Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon express worries about the current valuation levels of U.S. stocks, predicting a possible 10% to 20% correction in the near future [2]. - Solomon notes that while technology stock valuations are fully priced, this does not apply to the entire market [5]. - Capital Group's Mike Gitlin highlights that most investors view market valuations as reasonable to full, with few considering stocks to be cheap [7]. - Pick mentions the risks of policy errors and geopolitical uncertainties in the U.S. market [6]. Market Correction as a Healthy Adjustment - Wall Street executives agree that market corrections should be seen as a normal and healthy development rather than a crisis signal [8]. - Solomon emphasizes that 10% to 15% corrections are common even in positive market cycles and do not alter fundamental capital allocation judgments [9][10]. - Pick encourages investors to welcome the possibility of cyclical corrections, describing them as healthy developments [11][12]. Positive Outlook for Asian Markets - Despite concerns over U.S. stock valuations, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley maintain an optimistic outlook for Asian markets [3][15]. - Goldman Sachs expects continued interest in China from global capital allocators due to recent positive developments, highlighting China as a major global economy [16]. - Morgan Stanley expresses bullish sentiments towards China, Japan, and India, identifying unique growth narratives in these markets [17]. Pick specifically points out investment opportunities in China's AI, electric vehicles, and biotechnology sectors, as well as Japan's corporate governance reforms and India's infrastructure development [17].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street executives warn that despite strong corporate earnings, current valuation levels are concerning, with potential for a market correction of over 10% in the next 12 to 24 months [1] Valuation Concerns - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted that "tech stock valuations are fully priced," but this does not apply to the entire market [2] - Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick mentioned that while the market has progressed significantly, there are risks related to "policy errors" and geopolitical uncertainties in the U.S. [2] - Capital Group's Mike Gitlin stated that most investors view market valuations as between reasonable and full, with few considering stocks to be cheap [2] Market Correction as a Healthy Adjustment - Wall Street executives agree that market corrections should be seen as normal and healthy developments rather than crisis signals [3] - Solomon emphasized that 10% to 15% corrections often occur even in positive market cycles and do not alter fundamental capital allocation judgments [3][4] - Pick stated that investors should welcome the possibility of cyclical corrections, describing them as healthy developments rather than signs of crisis [5] Positive Outlook for Asian Markets - Despite concerns over U.S. stock valuations, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley maintain an optimistic outlook for Asian markets [6] - Goldman Sachs expects continued interest in China from global capital allocators due to recent positive developments, including trade progress [6] - Morgan Stanley holds a bullish view on markets in China, Japan, and India, highlighting unique growth narratives in these regions [7] - Pick specifically pointed out investment opportunities in China's AI, electric vehicles, and biotechnology sectors, as well as Japan's corporate governance reforms and India's infrastructure development [7]

Core Viewpoint - The new stock market is very active this year, reflecting investors' willingness to take risks and an overall optimistic investment environment, although a potential market correction of 10% to 15% may occur due to high asset prices rather than a macroeconomic downturn [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current investment environment is optimistic, with active participation in the new stock market [1] - A potential market correction of 10% to 15% is anticipated, driven by high asset prices rather than a significant economic decline [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Economic Factors - Easing financial regulations is beneficial for corporate profit growth, but both equity and debt markets are considered expensive [1] - Precious metals and cryptocurrency markets exhibit speculative behavior, posing short-term valuation challenges [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite risks from policy missteps and geopolitical uncertainties, systemic risks may have decreased compared to earlier in the year [1] - The focus for the upcoming year will shift back to fundamentals, particularly corporate earnings, as the market outlook evolves [1] Group 4: Sector Performance - The market is expected to show differentiation, with companies that can generate good returns without significant investment in artificial intelligence likely to perform well [1]