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碳中和系列:“十五五”碳达峰决胜期,政策深化下的投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-30 10:54
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the carbon neutrality sector, emphasizing the emergence of multi-layered and long-term investment opportunities driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and the deepening of the national carbon market [3][11]. Core Insights - The transition towards a green economy in China has moved from conceptual advocacy to a substantive phase, creating a systematic investment landscape centered around four dimensions: energy system restructuring, industrial green premium, carbon reduction technology expansion, and the rise of supporting services [3][11]. Summary by Sections Carbon Peak and Neutrality Policy Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" are critical periods for achieving carbon peak goals, with a comprehensive "1+N" policy system established to guide the transition [9][18]. - The energy consumption dual control is transitioning to carbon emission dual control, with a three-phase approach leading to comprehensive implementation by 2025 [9][22]. Market-Based Emission Reduction Mechanism - The carbon market's core mechanism is to guide carbon pricing through quotas, CCER, and green certificates [10][31]. - By the end of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the national carbon market is expected to reach 860 million tons, with a transaction value of 58.12 billion yuan and an average price of 67.6 yuan per ton [42][43]. Investment Strategy: Four-Dimensional Industrial Opportunities - The dual carbon process will create multi-layered, long-cycle investment opportunities across four dimensions: 1. **Energy System Restructuring**: Focus on new power systems, emphasizing photovoltaic and wind power technology advancements, and integrating non-electric applications like green hydrogen [11]. 2. **Industrial Green Premium**: The internalization of carbon costs is reshaping high-energy-consuming industries, providing cost advantages to companies with low-carbon processes [11]. 3. **Carbon Reduction Technology Breakthroughs**: Technologies in hard-to-abate sectors are entering a phase of scale, with significant demand for energy-saving equipment and recycling technologies [11]. 4. **Emergence of Carbon Management Services**: The assetization of carbon is driving demand for carbon monitoring, accounting platforms, and professional services to help companies manage risks and optimize assets [11].