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中邮黄付生:市场三阶段演进,“强产业、起消费”引领2026
Group 1 - The domestic market is undergoing three phases of evolution: the decline in bond market yields is driving the revaluation of dividend stocks; the "DeepSeek" moment is igniting the growth of technology stocks; and by 2026, there will be a recovery in manufacturing profits [1][2] - The first phase of value revaluation in the A-share market occurs from 2023 to 2024, characterized by a bull market in dividend stocks due to rapidly declining bond yields [2] - From the "9.24" event until 2025, the market will enter a growth stock boom, representing a repricing of China's technology industry [2] Group 2 - In 2026, the market will extend into a phase of recovery in manufacturing profits, driven by "anti-involution" policies that will restore industrial product prices and a "price for volume" inventory reduction phase for consumer goods [2] - The valuation of the "Seven Sisters" in the US stock market is approximately 35-40 times, which, while higher than the historical average, is significantly lower than the 80 times valuation seen during the 2000 internet bubble [2] - The ability to quickly build a self-controlled modern industrial system will directly impact the recovery of PPI and corporate profits, with 2026 being a critical year for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]