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市场节奏观察指标
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读研报 | 那些被建议用于观察市场节奏的指标
中泰证券资管· 2025-09-02 11:33
Core Viewpoints - Investors are currently experiencing a mixed sentiment, fearing both stagnant and rapidly rising markets, indicating a desire for better market rhythm control [2] - The reports suggest that different market conditions require different indicators for tracking market trends, with a focus on turnover rate and securitization rate as key metrics [4][5] Group 1: Market Indicators - The turnover rate (total trading volume / total market capitalization) is highlighted as a stable indicator for gauging bull market rhythms, with historical peaks around 10% [2] - High turnover rates often precede market corrections or consolidations, and recent data shows that the 5-day average turnover rate is approaching previous high points, suggesting potential increased volatility [2] Group 2: Securitization Rate - The securitization rate (total market capitalization / GDP) is proposed as a useful tool for identifying valuation peaks in bull markets, particularly when liquidity and valuation expansion drive market movements [4] - Historical data indicates that significant bull markets are often characterized by rising securitization rates, with current rates in China at 0.83, suggesting room for growth before reaching critical valuation thresholds [4] Group 3: Ten Observational Indicators - A set of ten indicators is recommended for market observation, including market capitalization to GDP ratio, trading volume and turnover rate, and margin financing scale [5] - Among these, the market capitalization to GDP ratio and market capitalization to household deposits ratio are seen as having potential for upward movement, while trading volume and turnover rate also show upward potential but with high congestion levels [5]