Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, China Nonferrous Mining, and Shandong Gold [1][1][1] - The US dollar index has been rebounding continuously, surpassing the 99 mark, driven by a temporary risk aversion due to the US government shutdown [1][1][1] - International gold prices have sharply declined, with spot gold falling below $3960 per ounce, influenced by the rising dollar index and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][1][1] Group 2 - Citic Futures indicates that while there may be short-term price surges in basic metals due to supply disruptions and speculative trading, there is a risk of price corrections if no further macroeconomic positive factors emerge [1][1][1] - Long-term expectations for domestic stimulus policies and ongoing supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a tightening supply-demand dynamic, which could further elevate basic metal prices [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1013.44 tons of gold as of October 9, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.14 tons from the previous trading day. The gold price experienced significant volatility, dropping over $100 from its historical high of $4060 per ounce to a low of $3945.03, before closing at $3976.05, marking a decline of $65.40 or 1.62% [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 9, gold prices initially fell to around $4000 per ounce but later saw a brief recovery before facing substantial selling pressure, leading to a drop of over $100 [4]. - Analysts attribute the adjustment in gold prices to a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, profit-taking sentiment, and a rebound in the US dollar index [4]. - The positive news regarding a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has alleviated market risk aversion, contributing to the decline in gold prices [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose by 0.6%, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increased by 2 basis points to 4.148%, which are factors influencing the adjustment in gold prices [4]. - There is a consensus among institutions that the recent rise in global assets since September was based on expectations of a "weak dollar," but the market's consensus on shorting the dollar may pose a reversal risk [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs and robust central bank demand, indicating a positive long-term outlook for gold [5]. - Despite the current technical correction in gold prices, the market remains supported by ongoing government shutdowns and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on further rate cuts due to uncertainties in inflation and the labor market [5]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold prices can reclaim the $4000 level, they may test historical highs of $4059, with further resistance at $4100 and $4150 [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut led some investors to take profits, resulting in downward pressure on gold prices, with December gold futures closing at $3678.3 per ounce, a decline of 1.06% [2] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline due to geopolitical conflicts and weak U.S. crude oil demand, despite the potential economic stimulation from the Fed's rate cut [2] - Light crude oil futures for October delivery closed at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, while November Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [3]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce, influenced by a hawkish speech from Powell following the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The Fed's rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, with no significant deterioration in U.S. employment and inflation risks, suggesting a gradual approach to future rate cuts, particularly slowing down after 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that gold prices may experience a new upward trend following a breakthrough in early September, potentially lasting until the spring or summer of 2026, with recommendations for investors to maintain a bullish stance on precious metals [1] Group 2 - Despite high U.S. Treasury yields in the first half of the year and a nearly 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry and central bank demand, gold ETFs saw the strongest capital inflow since 2020, with a net inflow of nearly 400 tons, accounting for 17% of total gold demand in the first half of the year [1] - The overall judgment from the industry indicates that gold prices typically exhibit a pattern of "initial rise followed by adjustment, with long-term benefits" during interest rate cut cycles, suggesting a potential for price increases in the medium to long term [4] - The industry remains cautious about short-term risks of price adjustments following the rate cut, while still recognizing the long-term investment value of gold, especially if geopolitical risks escalate or recession is confirmed [4]

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The dollar index experienced a significant decline of over 10% in the first half of the year due to a series of unpredictable policies from the Trump administration, but rebounded in July with a monthly increase of over 3% [2][3] - Positive economic data in July, including a robust labor market, stable inflation, and a 3% increase in Q2 GDP, contributed to the dollar's rebound despite the actual economic situation being less optimistic [3] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, as indicated by Powell's refusal to yield to pressure for rate cuts, has led to a decrease in market expectations for future rate cuts [4] Group 2: Tariff Policies and Fiscal Impact - The U.S. tariff revenue surged to $16 billion in April, marking a 130% year-on-year increase, with subsequent months also showing record high revenues [6] - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, the overall fiscal improvement in June was primarily due to a reduction in expenditures rather than increased revenue, highlighting the limitations of tariff policies [7] - The trade deficit did not show substantial improvement, as the reduction in imports was not due to a manufacturing rebound but rather a decrease in consumer and business demand [7][8] Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The release of disappointing non-farm payroll data in August, with only 73,000 new jobs added, raised concerns about the labor market and led to speculation about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The accuracy of the non-farm payroll data has been questioned due to a significant drop in survey response rates, which may have contributed to frequent revisions of employment figures [9][10] - The outlook for the dollar index suggests continued volatility below the 100 mark, with potential support from large-scale fiscal stimulus measures planned by the Trump administration [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the US-EU trade agreement, the rebound of the US dollar, and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 774.32 RMB per gram, up by 0.49% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3384.9 USD per ounce, increasing by 0.11% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The US-EU trade agreement reached on July 27, where the EU will increase purchases of over 1.3 trillion USD of US products, alleviates global trade war concerns, boosting market risk appetite and stock markets, but may suppress gold prices [2]. - The rebound of the US dollar index, supported by strong US economic data, has pressured gold prices as it increases the cost of gold for non-US currency holders [3]. - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance have reduced the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, leading to weaker buying interest [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices may continue to fluctuate due to mixed factors, with potential downward pressure if trade tensions ease, the dollar strengthens, or the Fed maintains a hawkish stance [4]. - Long-term factors such as global central bank gold purchases, geopolitical tensions, and inflation hedging demand may still drive gold prices higher, necessitating close monitoring of key developments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index is attributed to higher-than-expected US CPI data, which reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This has led to a mixed performance of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, with the yuan's middle rate reaching a low of 7.1461, while the spot trading price has shown a depreciation trend [1][5][10]. Group 1: US Dollar and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has seen a continuous rise, with a cumulative increase of over 2% as of July 17, marking the longest upward trend this year [1]. - The US June CPI data exceeded expectations, with core inflation at 2.9%, which is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5][6]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has decreased, with current market pricing showing only a 53.5% chance of a cut, down from 59.3% [5]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Yuan - The Chinese yuan has shown signs of weakness against the dollar, with a depreciation of over 200 points in recent days, despite the middle rate signaling stability [1][10]. - The yuan's middle rate has deviated from model predictions by nearly -240 points, indicating a potential adjustment to strengthen the yuan [10]. - The future exchange rate of USD/CNY is expected to follow the dollar index's movements, but the depreciation of the yuan may be less pronounced, with estimates suggesting a 1:5 ratio of dollar index strength to yuan depreciation [11]. Group 3: Tariff Effects and Inflation - The impact of tariffs is beginning to show, with significant price increases in home goods and appliances, which are key categories affected by tariffs [6][7]. - There is a concern that as inventory levels deplete, inflation may rise due to the need for businesses to restock, potentially leading to cost pass-through to consumers [8]. - Labor shortages in key industries due to immigration policies may also contribute to upward wage pressures, further influencing inflation [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, with potential for increased actions from the Trump administration as tariff revenues rise [12]. - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of the US fiscal policy, with expectations that the costs of new fiscal stimulus may outweigh its economic benefits [13]. - The forecast for US 10-year Treasury yields is projected to reach 4.9% in Q4, influenced by ongoing budget deficits and market volatility [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in July despite pressure from President Trump, as recent inflation data does not support a rate cut [2][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% [2]. - The core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, which is below the expected 0.3% [6]. Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.6% [4]. - President Trump has called for an immediate reduction of the federal funds rate by 300 basis points, arguing that inflation is very low [5]. - The recent CPI data has accelerated the rebound of the US dollar index, with an initial target for this rebound expected to test the 99.50-100 range [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, currently at $3284.47 per ounce, with a decline of 0.51% [1] - The recent rebound of the US dollar index is limiting the bullish momentum for gold, as the market is under strong resistance [1] - The extension of the tariff agreement by Trump until August 1 has provided temporary relief to the market, but the long-term macro pressures on the dollar remain significant, including rising public debt and deficit concerns [2] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, as a dovish tone could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are currently fluctuating, with key support at $3280 and resistance around $3335; a break below $3297 could lead to further declines [4] - If geopolitical risks escalate or negotiations fail, the dollar's support may be short-lived, leading to a renewed focus on gold [2]