摩根大通CEO戴蒙：不幸的是，我认为金融市场存在自满情绪。 ...

来源 | 华尔街见闻 华尔街正在举办一场夏日狂欢派对。美国市场刚刚收官了一年多来最佳的跨资产涨势，关税和地 缘冲突担忧的消退引发了从科技基金到垃圾债券的全面买入狂潮。 周五，标普500指数创下自2月以来首个历史新高，在经济、估值和政府政策高度不确定的时刻， 投资者乐观情绪获得了胜利， 似乎又回到了"坏消息就是好消息"的状况。 尽管失业金申请人数上升、房地产市场持续低迷、全球贸易疲软以及美联储即将降息的希望消 退，但看涨者仍紧抓通胀降温和消费者信心改善的迹象。看涨信心不减反增，飙升至特朗普重返 白宫以来的最高水平， 推动股票、债券、大宗商品和信用债市场同步上涨，与2024年5月以来的 最大月度涨幅相媲美。 Tikehau Capital资本市场策略主管Raphael Thuin表示： "市场正在表现出自满的迹象。无论是贸易谈判、宏观经济普遍放缓、地缘政治紧张局 势、财政赤字不断扩大还是利率上升，市场参与者似乎都在对乐观结果进行定价。" 比特币重新站上10万美元， 创下近两个月来最好的一周 。 Coinbase Global Inc.创下2021年以来 首个历史新高。 风 险 狂 潮 未 受 影 响 乐 观 情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Royal Bank warns that the S&P 500 could drop by 20% due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran, suggesting that the market may be overly complacent about the potential escalation of the situation [7][8]. Market Reactions - Global stock markets showed a positive trend despite the ongoing conflict, with the Nasdaq index achieving its largest single-day percentage gain since late May [4][5]. - On Monday, major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.75% to 42,515.09 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.94% to 6,033.11 points, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.52% to 19,701.21 points [5]. - However, on Tuesday, market sentiment reversed, with WTI crude oil prices rising by 1.44% and gold prices also increasing slightly, while U.S. stock index futures declined [2][5]. Analyst Warnings - Analysts express concerns that investors may be underestimating the risks of a broader conflict in the Middle East, with warnings that the situation could escalate into a prolonged war [7][8]. - RBC analysts predict that the S&P 500 could fall to a range of 4,800 to 5,200 points, indicating a potential decline of up to 20% due to the adverse effects of the conflict [7]. - The market's current trajectory is seen as overly optimistic, with analysts suggesting that the ongoing conflict could have significant implications for U.S. stock valuations, corporate earnings, and economic growth [8].