赚 钱 效 应 。 作者 I 杨继云 报道 I 投资界PEdaily 这 是 我 们 最 近 见 到 的 一 幕 。 起因是一家知名医疗公司赴港上市的投行刚刚定下来，一家知名VC机构合伙人电话就被 打爆了——都是让帮忙协调，抢基石份额。电话那头并不掩饰，"给点机会，让我们也参 与一下。" 今 年 港 股 基 石 投 资 火 爆 ， 历 历 在 目 。 回 想 前 几 年 ， 赴 港 上 市 还 困 在 " 找 不 到 基 石 投 资 人"的尴尬局面，不少IPO一度发不出去。 世界变化太快，现在港股基石轮不愁了——无论是我们熟悉的高瓴、红杉中国、CPE源 峰，还是浩浩荡荡的地方国资，都不约而同出现在基石阵容里，"投进，就赚到了。" 一席难求 基石轮挤不进去 盛况要从宁德时代说起。 5月2 0日，宁德时代正式登陆港交所，彻底把港股基石的热度点燃了——吸引了包括能源 央企、主权财富基金、全球资管巨头、知名市场化机构在内的23家基石投资者，认购了 2 0 3 .7 1亿港元，约占全球发售股份的65.7%。 阵容梦幻。其中，科威特投资局（KIA）认购约38 . 76亿港元，占比1 2 .5%；中国石化认 购约3 8 . ...

8月25日，A股主要指数高开高走，沪深两市成交额逾3万亿元。AI、半导体等科技赛道的龙头股表现强 势，成为推动市场上行的重要力量。 截至收盘，上证指数涨1.51%，报3883.56点；深证成指涨2.26%，报12441.07点；创业板指涨3.00%，报 2762.99点。沪深两市成交额总计3.14万亿元，仅次于2024年10月8日的3.45万亿元。 市场活跃度显著提升 8月25日，从A股开盘伊始，投资者便展现出较高的参与热情。开盘不足半小时，两市成交额就已连续 第63个交易日突破1万亿元。截至收盘，A股已连续9个交易日成交额超过2万亿元。 从个股来看，有5只个股成交额超200亿元，14只个股成交额超100亿元，绝大多数为科技龙头股，包括 寒武纪-U、海光信息、中兴通讯、胜宏科技、中芯国际等。 数据显示，2025年以来，A股累计成交额已达236.82万亿元，超越历史上大多数年份的全年成交额，仅 次于2021年、2024年和2015年。这一数据反映出今年市场活跃度的显著提升。 上证指数日K线图 张大伟 制图 数据显示，2025年以来，A股累计成交额已达236.82万亿元，超越历史上大多数年份的全年成交额，仅 次于 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high since September 2015, closing at 3825.76 points, with significant contributions from the technology and consumer sectors, driven by optimistic expectations regarding domestic chip replacement and consumption policies [4][14][39] - The report identifies sectors that have not yet reached their previous highs and may experience a rebound, including steel, pharmaceuticals, environmental protection, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture [6][28][36] Market Review - The report notes that from August 18 to August 22, 2025, the A-share market saw a continuous increase, with total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, indicating ample market liquidity [4][14] - The technology and consumer sectors led the market rally, benefiting from accelerated domestic chip replacement and renewed emphasis on stimulating consumption [4][14] Focus on Potential Rebound Sectors - The report emphasizes that many indices and sectors have not yet surpassed their previous highs, particularly the "Double Innovation" index, which remains significantly below its 2021 peak [5][17] - It identifies 20 first-level industries that have not returned to their September 2021 highs, with cyclical and consumer sectors recovering more slowly [18][24] Strategies for Identifying Rebound Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on industries that have not yet returned to their September 2021 highs and have seen upward adjustments in profit expectations since June 2025 [6][28] - Key first-level industries identified include steel, pharmaceuticals, environmental protection, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, which have shown improved profit expectations [28][31] Outlook for the Market - The report maintains a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, predicting a "slow bull" market trend, supported by ample liquidity and improving fundamentals [7][36] - It highlights the importance of macroeconomic policies and technological advancements in sustaining market strength, particularly in sectors like AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [36][38]

智通财经获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，9月或为人民币汇率升值的观察窗口。若反内卷政策陆续推 行、有效落实，中国企业竞争格局将得到显著改善；若人民币重回6时代叠加实际有效汇率升值将放大 中国权益资产吸引力，外资大概率流入并强化通胀、内需策略，中国资产进而迎来全面重估，龙头白马 标的尤其是消费等内需资产或已迎来配置窗口。 一、国内资产"PPI—流动性框架"：PPI决定大类资产风格，流动性决定β，实际上，该框架恰恰反映了 不同宏观经济周期阶段对各类资产的影响。 国内资产"PPI—流动性四象限框架"：以流动性为横轴，决定各类资产方向；以PPI为纵轴，决定各类资 产风格。进而，第一象限"流动性扩张+PPI上行"对应经济周期中的过热场景，顺周期资产强势，债券偏 弱；第二象限"流动性收缩+PPI上行" 对应滞胀场景，短久期资产有结构性行情；第三象限"流动性收缩 +PPI下行"对应衰退场景，股弱债强，哑铃型策略占优；第四象限"流动性扩张+PPI下行"对应复苏场 景，股债双牛，但仍是哑铃型策略。2024年924之前国内资产处于第三象限；924至今年上半年国内资产 处于第四象限。 中国作为生产国，PPI很大程度决定了国内企业盈利 ...

钛媒体App 8月24日消息，招商宏观报告称，9月或为人民币汇率升值的观察窗口。去年9月美联储降息 令人民币结汇规模大增。今年9月若美联储如期降息，只要央行顺势而为，人民币汇率即会升值。7月14 日央行副行长邹澜曾表示，市场对美联储重启降息的预期升温，中美货币政策周期的错位将得到改善， 中美利差趋于收窄。这一表述似乎也隐含了中国国债收益率回升与人民币汇率升值（实际有效汇率）的 前景。若反内卷政策陆续推行、有效落实，中国企业竞争格局将得到显著改善；若人民币重回6时代叠 加实际有效汇率升值将放大中国权益资产吸引力，外资（long only）大概率流入并强化通胀、内需策 略，中国资产进而迎来全面重估，龙头白马标的尤其是消费等内需资产或已迎来配置窗口。（广角观 察） ...

招商宏观报告称，9月或为人民币汇率升值的观察窗口。去年9月美联储降息令人民币结汇规模大增。今 年9月若美联储如期降息，只要央行顺势而为，人民币汇率即会升值。7月14日央行副行长邹澜曾表示， 市场对美联储重启降息的预期升温，中美货币政策周期的错位将得到改善，中美利差趋于收窄。这一表 述似乎也隐含了中国国债收益率回升与人民币汇率升值的前景。若反内卷政策陆续推行、有效落实，中 国企业竞争格局将得到显著改善；若人民币重回6时代叠加实际有效汇率升值将放大中国权益资产吸引 力，外资大概率流入并强化通胀、内需策略，中国资产进而迎来全面重估，龙头白马标的尤其是消费等 内需资产或已迎来配置窗口。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 08 月 23 日 PPI、人民币汇率与中国资产重估 一、国内资产"PPI—流动性框架"：PPI 决定大类资产风格，流动性决定 β，实际上，该框架恰恰反映了不同宏观经济周期阶段对各类资产的影响。 二、PPI 何时转正？反内卷影响几何？ 三、若人民币汇率重回 6 时代，中国资产或迎全面重估 相关报告 宏观专题报告 1、《全球产能周期或已进入 "购设备"阶段》2025-08-18 2、《关税对美国经济的影响几 何？》2025-08-16 3、《央国企科技创新系列报告 之五———央国企产业布局与 "十五五"规划前瞻研究》 2025-08-03 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 王泺宾 S1090523070007 wangluobin@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 专题报告 ❑ 国内资产"PPI—流动性四象限框架"：以流动性为横轴，决定各类资产 方向；以 PPI 为纵轴，决定各类资产风格。进而，第一象限"流动性扩张 +PPI 上行"对应经济周期中的过热场景，顺周期资产强势，债券偏弱 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese economy and its structural adjustments, particularly in relation to export dynamics and the performance of listed companies in the context of global markets [1][2][3][5][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Structure Optimization**: The increase in the share of self-owned brands in exports has led to significant profit growth for companies with over 50% overseas business, validating the shift in economic structure [1][3]. - **Global Economic Recovery**: The global economy is in a recovery phase, with European PMI improving and Chinese brands expanding their market share, contributing to growth [1][5]. - **Misinterpretation of Economic Conditions**: The perception of a "spending method recession illusion" arises from an overemphasis on demand-side factors, neglecting positive supply-side developments such as product quality improvements and advancements in AI and new energy vehicles [1][6]. - **Manufacturing Competitiveness**: The key to the revaluation of Chinese assets lies in the enhancement of manufacturing competitiveness and integration into the global supply chain, rather than decoupling [9][10]. - **Market Sentiment and Valuation**: A shift in market sentiment is observed, with high turnover rates indicating extreme market enthusiasm, yet caution is advised due to potential short-term risks [13][14][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Investment Opportunities**: The combination of rising household deposits and declining financial product yields is driving funds into the stock market, enhancing the market's profit-making effect [20]. - **Valuation Disparities**: There is a notable divergence in industry valuations, with high-growth sectors outperforming low-growth ones, indicating a trend towards new core assets formed by globalization and brand expansion [19][21]. - **Long-term vs Short-term Outlook**: While the long-term outlook for the Chinese economy and equity markets remains optimistic, the current trading environment is characterized by high valuations, suggesting that it may not be an ideal time for new investments [18][21]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics of the Chinese economy, the performance of listed companies, and the implications for investors.

沪指突破10年新高之际，央视财经也罕见的出现了评论，认为A股总市值突破100万亿元大关，有更深远的意义，因为股市是经济的晴 雨表，总市值的稳步增长是中国经济稳健发展的最有利佐证。 更为重要的是，当前的沪深300动态市盈率大约为14倍，比2015年同期水平还要低，并且跟全球的主要市值比较也处于合理的具有吸引 力的区间，结论是目前中国资产的系统性重估才刚刚重启。 这段话不要看句子不长，当中的指引性和意义却不小，我觉得重点有以下几个核心： 其一，央视财经评论虽然不能算过于权威，然而其在媒体中的重量是不可小视的，特别是在指数突破了10年高点之际，出来喊话还是值 得我们去重新认识市场； 其二，以当前的沪深300动态市盈率看大约只有14倍，比2025年同期的水平还要低，这里其实我们最好看看2015年这个时候指数处在一 个什么样的状态，我看了一下上证指数处在4000点附近，如此的话，说明目前的指数位置依然比较低，并不是大家担心的那样，到了10 年高点附近，市场的高位问题； 其三，100万亿市值这个水平，和全球的主要市场的估值比较，也是比较有吸引力的，这本质上经过对比，对目前沪指上了3700点之后 是不是高估给了比较明确的定 ...

Core Viewpoint - KKR has successfully launched its first onshore RMB fund in Shanghai, marking a significant milestone in its commitment to the Chinese market and reflecting the growing interest of foreign capital in Chinese assets [3][4][7]. Fund Details - The fund, named Kaide Shipu (Shanghai) Private Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership), was established in June 2025 and registered in Shanghai's Pudong district, focusing on equity investments in RMB [5][6]. - The fund management is handled by Kaide Private Fund Management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., backed by KKR, with notable limited partners including Ping An Capital and the TPC family office from Singapore [6][7]. Market Context - The A-share market has recently surpassed a total market capitalization of 100 trillion yuan for the first time, indicating a robust market environment that is attracting foreign investment [3][14]. - There is a notable influx of foreign private equity firms establishing operations in China, with several new fund management companies registered in 2023, highlighting the increasing appeal of the Chinese market [13]. KKR's Investment Strategy - KKR's investment strategy focuses on mature industries with stable competitive landscapes, aiming for companies with strong pricing power and potential for operational efficiency improvements [10]. - Despite a decrease in the number of investments in recent years due to pricing discrepancies between buyers and sellers, KKR believes that there are more acquisition opportunities now than in the past [10]. Recent Acquisitions - KKR is actively pursuing acquisitions in China, including the recent approval for the acquisition of shares in Yuanjing International, associated with the popular Da Yao soda brand [10][11]. - The firm is also competing in the bidding for Starbucks' business in China, indicating its aggressive stance in the market [10]. Foreign Investment Sentiment - There is a growing recognition among global investors that the best assets are in China, with a significant increase in interest in Chinese technology companies and innovative pharmaceuticals [14][15]. - The sentiment reflects a broader trend of foreign capital seeking to capitalize on China's vast consumer market and supply chain capabilities [15].