不少机构也表达了对A股后续行情的积极预期。中金公司研究部国内策略首席分析师李求索预计，A股震荡上行行情仍有 望延续。东方财富证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈果认为，2026年中国资产重估逻辑将继续演绎，内外资对权益市场的增配 有望共振，国内居民权益类资产配置仍有广阔提升空间，A股新高可期。 ■李文 近日，A股市场出现震荡，大量资金选择借道股票型ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）逆势入场、积极加仓。据Wind资讯数 据统计，11月14日至21日，全市场ETF净流入规模突破1000亿元。笔者认为，资金借道ETF逆势加仓释放了三个积极信号。 第一，机构对A股市场信心坚定，耐心资本提供稳定支撑。 在市场回调的过程中，ETF的巨额净流入为市场提供了宝贵的流动性支撑，代表了耐心资本对市场中长期价值的看好。短 期下跌并未动摇市场信心根基，反而被耐心资本视为是以更低价格、更多元渠道、更便捷方式买入优质资产的战略机遇。 "聪明钱"将当前的市场调整视为布局未来产业主线的黄金窗口。Wind资讯数据显示，11月14日至21日，南方创业板人工智 能ETF净流入约22.95亿元；华夏上证科创板人工智能ETF净流入约6.09亿元。此次ETF资金 ...

知名 国际 投资机构毕盛资产的创始人、执行主席兼首席策略官王国辉在论坛上发表了题为《世界正重估中国——从不可投资到不可不投》 的主题演讲。 王国辉表示 ，全球资本对中国市场的认知正经历深刻转变，从过去的"犹豫观望"逐步转向"主动布局"。 王国辉 认为 ，从宏观基本面来看，中国拥有最勤劳高效的劳动群体、十四亿不懈奋斗的人民以及充满智慧、创造力的企业家。在此基础之 上，中国实现了高于欧美国家的GDP增速，年度贸易顺差持续突破1万亿美元，并有望在今年再创历史新高。"科技领域方面，中国在5G、 无人机、电动汽车、北斗导航等多个关键领域已处于全球领先地位。"王国辉强调，上述因素共同构成了中国独特且难以复制的产业与创新 生态系统，正持续吸引海外资本重新审视并积极配置中国资产。 【导读】"平安30"保有规模突破百亿元，知名国际投资大咖看多中国 中国基金报记者 江右 11月23日下午，平安证券在深圳成功举办"高净值人群投资论坛暨平安30解决方案升级发布会"。 会上，平安证券披露了三年前推出的平 安30的运作重要数据：保有规模突破百亿元、服务5482位客户、创造8.6亿元绝对收益。 会上，六位投资大咖发声，围绕中国资本市场的投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock market correction has raised concerns, with significant declines in major indices, but there is a notable influx of capital into ETFs as investors seek to capitalize on lower prices [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a substantial drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.45% to 3834.89 points, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices declining by 3.41% and 4.02% respectively [1]. - Over the past week, the Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly decline of 3.9%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices dropped by 5.03% and 5.96% respectively [2]. Capital Inflow into ETFs - Despite the market downturn, over 700 billion yuan flowed into stock ETFs in the past week, indicating a strong buying interest [3]. - On November 21, the day of the market drop, more than 400 billion yuan was invested in ETFs, with significant inflows into various major ETFs [3]. External Factors Impacting the Market - Multiple fund companies attribute the market correction to external factors, particularly the declining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising concerns over an AI bubble, which have transmitted pessimism from overseas markets to China [5][6]. - The recent U.S. employment data showed a paradox, with job growth exceeding expectations but the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [7]. Industry Analysis - Certain sectors, such as batteries, banks, communications, and coal, have shown slight net outflows in their respective ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4]. - The technology sector, particularly related to AI, has faced significant pressure, with concerns over valuation and market sentiment affecting stock performance [6][7]. Future Outlook - Fund companies maintain a positive long-term outlook for Chinese assets, suggesting a "slow bull" market trend despite short-term volatility [8]. - The balance between AI capital investment and output is crucial, with expectations that ongoing technological advancements will support long-term growth [8][9]. - The fundamental factors, including real estate stabilization and the impact of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support a sustained upward trend in the A-share market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities highlights increased market volatility and suggests focusing on oversold sectors as potential investment opportunities due to recent emotional trading and market adjustments [1][2]. Market Conditions - The recent volatility in the domestic stock market is attributed to the "transitional" narrative in technology and cyclical sectors, alongside tightening liquidity conditions [2]. - Major global tech stocks have seen significant declines, with Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta dropping between 9.1% and 13.3% since late October [2]. - The market is currently in a phase lacking catalysts and clear trading narratives, with key economic indicators showing a slowdown [2]. Liquidity Environment - Recent liquidity conditions have tightened, with A-share daily trading volume falling below 2 trillion yuan, and turnover rates decreasing [3]. - Southbound capital inflows have slowed, with average daily net inflows dropping from 8.41 billion HKD in September to approximately 5.75 billion HKD [3]. - The potential for increased supply pressure is noted, with a significant rise in the amount of shares set to be unlocked in December [3]. Market Adjustments and Opportunities - The current market adjustment is seen as a potential buying opportunity, as the fundamentals remain stable despite recent volatility [5]. - The report suggests that both A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies may be nearing a profit confirmation point, providing a fundamental support for investments [5]. - The sentiment indicator for Hong Kong stocks is currently in a pessimistic range, indicating a balanced risk profile and potential buy signals as it approaches lower thresholds [7]. Sector Focus for Investment - The report recommends focusing on sectors that have underperformed this year, such as consumer services, construction, textiles, and home appliances [9]. - It also highlights sectors that have seen limited gains but significant recent declines, such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and light manufacturing, as having a higher chance of being oversold [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of safety margins in investment decisions, suggesting a focus on sectors with improving fundamentals and high dividend yields, including coal, chemicals, and steel [8][9].

2018年至2019年，全球关税风暴下，人民币汇率（如非特指，本文均指人民币兑美元双边汇率）总体承 压。 然而，2025年，面对极限关税施压，人民币不跌反涨，这主要反映了美元指数走弱、国内经济回升和关 税冲突缓解的综合影响。预计前述积极因素对2026年人民币将继续形成支撑，但鉴于内外部不确定不稳 定因素较多，各方需进一步适应汇率双向波动的新常态。 人民币逆势走强 近年来，在世纪疫情冲击、百年变局演进的背景下，受中美经济周期和货币政策分化影响，中美利率倒 挂，人民币汇率涨少跌多、总体承压，由6.30最低跌破7.30。进入2025年以来，随着特朗普重返白宫， 再度掀起全球关税风暴，多边贸易体系受阻，全球产业链供应链重塑，中国首当其冲。 内外部因素共振 人民币之所以避免了上次中美经贸摩擦期间震荡走弱的情形，除2024年四季度（美国大选前后）外汇市 场已提前定价了特朗普冲击，终结了三季度的汇率反弹行情外，还反映了2025年以来内外部积极因素共 振的影响。 一是特朗普交易大幅回撤。上次中美贸易摩擦期间，美国经济表现强劲、美联储加息预期和避险情绪驱 动美元指数从2018年4月中旬的89.4升至2019年9月末的99.4， ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 strategy report by Dongfang Caifu Securities indicates a continued revaluation logic for Chinese assets, with expectations of increased allocation to equity markets by both domestic and foreign investors, suggesting significant room for growth in domestic residents' equity asset allocation and the potential for new highs in A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience a "confidence revaluation bull" in 2025, with a market revaluation of technology G2 and the international context of the Chinese stock market, leading to valuation recovery without overheating [1] - A-share earnings are projected to end the downward cycle from 2022 to 2024, with earnings no longer falling below market expectations and signs of bottoming out and recovery becoming evident [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report highlights three areas of expected divergence: corporate earnings are likely to exceed expectations, advancements in AI in China are anticipated to surpass expectations, and the expansion of "pragmatic cooperation" between China and the U.S. is expected to exceed expectations [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market trend in 2026, with expectations of sustained inflow of incremental micro-capital [1] Group 3: Risk Considerations - Attention is drawn to new volatility risk points, particularly regarding U.S. re-inflation and the commercialization race of AI applications [1] - The consensus expectation is for a continuation of the bull market in 2026, but it is emphasized that managing volatility and understanding structural changes will be crucial for achieving excess returns [1]

人民财讯11月18日电，11月18日，在东方财富证券2026年度策略会上，东方财富证券研究所副所长、首 席策略官陈果发表2026年度策略报告，他提出2026年中国资产重估逻辑将继续演绎，内外资对权益市场 的增配有望共振，国内居民权益类资产配置仍有广阔提升空间，A股新高可期。盈利端，AI产业链景气 度扩散、产能周期筑底及PPI同比回暖有望带动盈利周期延续转暖，"新动能"占比将进一步提升；同时 随着本轮广义去库持续、下半年地产库销比回归历史均值，传统经济链条预期也将迎来逐步改善。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：证券时报 ...

11月18日至19日，东方财富证券2026年度策略会于上海陆家嘴召开。东方财富证券研究所副所长、首席 策略官陈果提出，2026年中国资产重估逻辑将继续演绎，内外资对权益市场的增配有望共振，国内居民 权益类资产配置仍有广阔提升空间，A股新高可期。（中国基金报） ...

Core Insights - The 2026 strategy conference held by Dongfang Caifu Securities focused on the theme "Intelligent Wave: Rising East," discussing new missions and opportunities in the Chinese capital market [3] - The logic of asset revaluation in China is expected to continue, with both domestic and foreign investments likely to increase in the equity market, indicating potential for new highs in A-shares [9] Group 1: Economic and Market Outlook - Dongfang Caifu Securities' Chief Strategist Chen Guo predicts that the logic of asset revaluation will persist into 2026, with significant room for improvement in domestic residents' equity asset allocation [9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, supported by proactive fiscal policies and continued monetary easing, as well as the advancement of major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [11] Group 2: AI and Industry Transformation - The application of AI is seen as a core driver for upgrading China's real economy, transforming the financial system, and deepening the functions of the capital market [8] - AI is anticipated to reshape industry ecosystems, creating a feedback loop that enhances user understanding and engagement, leading to a more personalized service model in finance [11] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Expectations - The market is expected to experience a "confidence revaluation bull market" in 2025, with corporate earnings projected to recover and exceed market expectations [9] - Investors are advised to focus on three key expectations: corporate earnings exceeding forecasts, advancements in AI, and the potential for increased pragmatic cooperation between China and the U.S. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 strategy conference held by Dongfang Caifu Securities emphasizes the ongoing asset revaluation logic in China, with expectations for increased allocation to equity markets by both domestic and foreign investors, indicating a potential for new highs in A-shares [2][8]. Group 1: Economic and Market Outlook - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on the transformation towards intelligent, green, and integrated industries, which is central to national development strategy [5]. - The application of AI is seen as a pivotal factor in determining China's new position in the global economy, with expectations for per capita GDP to exceed $20,000 by 2030 and a securities rate surpassing 200% [7]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, supported by proactive fiscal policies and continued monetary easing, alongside significant project construction under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The chief strategist of Dongfang Caifu Securities, Chen Guo, forecasts a "confidence revaluation bull market" in 2025, with corporate earnings expected to exceed market expectations and a recovery from the previous downward cycle [9]. - Key areas of focus for 2026 include potential outperformance in corporate earnings, advancements in AI, and the expansion of pragmatic cooperation between China and the U.S. [9]. - The integration of AI into various sectors is anticipated to create a personalized wealth management experience, enhancing service models from standardized to deeply customized offerings [11].