铝周报—炒作退烧需求不足，沪铝后市震荡偏弱 周五中国 7 月经济数据不及预期，美国公布对等关税全部税率，美国非农就 业数据不及预期，且大幅下修前两月数据，美国经济衰退风险和降息预期同步上 升。夜间美元暴跌人民币大涨，市场走弱。今日中国汽车等机械行业数据乐观， 市场情绪好转，日内市场整体小幅走强，有色金属多数上涨。沪铝上涨，伦铝上 涨，国内现货价铝下跌。 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报 20525，现货报 20480，现货贴水-45 点。上周 沪铝大跌，本周现货转为贴水-40 元，现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存 上升，氧化铝社会库存下降。上期所铝库存上升，现货消费不佳。LME 现货库存 本周上升，LME 现货转为贴水-3 美元。人民币汇率本周小幅上涨，铝价沪伦比本 周大幅上升至 8.06，外盘走势弱于内盘。 技术上看，今日原油小幅上涨，伦铝小幅上涨，在 2577 美元附近运行。沪 铝今日低开高走小幅上涨，收于 20525，技术形态略有好转。沪铝成交持仓均下 降，市场情绪偏向谨慎。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，现货成交不佳。反内卷 炒作明显退烧，氧化铝大跌，沪铝跟随下跌，本轮炒作可能就此结束。目前淡季， 现货需求不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - Overnight, the annual rate of the US core PCE in June rebounded to 2.8%, slightly higher than expected, and the monthly rate of 0.3% met expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims remained at a low level of 218,000. With recent geopolitical risks stable, tariff negotiations becoming clearer, and the risk of economic recession decreasing, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the volatile adjustment may continue. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on data, and attention is focused on the US non - farm payrolls guidance tonight [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Tariff News - US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday night to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners, raising the tariff level to the highest in more than a century. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7 instead of August 1, providing a window for countries to negotiate for lower tariffs. The White House hopes to reach more agreements with countries before August 7 [2] - The US Treasury Secretary is frustrated with India. The tariff rate for Malaysian goods will be announced soon. India hopes to sign free - trade agreements with several countries. The US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, and Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs. Trump excluded 45% of Brazil's exports to the US from the 50% tariff [2] Gold Demand Report - In the second quarter of 2025, the total global gold demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,249 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In value terms, the total global gold demand soared by 45% year - on - year to a new record of $132 billion. Gold ETF investment was the key driver, with an inflow of 170 tons in Q2, compared with a small outflow in Q2 2024. The total global gold ETF demand in the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - The total investment in gold bars and coins in Q2 also increased by 11% year - on - year to 307 tons. Chinese investors led the world, with a 44% year - on - year surge in demand for gold bars and coins to 115 tons. Indian investors continued to increase their holdings, with a demand of 46 tons in Q2. The Western market showed a differentiated trend: the net investment demand in Europe more than doubled to 28 tons in Q2, while the demand for gold bars and coins in the US halved to 9 tons [2] - Global central banks continued to buy gold, but the pace slowed down. They added 166 tons in Q2 2025. Despite the slowdown in the purchase growth rate, global central bank gold purchases remained at a significantly high level. 95% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months [2] - Gold jewelry demand continued to shrink, with consumption volume decreasing by 14% year - on - year in Q2, approaching the low level during the 2020 pandemic. The demand for gold jewelry in China and India decreased by 20% and 17% year - on - year respectively. However, in value terms, global gold jewelry consumption still rose to $3.6 billion in Q2 [2]

Group 1 - The current trade policy has become more predictable, allowing the market to significantly lower the pricing of recession risks, which has eased investment sentiment [1][2] - As of Thursday, the global investment-grade corporate bond yield spread has narrowed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, just before the global financial crisis [2][4] - Despite the improved market sentiment and the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high, the Federal Reserve has not signaled an imminent rate cut, indicating that more data is needed to ensure inflation risks do not persist [3][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that market participants should not overlook potential risk factors due to current optimism, including the possibility of economic growth falling below expectations and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5] - The narrowing of credit spreads and the overall market optimism may mask underlying risks, prompting Goldman Sachs to advise clients to maintain certain hedging positions in their portfolios [3][4] - Although negative news related to tariffs is no longer the main driver of risk sentiment, the impact of tariffs on different segments of the supply chain will lead to performance differentiation among companies, becoming a new source of market risk [5]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs credit strategists urge clients to hedge risks as global corporate bond yield spreads have tightened to the lowest level since 2007 [1] - Recent trade agreements between the US and several trading partners provide clarity on tariff issues, leading investors to overlook short-term economic growth weakness as long as recession risks are controlled [1] - Bloomberg index indicates that global investment-grade bond yield spreads narrowed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, prior to the global financial crisis [1] Economic Context - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high this week, reflecting investor confidence despite tightening credit spreads [1] - Federal Reserve policymakers have not indicated an imminent rate cut, suggesting that more data is needed to ensure inflation risks do not persist [1]

Oil Market - International oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude for September increasing by 0.98% [1] - The U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels, but the market remains focused on the renewed risks of sanctions on oil [1] - The geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia are expected to support oil prices in the short term, and investors are advised to consider the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [1] Precious Metals - The U.S. reported a rebound in Q2 GDP at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding expectations, while ADP employment increased by 104,000, also above expectations [2] - Following the data release, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to continue adjusting in a volatile manner due to reduced risk aversion and clearer tariff negotiations [2] Copper - Copper prices fell sharply, with a near 20% drop in short-term prices, as the U.S. imposed tariffs on copper products, impacting market sentiment [3] - The COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, and the market is closely watching the implementation of the U.S. tariff agreements [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, a stronger dollar is suppressing copper prices, with adjustments expected towards the 60-day moving average [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, with seasonal demand showing signs of decline and inventory levels increasing [4] - The market is experiencing a drop in aluminum alloy profits, with short-term price pressures expected despite some resilience in the medium term [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high but experienced significant fluctuations, with total market inventory continuing to rise [10] - Traders are optimistic, with spot market activity increasing, and Australian mine prices reported at $845, indicating a rebound from low levels [10] Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing a downward trend, with rebar demand showing slight recovery but overall investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down [13] - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with global shipments exceeding last year's levels, but domestic port arrivals are weak, leading to a potential slight reduction in inventory [14] Agricultural Products - U.S. soybean quality ratings are at 70%, higher than expected, indicating a potential for early harvest expectations [35] - Corn futures are fluctuating, with U.S. corn quality ratings at 73%, suggesting a stable growth trend [39] - The domestic demand for urea is weak, with production increasing but overall demand remaining low [23] Financial Markets - The A-share market showed increased volatility, with major indices experiencing mixed movements, and the market sentiment remains relatively positive [47] - The bond market is expected to enter a repair phase, with the yield curve likely to steepen due to increased fiscal measures [48]

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to announce his resignation by the end of August following the ruling coalition's defeat in the recent Upper House elections [1] - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito lost its majority in the Upper House, leading to a significant drop in Ishiba's cabinet approval ratings [1] - Calls for Ishiba's resignation have emerged within the LDP after the election results, indicating internal party pressure [1] Group 2 - The final vote count revealed that the ruling coalition lost more than half of its seats in the Upper House [2] - The unexpected rise of the yen is overshadowed by ongoing economic recession risks in Japan [2] - U.S. President Trump announced trade agreements between the U.S. and Japan, as well as between the U.S. and the Philippines, which caused fluctuations in the yen's value [2]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, copper production increased by 2% year-on-year to 516,200 tons, with a full-year production forecast of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase compared to the previous year [2][11] - Nickel production in Q2 2025 saw a significant decline of 99% year-on-year, totaling 300 tons, due to temporary shutdowns [3][12] - Iron ore production reached 70.3 million tons in Q2 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year, with a full-year forecast of 263 million tons, reflecting a 1% increase [4][13] - Coking coal production increased by 5% year-on-year to 10.3 million tons in Q2 2025, while full-year production is expected to decrease by 19% to 36 million tons [5][14] - Thermal coal production rose by 8% year-on-year to 4.1 million tons in Q2 2025, with a full-year forecast of 15 million tons, a 2% decrease [6][15] Summary by Sections Copper - Q2 2025 copper production was 516,200 tons, up 2% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Average realized price for copper was $4.43 per pound, down 3% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [19] Nickel - Q2 2025 nickel production was 300 tons, down 99% year-on-year and 87% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Full-year nickel production forecast is 30,200 tons, a 63% decrease compared to the previous year [12] Iron Ore - Q2 2025 iron ore production was 70.3 million tons, up 2% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Average realized price for iron ore was $79.93 per wet ton, down 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [19] Coking Coal - Q2 2025 coking coal production was 10.3 million tons, up 5% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Average realized price for coking coal was $177.32 per ton, down 28% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter [19] Thermal Coal - Q2 2025 thermal coal production was 4.1 million tons, up 8% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [6] - Average realized price for thermal coal was $85.70 per ton, down 31% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [19] Major Projects - The Jansen project is progressing, with 68% completion of the JS1 project, and capital expenditure expected to rise to between $7 billion and $7.4 billion [16]

Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Impact - Trump revealed that the U.S. generated $25 billion in revenue from tariffs in June, primarily from the automotive, steel, aluminum, and some wood sectors [1] - The second round of tariffs initiated by Trump is expected to bring in more revenue after July 7 [1] - Trump has imposed tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on 24 countries and the EU, which is significantly higher than the previously proposed "reciprocal tariff" policy [3] Group 2: International Reactions and Negotiations - Brazil has initiated a three-step response to the 50% tariff, including negotiation and potential countermeasures, while the EU is prepared to impose additional tariffs on $72 billion worth of U.S. goods if no agreement is reached [3] - Japan and Mexico are also looking to negotiate further with the U.S. regarding tariffs [3] - The U.S. has reached a tariff agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on U.S. exports while Indonesia maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods [5] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The UN warns that Trump's tariff policy has caused significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to increased costs and supply interruptions, with a projected global economic growth rate drop from 2.8% to 2.3% [9] - Financial CEOs express concerns that the tariff policy may lead to rising inflation and further economic deterioration, despite recent profits exceeding expectations for major banks [11] - U.S. companies, particularly in the chemical, plastic, and alcohol sectors, face challenges from foreign retaliatory measures, with U.S. whiskey exports to the EU dropping by 20% from 2018 to 2021 due to tariffs [12] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates until there is more clarity on inflation trends, with several officials indicating no urgency to lower rates [18] - The tariffs are expected to exert upward pressure on consumer prices, complicating the Fed's monetary policy decisions [18] - The overall economic uncertainty stemming from the tariff policies is influencing the Fed's approach to interest rates, with a cautious stance being adopted [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite fluctuating tariff-related news, the current trade developments align with expectations, with a projected 30% tariff on China and 10% on other regions, maintaining an effective tariff level around 12% [1] - Economic uncertainty persists, but some downward risks have been controlled earlier, leading to a reduced risk of recession by 2025 [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the stock market, particularly focusing on the financial sectors in the US and Europe [1] Group 2 - The company holds a neutral stance on government bonds globally, noting that while yields have risen and valuations improved, concerns remain due to rising US debt levels and ongoing inflation risks [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing will be less than currently reflected in the market [1] - The company continues to favor gold for portfolio diversification and holds a bearish view on the US dollar, favoring the euro and emerging market local currency bonds [1] Group 3 - Global crude oil supply is increasing, which may lead to an oversupply in the market and put pressure on oil prices in 2025, prompting a neutral stance from the company [2] - The company emphasizes the need to monitor potential risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply [2] - Overall, the company believes that the risks of cyclical economic downturns are largely controlled, while the sustainability of debt levels remains a key concern [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in market optimism, driven by a broad-based buying spree across various asset classes, despite underlying economic uncertainties and risks [1][4][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high for the first time since February, reflecting a strong recovery in investor sentiment [2][9]. - The index surged by 3.4% in the week, with major tech stocks (referred to as Mag7) leading the price movements [9]. - Junk bonds have risen for the fifth consecutive week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by approximately 10 basis points [12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite rising unemployment claims and a sluggish real estate market, bullish investors are focusing on signs of cooling inflation and improving consumer confidence [4][21]. - June consumer confidence in the U.S. reached a four-month high, although other economic data painted a less optimistic picture, including a significant drop in new home sales and consumer spending [21][23]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a notable return of retail investors and an increase in risk exposure among systematic investors, indicating a shift towards riskier assets [8]. - Market participants appear to be pricing in optimistic outcomes despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns [6][18]. Group 4: Cautionary Signals - Some market analysts express concerns about the sustainability of the current rally, citing potential risks if profit margins or employment data worsen [25][27]. - The options market is pricing in significant downside risks for popular funds, suggesting a cautious outlook among investors despite the recent market gains [27]. Group 5: Valuation Concerns - Some investment strategists, like Brent Schutte, are wary of the high valuations in the S&P 500 and prefer cheaper small and mid-cap stocks, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy [28].