【美债波动率或创2009年以来最大年度降幅】受美联储降息有效降低经济衰退风险的影响，衡量美国债 券市场波动率的一项指标正趋向于金融危机以来最大的年度跌幅。ICE BofA MOVE指数（衡量债市预 期波动率的指标）上周五已跌至约59，创2024年10月以来的最低水平。该指数从2024年底的99左右一路 走低，有望创下自1988年有数据记录以来最剧烈的年度降幅之一，仅次于2009年的暴跌。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Freeport's copper production decreased by 5.2% quarter-on-quarter to 413,700 tons, with a year-on-year decline of 13.1% due to a mud leak incident at PTFI and declining ore grades [2][3] - The average realized price for copper in Q3 2025 was $4.68 per pound, reflecting an increase of 8.8% year-on-year and 3.1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average unit net cash cost for copper was $1.40 per pound, up 0.7% year-on-year and 23.9% quarter-on-quarter, but below the guidance of $1.59 per pound in July 2025 [3][4] - Gold production in Q3 2025 was 287,000 ounces, down 37.1% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the same mud leak incident [7] - Molybdenum production in Q3 2025 was 22 million pounds, a decrease of 32.5% year-on-year, while the average realized price increased by 5.2% year-on-year to $24.07 per pound [8] Summary by Sections Production and Sales - Q3 2025 copper production was 912 million pounds, with sales of 977 million pounds, both showing declines compared to the previous year [14] - Q3 2025 gold sales were 336,000 ounces, down 39.8% year-on-year [14] - Q3 2025 molybdenum sales were 19 million pounds, remaining stable year-on-year [14] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $6.972 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [15] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $1.972 billion, up 1.8% year-on-year [15] - Net income attributable to common stock was $674 million, with earnings per share of $0.46, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.1% [15] Future Outlook - For 2025, total expected sales are approximately 3.5 billion pounds of copper, 1.05 million ounces of gold, and 82 million pounds of molybdenum, with a significant portion of production expected to ramp up in late 2025 and 2026 [9][10] - The Grasberg mine is set to resume large-scale production in Q2 2026, with anticipated copper and gold production levels expected to match 2025 estimates [13]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in interest rate decisions among Federal Reserve officials is impacting gold prices, leading to a decline in COMEX gold futures and related ETFs [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - COMEX gold futures opened lower and are currently trading around $4028 per ounce, reflecting a downward trend [1] - Gold ETF 华夏 (518850) has seen a net inflow of 686 million yuan over the past 13 trading days, despite a 0.74% drop today [1] - Other related ETFs, such as 黄金股 ETF (159562) and 有色金属 ETF 基金 (516650), have also experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.56% respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - There is increasing disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate decisions, with at least three officials expected to oppose maintaining the current rates in the upcoming December meeting [1] - If the Federal Reserve were to cut rates by 25 basis points, the opposition could also reach at least three votes [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Longcheng Futures indicates that the recent pullback in gold prices follows a period of strong performance, driven by signals of a weak U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve easing [1] - Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, contributing to the recent decline in gold prices [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, while medium to long-term support remains from risks of economic recession, fiscal expansion, and weakening dollar credibility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials are facing a challenge in resolving their differences regarding interest rates, with two distinct factions emerging within the organization [1] Group 1: Internal Divisions - One faction is increasingly concerned about inflation, comprising four regional Fed presidents with voting rights this year and Fed Governor Barr [1] - The opposing faction is more focused on the labor market, including all three Fed governors appointed by Trump, who worry that their colleagues may overemphasize the risks of persistent high inflation, potentially leading to unnecessary economic recession [1] Group 2: Upcoming Meetings - It is anticipated that at least three officials will hold differing opinions in the December meeting, with the three Trump-appointed officials likely to oppose maintaining interest rates [1] - If the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates by 25 basis points, the dissenting votes could also reach at least three [1]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are in a high - level correction and oscillating to accumulate strength due to factors such as the decline in Sino - US manufacturing PMI, the US government shutdown leading to tight market liquidity, and the strengthening of the US dollar index. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals, given the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming green copper demand [6]. - Long - term, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with the US Treasury yield. In 2025, the gold - copper ratio has been rising, and copper still has room for a catch - up increase compared to gold [20]. Group 3: Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The short - term copper price is under pressure due to macro factors, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. Short - term, it is advisable to try long positions on dips, and long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should consider adding option protection, reducing positions, and strictly controlling risks [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The US government shutdown has led to a dollar shortage, with the US dollar index breaking through the 100 mark this week, suppressing copper prices. The US 10 - month ADP employment increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but the overall employment situation still has uncertainties. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is 70.6% [14]. - Sino - US manufacturing PMI has declined month - on - month. China's September manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7. There are concerns about economic recession risks [17]. - There are uncertainties about the legality of Trump's tariffs. If the US Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the US government may face a refund of about $140 billion in taxes, which will impact the federal finance [17]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - In 2025, the production of global mainstream copper mines is expected to be revised down to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 401,300 tons compared to 2024, a 3.18% decrease, intensifying concerns about the global copper shortage [43]. - In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the contraction is expected to continue in Q4. The import of copper concentrate in China decreased in September, and the port inventory is lower than the historical average. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted [49]. - The supply of scrap copper in the market is tight. The import window for scrap copper is closed, and the domestic supply is short. The refined - scrap price difference has decreased [56]. - In 2025, the global refined copper production shows a structural differentiation. China contributes most of the global increment, while overseas production in most countries has declined to varying degrees [59]. Demand - In September, the output and operating rate of copper products increased. The operating rate of mid - downstream processing enterprises also rebounded slightly. The terminal demand for electricity and new energy vehicles shows resilience, while the performance of the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [74][78]. - The global demand for green copper is booming. The copper - electricity - RMB internationalization path is expected to be opened up [84]. 4. Summary and Outlook - Macroscopically, the US manufacturing PMI has declined, the US government shutdown continues, the US dollar index has returned above 100, and market liquidity is tight, causing commodities to retreat from high levels. The Fed's December interest - rate cut probability is uncertain [101]. - Fundamentally, the output of global major copper mines is expected to continue to contract in Q4. The copper smelting industry at home and abroad is anti - involution. The output of electrolytic copper in China decreased in October and is expected to decline in November. The inventory situation is complex, with LME copper inventory decreasing and COMEX copper inventory increasing but difficult to flow back. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased after the copper price decline, and the terminal demand for electricity and new energy vehicles remains resilient [102]. - Short - term, copper prices are recommended to try long positions on dips. Long - term, strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. The short - term focus range for SHFE copper is [84,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton [103][104].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the future adjustments of interest rates following two consecutive rate cuts, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others express concerns about rapid policy easing [2]. Group 1: Milan's Easing Stance and Rationale - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has repeatedly voiced concerns about the current monetary policy being too tight, opposing the decision to cut rates by only 25 basis points in September and October, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Milan believes that the current policy rate is significantly above the neutral level, which may excessively restrict economic activity [3]. - He expresses confidence in the decline of inflation, suggesting that there is no need to maintain high interest rates [4]. - Milan highlights signs of stress in the credit market, indicating that monetary policy may negatively impact the corporate financing environment [4]. - He warns that maintaining a restrictive policy for too long could increase the risk of an economic recession [4]. Group 2: Cautious Attitudes of Other Officials - In contrast to Milan's aggressive stance, several policymakers, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, adopt a more cautious approach, emphasizing concerns about inflation over labor market issues [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggests keeping an open mind regarding a rate cut in December, stressing the need to balance inflation control with employment support [5]. - This divergence reflects differences in interpreting economic data, with summer hiring slowdowns raising concerns about the labor market [5][6]. - There remains uncertainty about whether inflation will continue to decline [6]. Group 3: Policy Background and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in October, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's decision [7]. - Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, indicating that decisions will depend on subsequent economic data [7]. - Milan's transition from the White House to the Federal Reserve has led to discussions about potential political influences on his policy proposals, although he consistently argues from an economic fundamentals perspective, citing objective indicators like "credit market pressure" [7].

Group 1 - International gold prices continue to face downward pressure, with New York gold futures falling below $4000 per ounce [1] - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures are at 3966.40 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.04% [1] - Market analysts suggest that despite long-term optimism for the gold market, short-term price declines may occur [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a procedural vote to advance the government funding bill, resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has significantly impacted consumer confidence, with the U.S. consumer confidence index dropping from a revised 95.6 in September to 94.6 in October [3] - The consumer expectations index fell to 71.5, indicating increased market concerns about future economic conditions [3] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, December gold futures still hold short-term technical advantages, although they have weakened significantly [4] - The next upward price target for bulls is to close above the solid resistance level of $4200, while bears aim to push prices below the solid support level of $3900 [4] - Key resistance levels are at $4100 and the overnight high of $4123.80, with support at $4000 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in oil prices reflect underlying economic signals, with significant price drops indicating potential demand issues and economic concerns [3][4]. Oil Price Trends - Oil prices have experienced volatility since the beginning of the year, with notable fluctuations in April, May, June, and a significant drop in October, culminating in a historic "six consecutive declines" [3]. - As of October 22, 2025, domestic oil prices saw a decrease of nearly 350 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, with further expected reductions of approximately 340 yuan per ton due to international price trends [3][4]. International Oil Prices - WTI crude oil prices have fallen to $56.73 per barrel, while Brent crude is at $60.83, nearing the year's lowest points [4]. - Analysts suggest that a rebound above $58 could lead to prices reaching $60 or even $63, but current global economic recovery is slow, and oil demand remains weak [4]. Domestic Oil Pricing - The national average price for 92-octane gasoline is around 7.05 yuan per liter, with regional variations, such as higher prices in Yunnan and Guizhou at 7.20 yuan per liter [5]. - The price for 95-octane gasoline averages 7.55 yuan per liter, with significant price differences across regions, indicating a "high-octane premium" that affects consumer spending [5]. Economic Implications - While falling oil prices may benefit consumers in the short term, they often signal insufficient market demand and potential economic recession risks [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a possible rebound in oil prices, but the unpredictable nature of the market complicates accurate future predictions [5].

Core Insights - The October consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined for the third consecutive month, reflecting growing public concern over the economic outlook amid government shutdown, high inflation expectations, and slowing job growth [1][2] - The current index is significantly lower than levels seen in early 2025 and before the return of former President Trump, nearing lows observed during the inflation peak in 2021 [1] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year have slightly decreased from 4.7% in September to 4.6%, still above the current actual inflation rate of 2.9% [1] Economic Context - Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, making changes in consumer confidence a significant indicator of overall economic trends [2] - Historical data shows that government shutdowns, while having limited direct economic impact, often lead to significant declines in consumer confidence [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has entered its 10th day, causing key economic indicators to be suspended, making the Michigan survey a crucial alternative for gauging economic direction [1][2] Political and Monetary Policy Implications - The U.S. economy is currently in a sensitive phase with slowing hiring rates, uncontrolled inflation, and rising recession risks [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that policymakers are attempting to guide the economy through a "challenging situation" during this turbulent period [2] - Analysts warn that if the government shutdown continues and consumer confidence weakens further, it may suppress household spending willingness, posing downward pressure on economic growth [2]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Implications - The current government shutdown appears to be more prolonged due to a lack of communication between the parties involved, differing from historical instances where resolutions were typically reached quickly [2][3] - The president's potential aim to reduce the size of government could have a more significant impact on GDP than usual, as past shutdowns often resulted in backpay that mitigated economic effects [3][5] - The upcoming military payday on October 15th is a critical date, as both parties may want to avoid being blamed for not paying troops, which could prompt negotiations [4] Group 2: Economic and Credit Rating Concerns - The risk of a recession stemming from the shutdown is considered minor, as shutdowns are generally short-lived and spending delays are usually compensated later [5][6] - Credit rating agencies have already downgraded U.S. debt, citing shutdowns and political dysfunction, which raises concerns about U.S. fiscal governance [6][7] - Persistent dysfunction in Washington may lead rating agencies to question whether the U.S. can effectively utilize its resources to maintain credit ratings [7][8] Group 3: Fiscal Sustainability - The U.S. is currently on an unsustainable fiscal path, with uncertainty about what will trigger a necessary change, but a significant adjustment is anticipated when it occurs [8][9]