Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility in 2025, reaching a peak of $93,000 at the beginning of the year, dropping to $74,500 in April, and rebounding to a new high of $126,200 in October before giving back most of its gains [1] - Analysts are divided on Bitcoin's long-term outlook, with some believing it has peaked and the risk of a bear market is rising, while others see limited downside and potential for new highs in 2026 [1] - The traditional "four-year cycle" may be weakening, with factors such as friendly regulation, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, and institutional demand altering previous price patterns [1] Group 2 - On a monthly basis, Bitcoin maintains an upward structure, with previous corrections finding support near the 20-month exponential moving average (approximately $88,000), which is a critical support level [1] - If Bitcoin falls below this moving average and breaches the April low of $74,500, the upward structure will be compromised, potentially leading to a price retreat towards the $50,000 region [1] - Conversely, if Bitcoin rebounds from the short-term moving average and reclaims the psychological level of $100,000, bullish momentum could challenge the $126,200 high again, with potential targets of $141,200 to $178,600 [1] Group 3 - The weekly outlook appears bearish, with the moving averages potentially forming a "death cross" for the first time since early 2022 [2] - Historical patterns suggest that if a rebound is hindered near the moving averages, Bitcoin may repeatedly test the $74,500 support level, increasing the risk of a breakdown and possibly leading to a prolonged consolidation phase [2] - The volatility of Bitcoin is impacting capital markets, with Strategy (MSTR.US), led by Saylor, expected to report billions in unrealized losses due to a 24% decline in Bitcoin prices in Q4, contrasting sharply with a $2.8 billion profit in the previous quarter [2] Group 4 - Saylor's personal wealth significantly declined in 2025, dropping approximately 40% to around $3.8 billion, while Strategy's enterprise value is nearing its Bitcoin holdings value, indicating a decrease in market premium for the "coin-based" strategy [3] - As the new year begins, risk assets show short-term recovery, with Strategy's stock price rising 5.2% to about $160 and Bitcoin surpassing $90,000 [3] - Analysts caution that due to weak technicals, accounting rules amplifying volatility, and uncertainty regarding the cycle's effectiveness, Bitcoin and related stocks may continue to exhibit high volatility, with $74,500 and $100,000 being key levels for market dynamics [3]

又到周末了，随便聊点轻松的吧。 今天看到黄仁勋利用政策成功避税80亿美元，我好奇他是怎么做到的，就去搜了一下信息。原来是在多 年前把英伟达的股票投入一些特设的信托，这些信托在设计的时候就享受税收优惠政策，假如信托里的 股票价格上涨，那么上涨的部分只需要交很少的税。 众所周知英伟达是最近几年地球上最能涨的股票，老黄当时的这一步棋走对了，因此光明正大的避税几 十亿美元。美国是一个征税特别严格的国家，但那里的富人依然会用各种奇招妙法合法避税。 前几天有个事情我没写，是巴菲特规划了他去世后的遗产方案，其中0.5%直接给三个子女，每人能分 到2.5亿美元。剩下的99.5%将会用来成立慈善基金，并指定三个子女共同管理。 政府当然很清楚这个情况，但从综合博弈的角度考虑没有进行干涉。因为你遗产税逼的太狠会把富人吓 跑，最后导致资本外流得不偿失，还不如像现在这样，每个富豪去世都留下一个子女管理的慈善基金， 每年5%反哺社会细水长流，无论是有钱人还是公众都可以接受这个方案。 …… 很多读者一听慈善基金就知道是美国富豪的老套路，确实是这样，美国遗产税税率40%，巴菲特不可能 直接让子女继承遗产，否则这对伯克希尔公司和美国股市都是一 ...