通胀数据显示，九月PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，环比上升0.3%。核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，略 低于预期。尽管通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，但数据基本符合市场预期。 劳动力市场方面，消费支出的停滞表明美国经济在政府停摆前已经放缓。九月美国消费者实际可支配收 入连续两个月几乎没有增长，商品支出出现五月以来最大降幅。 美国国债收益率近期攀升至数月高位，投资者对美联储明年的降息空间产生质疑。十年期美债收益率升 至两个月多来最高水平，全球多数政府债券市场同步下跌。 市场交易员正为本周三场美国债券招标做准备。财政部将发行580亿美元的3年期国债，随后分别发行 390亿美元的10年期国债和220亿美元的30年期国债。财政部调整了招标时间安排，以配合美联储为期两 天的政策会议。 与此同时，投资者已将美联储本周降息25个基点的概率定价至90%左右。然而令人困惑的现象出现了， 尽管市场预期美联储继续宽松，长期债券收益率却持续上扬。自去年9月美联储启动降息周期以来，十 年期国债收益率不降反升，累计攀升近50个基点。 这种反常现象被称为反向"格林斯潘利率之谜"。历史上，央行调整短期政策利率时，长期债券收益率通 常会同向变 ...

Core Viewpoint - DZ Bank predicts the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, followed by cautious actions in the coming months [1] Interest Rate Predictions - The bank forecasts two additional rate cuts in March and June, each by 25 basis points [1] - The expected rate cuts are influenced by rising inflation due to temporary tariff effects and significant government deficits [1] Bond Yield Expectations - DZ Bank anticipates that despite the rate cuts, inflation will drive the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield higher [1] - The forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is to rise from the current 4.103% to 4.50% in three months and to 4.60% in six months [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to attempt to stay above $3,370 [1] - Despite a rebound in the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, gold prices have still increased [4] - If gold prices maintain above $3,360, they are expected to move towards the August high of around $3,400 [4] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices have retreated due to profit-taking after a strong rebound from recent lows [1][7] - If silver can close above $39.00, it will aim for resistance levels of $39.80 to $40.00 [7] Group 3: Platinum Market - Platinum failed to break through the strong resistance level of $1,345 to $1,350 and has fallen to the $1,330 level [1][9] - A drop below $1,330 will push platinum towards support levels of $1,300 to $1,305 [9]

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported a global outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $1.83 billion, primarily driven by North American funds responding to changing tariff threats [1] - North American listed funds experienced an outflow of 15.6 tons of gold, worth $1.5 billion, as investor risk appetite improved due to better-than-expected temporary tariff relief between the US and China [1] - The report warns that the current neutral monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may pose headwinds for gold in the summer, although inflation concerns and unsustainable debt levels could mitigate these risks [1] Group 2 - European-listed ETFs saw a modest inflow of 1.6 tons, valued at $224 million, with France leading the inflow as investors sought protection amid economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - In Asia, there was a notable outflow of 4.8 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $489 million, marking the first outflow since November 2024, following a record demand in April [3] - The World Gold Council remains optimistic about gold's potential for appreciation, citing that inflation has not significantly increased due to global trade tensions and rising tariffs [3]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and increased concerns over the U.S. debt burden and tax legislation [2] - Global equity funds experienced a net outflow of $9.4 billion last week, marking the first weekly outflow in six weeks, contrasting sharply with over $20 billion inflow the previous week [2] - U.S. equity funds led the outflows with redemptions totaling $11 billion, followed by Asian funds with $4.6 billion in redemptions, while European equity funds recorded a net inflow of $5.4 billion [5] Group 2 - Emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $403 million for the fourth consecutive week, continuing a positive trend, while emerging market equity funds experienced a slight outflow [8] - Despite the outflow in emerging market equity funds, they have attracted $10.6 billion year-to-date, representing a 43% increase compared to the same period last year [8] - Interest in emerging markets has been rekindled, partly due to concerns over the end of U.S. exceptionalism and a lack of clarity regarding U.S. ambitions and intentions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in gold prices is primarily driven by the easing of global trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, which has led investors to shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On May 14, international gold prices closed at $3176.49 per ounce, down $73.03 or 2.25%, with a daily high of $3256.87 and a low of $3167.69 [1]. - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a significant reduction in tariffs between the U.S. and China, which has improved market risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Gold ETF Holdings - As of May 14, gold ETF holdings remained stable at 936.51 tons, with a total value of approximately $96.09 billion [2]. - The stability in gold ETF holdings indicates a balance in market sentiment, with no significant increase or decrease in buying pressure [2]. Group 3: Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.08% to 101.04, contributing additional pressure on gold prices as the dollar rebounded from earlier losses [3]. - U.S. Treasury yields reached a six-week high, with the 10-year yield surpassing the 4.5% mark, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have shifted, with the probability of a September cut dropping to 74% from earlier expectations of a July action [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold price has failed to establish a bullish reversal pattern, indicating limited downside potential, with key support levels at $3165 and the 60-day moving average [4].

Core Viewpoint - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields is concerning, indicating ongoing investor worries about U.S. debt and fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets, bond markets, and the dollar have faced a triple sell-off over several weeks due to tariff uncertainties [1] - Positive news regarding U.S. tariff agreements has boosted the stock market and the dollar, but has not positively impacted U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - While tariff talks are expected to have a positive impact on economic growth, persistently high yield levels suggest that the fiscal trajectory in the U.S. remains troubling [1] - Ongoing budget negotiations in the U.S. Congress will be critical for the bond market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a steepening yield curve ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [1] - The increase in yields is influenced by recent employment data, which is constraining the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] - Economists at Pimco predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates before later this year unless there is a significant slowdown or contraction in the labor market [1]