市场对美联储降息预期调整
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贸易紧张局势缓和金价再度走低
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-15 02:19
Core Viewpoint - The decline in gold prices is primarily driven by the easing of global trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, which has led investors to shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On May 14, international gold prices closed at $3176.49 per ounce, down $73.03 or 2.25%, with a daily high of $3256.87 and a low of $3167.69 [1]. - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a significant reduction in tariffs between the U.S. and China, which has improved market risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Gold ETF Holdings - As of May 14, gold ETF holdings remained stable at 936.51 tons, with a total value of approximately $96.09 billion [2]. - The stability in gold ETF holdings indicates a balance in market sentiment, with no significant increase or decrease in buying pressure [2]. Group 3: Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.08% to 101.04, contributing additional pressure on gold prices as the dollar rebounded from earlier losses [3]. - U.S. Treasury yields reached a six-week high, with the 10-year yield surpassing the 4.5% mark, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have shifted, with the probability of a September cut dropping to 74% from earlier expectations of a July action [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold price has failed to establish a bullish reversal pattern, indicating limited downside potential, with key support levels at $3165 and the 60-day moving average [4].