Core Viewpoint - Bybit's 2026 crypto market outlook suggests that the traditional "four-year cycle" may no longer be a suitable framework for analyzing spot prices in 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The report highlights new sources of demand, a favorable macro environment, and ongoing regulatory support as key factors contributing to a relatively positive outlook for 2026 [1] - The macro market is currently pricing in the possibility of further easing by the Federal Reserve, which may lead to Bitcoin (BTC) reinforcing its positive correlation with U.S. equities [1] Group 2: Value Drivers - Real World Assets (RWA) and tokenization activities are identified as significant value drivers for 2026 [1] - The options market currently assigns a 10.3% probability for BTC to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, which the report considers to be low [1]

Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced significant volatility in 2025, reaching a peak of $93,000 at the beginning of the year, dropping to $74,500 in April, and rebounding to a new high of $126,200 in October before giving back most of its gains [1] - Analysts are divided on Bitcoin's long-term outlook, with some believing it has peaked and the risk of a bear market is rising, while others see limited downside and potential for new highs in 2026 [1] - The traditional "four-year cycle" may be weakening, with factors such as friendly regulation, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, and institutional demand altering previous price patterns [1] Group 2 - On a monthly basis, Bitcoin maintains an upward structure, with previous corrections finding support near the 20-month exponential moving average (approximately $88,000), which is a critical support level [1] - If Bitcoin falls below this moving average and breaches the April low of $74,500, the upward structure will be compromised, potentially leading to a price retreat towards the $50,000 region [1] - Conversely, if Bitcoin rebounds from the short-term moving average and reclaims the psychological level of $100,000, bullish momentum could challenge the $126,200 high again, with potential targets of $141,200 to $178,600 [1] Group 3 - The weekly outlook appears bearish, with the moving averages potentially forming a "death cross" for the first time since early 2022 [2] - Historical patterns suggest that if a rebound is hindered near the moving averages, Bitcoin may repeatedly test the $74,500 support level, increasing the risk of a breakdown and possibly leading to a prolonged consolidation phase [2] - The volatility of Bitcoin is impacting capital markets, with Strategy (MSTR.US), led by Saylor, expected to report billions in unrealized losses due to a 24% decline in Bitcoin prices in Q4, contrasting sharply with a $2.8 billion profit in the previous quarter [2] Group 4 - Saylor's personal wealth significantly declined in 2025, dropping approximately 40% to around $3.8 billion, while Strategy's enterprise value is nearing its Bitcoin holdings value, indicating a decrease in market premium for the "coin-based" strategy [3] - As the new year begins, risk assets show short-term recovery, with Strategy's stock price rising 5.2% to about $160 and Bitcoin surpassing $90,000 [3] - Analysts caution that due to weak technicals, accounting rules amplifying volatility, and uncertainty regarding the cycle's effectiveness, Bitcoin and related stocks may continue to exhibit high volatility, with $74,500 and $100,000 being key levels for market dynamics [3]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's realized market capitalization remains stable at approximately $1.125 trillion despite a nearly 40% price pullback, indicating that real capital has not experienced systemic outflow [1][3] - The divergence between price correction and stable funding suggests that the market is undergoing structural consolidation rather than a trend reversal [1][3] On-Chain Metrics - Realized market capitalization, which reflects the actual capital in the market by calculating the last transfer price of each Bitcoin, is more indicative of long-term investor behavior compared to traditional market cap metrics [4] - During a recent 36% price decline, the realized market cap continued to rise, showing a stable holding structure among investors, contrasting sharply with previous bear markets where significant capital shrinkage occurred [4] Market Sentiment and Macro Environment - Current market conditions do not exhibit the panic selling seen in previous downturns, suggesting that long-term investors maintain confidence despite price corrections [2][4] - Macro factors are improving, with global economic growth showing resilience, a shift towards a more accommodative monetary environment, and gradually improving liquidity conditions, which historically support scarce assets like Bitcoin [2][4] Market Cycle Analysis - The traditional "four-year cycle" framework is being questioned as market maturity, institutional participation, and macro variables increasingly influence Bitcoin's price dynamics [5] - If macro liquidity continues to improve, future price movements may exhibit more elastic structural increases rather than strictly adhering to historical timing patterns [5] Future Outlook - Bitcoin is currently viewed as being in a consolidation phase within a mid-to-long-term trend rather than at a cyclical peak, with the potential for renewed upward momentum as long as the realized market cap remains high and the holding structure stable [3][5]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has fallen below $87,000 for the first time since April, with a single-day drop exceeding 4%, marking a decline that has persisted for over a month due to whale sell-offs and a lack of buying interest [1][3] - The market experienced a significant downturn after a record rise in October, leading to short-term traders continuously liquidating positions, which has resulted in increased selling pressure [3] - Two key factors driving the current decline are identified: the self-fulfilling nature of the "four-year cycle," where whales have sold over $20 billion in assets since September, and the ongoing deleveraging in the market, which has diminished the buying momentum that previously supported Bitcoin's rise [3] Group 2 - The volatility of cryptocurrencies is highlighted, advising against impulsive trading based on short-term emotions; investors are encouraged to reassess their long-term value outlook before making decisions [4] - It is recommended that potential investors wait for reduced volatility and stable support levels before entering the market, as the deleveraging process is not yet complete [4] - Emphasis is placed on managing position sizes due to the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency investments, advocating for a steady approach rather than speculative betting [4]