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VT Markets交易指南:FOMC后波动性的三大应对策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 07:12
很少有事件能像美联储降息消息那样,对市场产生如此显著且可预测的影响。据VT Markets研究,每次 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议都会重塑市场对经济增长、通胀及流动性的预期。 即便美联储政策符合市场预期,交易者仍会重新评估未来降息的速度与幅度,导致价格走势剧烈波动。 VT Markets指出,FOMC会议后的市场波动,往往与会议决定本身关系不大,而更多取决于会议传递的 信号如何改变市场前景。 声明中的一个短语,或主席语气中的细微变化,都可能在几分钟内引发收益率、货币和股票的逆向波 动。对交易者而言,美联储降息消息已成为波动性事件,而非方向性明确信号。 FOMC会议后,市场通常如何反应? 降息消息公布后,市场的第一反应往往并非最终结果。VT Markets观察显示,在消息发布后的首个小时 内,市场通常剧烈波动——算法交易者和短线交易者会迅速对新闻标题做出反应。但一旦交易者消化完 整声明和新闻发布会内容,这种初始走势可能迅速逆转。 鸽派信号起初可能削弱美元,但如果美联储抑制激进宽松预期,美元将企稳。股市可能因降息消息上 涨,但若降息源于经济放缓而非市场信心,涨势可能停滞。这就是为何FOMC会议后的市场波动常 ...
Abacus Life(ABL) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-08 22:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 more than doubled year over year to $44.1 million from $21.5 million [6][13] - Adjusted net income increased to $17.3 million, representing a 158% increase compared to $6.7 million in the prior year [15] - Adjusted EBITDA also more than doubled to $24.5 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 55.6% compared to 53.9% in the prior year [15] - GAAP net income attributable to stockholders was $4.6 million, compared to a GAAP net loss of $1.3 million in the prior year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Life Solutions revenue was a key driver, with capital deployed increasing 128% to $124.9 million in Q1 2025 compared to $54.6 million in the prior year [13] - Asset management revenue for Q1 2025 was $7.8 million, marking the first full quarter of asset management fees from acquisitions [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New AUM inflows of $151 million were recorded, with approximately $123 million coming from expanded private fund offerings launched in late February [9][10] - The real assets ETF saw an increase in net new inflows of $44 million in the first quarter [10][72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its position as a leader in alternative asset management and wealth management, focusing on uncorrelated assets [12] - A rebranding to Abacus Global Management reflects the company's evolution and expanded global market presence [10] - The company is committed to executing its growth strategy and expanding its brand recognition through a new advertising campaign [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating current market volatility and achieving full-year 2025 adjusted net income guidance of $70 million to $78 million, implying growth of 51% to 68% [6][16] - The macro environment remains uncertain, but the company believes it is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities arising from market dislocations [9][12] Other Important Information - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $43.8 million and balance sheet policy assets of $448.1 million [9][16] - The company has purchased over $10 billion in face value of life insurance policies since February 2004 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Has there been an uptick in inquiries from policyholders since Liberation Day? - Management noted a noticeable increase in inquiries related to policyholder liquidity and investor demand for uncorrelated assets [20][21] Question: How does the company view the new repurchase authorization? - The company considers the repurchase option thoughtfully, evaluating stock valuation against return on equity from policies acquired [23][24] Question: Is the company fully deployed today? - Management confirmed that the capital deployment of nearly $125 million in Q1 was a record and indicated strong origination efforts [27][28] Question: What are the latest thoughts on the carrier buyback program? - Management reported ongoing activity in the carrier buyback program and noted increasing competition for assets [31][33] Question: Can you provide an update on technology solutions? - The technology solutions segment has nearly one million lives under management, with significant growth expected [41][42] Question: What is the mix of policy acquisitions? - Approximately 40% of policy flow was direct to consumer, 40% from financial advisors, and 20% from brokers [66] Question: What is the status of the AUM and advisor strategy? - The company reported significant inflows in both private funds and ETFs, with plans to grow the advisor strategy in the coming quarters [71][77]