面对上证指数首次出现的连续14日阳线历史性走势，一位金融学者在讲台上画出了一个大国金融崛起的路径图。 当上证指数在2026年初创下连续14日阳线的历史记录时，刘纪鹏教授站在中国政法大学的讲台上，提出一个关于中国资本市场未来的关键建议。 他直言不讳："必须把资本金融的短板补上去。" 这位长期关注中国资本市场发展的教授给出的具体方案是：将中国的证券化率从当前水平提高至1左右。届时，中国股市总市值将从现在的112万亿元提升到 约140万亿元，上证指数有望站上5100点。 01 历史时刻 2026年1月8日，中国资本市场迎来历史性时刻。上证指数自1990年12月19日开盘以来，第一次出现连续14日阳线的走势，创下了10年多以来的新高。 在刘纪鹏看来，这不是偶然的市场波动，而是中国资本市场深化改革、迈向高质量发展的必然体现。 他指出，中国要实现大国崛起，必须依赖两条腿走路：一条是高科技代表的产业链，另一条是资本金融代表的价值链。 刘纪鹏曾在多个场合强调，振兴股市让老百姓享受改革成果，是金融强国的不二选择。他回顾了过去500年世界史，强调大国的崛起伴随着世界金融中心的 转移。 02 核心概念 证券化率是衡量一国或地区证券 ...

1月8日，中国政法大学商学院教授刘纪鹏表示，我们共同见证了一个历史时刻，上证指数从1990年12月 19日开盘以来，在8558个交易日中，第一次出现连续14日阳线的走势，指数也创出了10年多以来的新 高。这不是偶然的市场波动，而是中国资本市场深化改革、迈向高质量发展的必然体现，更是在大国崛 起的进程中，资本金融与实体经济协同发力的信号。 他提出，下一步，真诚地希望能够继续严格规范大股东减持、加大中小投资者保护力度、严格限制量化 交易、注重公平的市场环境。他直言，没有投资者信心的重塑，再充裕的流动性也只能催生短期的泡 沫。 他认为，大国崛起必须靠两条腿走路，一条是高科技代表的产业链，另一条是资本金融代表的价值链。 中国要实现大国崛起就必须把资本金融的短板补上去。在近时期，先把证券化率提高到与大国地位匹配 的1的水平左右，也就是股票市值要从今天的112万亿提升到140万亿。到那时，股市不仅能站上5100 点，更能成为支撑科技创新、增加居民财产性收入的重要平台。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 ...

——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 修复进程的放缓并不等于未进行有效修复 周内市场一度出现较大幅回撤，我们于 11 月 21 号提出"调整暂告一段落可以 适当积极"的观点真的错了吗？我们认为修复节奏以及指数的放缓并不代表赚 钱效应没有积极改善。近期年内强势品类如 AI 硬件（通信 NV 链条）一度再创新 高、军工等调整时间维度较长的超跌成长在酝酿新机会，创业板指也回到强势运 行范围，因此市场的赚钱效应其实是在真实修复的。但由于海内外扰动仍然存在， 市场的合力并不足，因此修复进程也如我们此前提示的并非一蹴而就的过程。当 前市场呈现出"高景气赛道强于中小盘、中小盘强于上证指数、上证指数又显著 强于港股"的特征，体现出（1）海外流动性的扰动仍存，港股的拖累更明显； （2）比起快速拉升指数的修复，先通过弹性品类稳住赚钱效应的思路仍在。 近期市场调整的几大因素影响都在减弱 2025 年 12 月 21 日 策略研究团队 牛市眼光看后市，震荡思 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons behind the seasonal market rally known as "spring excitement," emphasizing its historical significance and the factors contributing to its occurrence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Significance of Spring Rally - The spring rally serves as a market response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [1][8]. - It provides a favorable opportunity for institutions to adjust their portfolios, especially after year-end assessment pressures ease [1][8]. - The rally reflects seasonal liquidity improvements, driven by capital inflows around the Spring Festival and heightened policy expectations [1][8]. Group 2: Core Causes of Spring Rally - The three main causes of the spring rally include: 1. Concentrated release of policy expectations [1][8]. 2. Seasonal changes in liquidity, including a narrowing M1-M2 gap and strong credit issuance at the beginning of the year [1][8]. 3. An earnings vacuum period that allows institutions to adjust their holdings [1][8]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Rally Intensity - Historical analysis indicates that a strong spring rally typically requires one or a combination of the following conditions: 1. Short-term macroeconomic data (e.g., PMI, social financing, industrial value-added) significantly exceeding expectations, signaling economic stabilization or recovery [2][8]. 2. Overall corporate profitability entering an upward trajectory, with positive annual and quarterly earnings forecasts, free from major external disruptions [2][8]. 3. Clearly accommodative monetary policy, characterized by rising M1 growth, declining short-term interest rates, and enhanced credit pulses, providing ample liquidity support for high-elasticity assets [2][8]. Group 4: Changes in Funding Ecology - The current market sees two significant changes in funding ecology that may contribute to a stable increase in China's securitization rate: 1. The weakening of real estate investment attributes, with the equity market becoming a new primary venue for household assets [2][9]. 2. Indirect movement of household funds into the market, resulting in a continuous and stable influx of new capital [2][9]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting: 1. The dual driving forces of technology and cyclical opportunities, with cyclical prospects becoming more prominent amid anti-involution trends [4][11]. 2. Continued long-term advantages for technology sectors [4][11]. 3. Identification of opportunities in recently undervalued growth sectors such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment [4][11]. Group 6: Sector Allocation Recommendations - Recommendations for sector allocation include: 1. Internal recovery and high-low cuts within technology: military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, and core AI hardware [5][12]. 2. Benefits from PPI improvement and broad anti-involution: solar energy, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and machinery [5][12]. 3. Long-term core holdings: stable dividends, gold, and optimized high-dividend stocks [5][12].

Group 1: Commonality of Spring Rally - The spring rally signifies the market's early response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [12][13] - The three core drivers of the spring rally include concentrated policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and the performance vacuum during the earnings reporting period [16][20] - Strong spring rallies typically occur when macroeconomic data significantly exceeds expectations, overall corporate earnings enter an upward trajectory, and monetary policy is notably accommodative [21][20] Group 2: Changes in Funding Ecology Behind the Index Bull Market - The weakening of real estate investment attributes has led to the equity market becoming the new main stage for residents' assets, with a structural migration of funds from real estate to stocks and funds [23][24] - Residents' funds are indirectly entering the market, bringing stable incremental capital, with a shift from high-yield financial products to new categories such as fixed income+, secondary bond funds, and higher-risk bank wealth management products [25][26] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Technology and Cyclical Sectors - The market correction is seen as a temporary pause, with an emphasis on early positioning for the spring rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors as dual drivers [29][30] - Specific sectors showing potential include military industry, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment, with core technology blue chips expected to recover [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing increased volatility, but it remains in a medium to long-term upward trend, with a focus on technology growth as the dominant theme [1][2]. Market Conditions - The A-share market has seen heightened fluctuations since early September, but it is believed to be in a clear medium to long-term upward trend, suggesting investors should not overly focus on short-term volatility [2]. - The driving forces behind the current market rally are identified as top-level design support for the capital market, increased liquidity from ETF inflows, and sustained positive catalysts from technological innovations such as AI [2]. Market Valuation - The current securities ratio (market capitalization to GDP) is approximately 0.86 to 0.87, indicating significant potential for market capitalization growth, as historical data shows that securities ratios above 1 often lead to higher market valuations [2]. Sector Analysis - There is ongoing discussion about whether the market will shift from high-growth technology sectors to lower-performing cyclical sectors; however, the conditions for such a shift are not yet present [3]. - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors are expected to maintain profitability advantages starting in 2025, supported by strong demand for AI computing power and a dual resonance in the semiconductor cycle driven by both consumer and corporate demand [3]. Investment Opportunities - The ChiNext index is currently viewed as the most cost-effective growth index in the market, with a diverse weight distribution across AI hardware, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [4]. - The Hong Kong market has faced challenges but is now entering an environment of incremental capital, with a focus on growth-oriented investments, particularly in AI hardware and applications [5]. Investment Strategy - In the current market, selecting sectors may be more critical than picking individual stocks, with a dual focus on technology growth stocks and sectors benefiting from PPI recovery [6]. - Recommendations include focusing on sectors with strong policy certainty such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and real estate for valuation recovery, while also considering consumer sectors with improving profitability [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is expected to experience significant growth, with the total market value of A-shares projected to reach 400 trillion yuan by 2040, quadrupling from the current level, driven by economic fundamentals and institutional reforms [6][10]. Group 1: Securities Market Development - The concept of "securitization rate" is crucial for understanding the growth potential of the capital market, with China's current rate at approximately 70%, indicating substantial room for growth compared to the mature market standard of 100%-120% [8][10]. - The A-share market has seen a notable increase in total market value, growing by 36 trillion yuan over the past year, with the number of companies valued at over 100 billion yuan rising from 114 to 169 [14][30]. Group 2: Economic and Institutional Support - The prediction of reaching 400 trillion yuan is based on expected GDP growth from approximately 140 trillion yuan to around 280 trillion yuan by 2040, with a potential increase in the securitization rate to match mature markets [10][12]. - Historical precedents, such as the U.S. stock market's growth over the past two decades, support the feasibility of this projection, with a similar annual growth rate anticipated for China [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Direction and Opportunities - Venture capital and private equity play a vital role in capital market development, with current industry funds totaling nearly 30 trillion yuan, of which 40% is still directed towards fixed income rather than equity markets [18][29]. - The focus on early-stage investments in hard technology is encouraged by recent government policies, aiming to align investment strategies with long-term growth potential [20][29]. Group 4: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is identified as a key growth area, with significant potential for GDP contribution and market capitalization increase, as evidenced by its rapid growth compared to overall GDP growth [22][30]. - The U.S. experience shows that productive service industries have become a major component of GDP, indicating a similar trajectory for China, where this sector is expected to drive innovation and high-value enterprise development [22][30]. Group 5: Future Unicorns and Investment Focus - Five categories of enterprises within the productive service industry are highlighted as future unicorns, particularly specialized small and medium-sized enterprises that contribute to innovation and market growth [25][27]. - The integration of manufacturing with productive services through digital platforms is seen as a transformative approach, with leading companies in this space expected to drive significant market value growth [27][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the recent tariff discussions and geopolitical tensions will not abruptly halt the ongoing bull market in Chinese assets, as evidenced by past market reactions to similar events [3][4]. - The report highlights that the recent drop in indices following Trump's tariff comments is seen as a potential buying opportunity, similar to the market's recovery after the April 2025 tariff announcement [3][4]. - The report suggests that the market still has room for valuation increases until the securitization rate reaches 1, indicating that the total market value will match GDP [3]. Group 2 - The report advises against a blind switch in investment strategies, emphasizing that the current market conditions do not warrant a complete shift, with technology remaining a core focus [4]. - It notes that the recent market style switch reflects a rebalancing process, with technology, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors showing significant gains, indicating a more balanced market [4]. - The report cautions that discussions of a comprehensive switch in investment styles are premature, as current adjustments may be more defensive in nature [4]. Group 3 - The report continues to advocate for a dual focus on technology and PPI (Producer Price Index) as the optimal investment strategy, while also highlighting sectors like military and financial technology as potential amplifiers of risk appetite [5]. - It identifies key areas of focus including self-sufficiency, rare earths, and gold, which are deemed important in the current market context [5].

Core Viewpoint - The development of the productive service industry is crucial for GDP growth, the emergence of unicorns, and the increase in high-value-added equipment and terminal product value [1][3] Group 1: Capital Market Development - The securitization rate is a key indicator of capital market maturity, with a ratio of total market value to GDP ideally between 1:1 and 1:1.2. China's current ratio is approximately 70%, indicating significant growth potential [1] - By 2040, China's GDP is projected to reach around 350 trillion yuan, suggesting that the stock market's total market value could potentially quadruple to about 400 trillion yuan if it reaches 100% to 120% of GDP [1][2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Various funds, including venture capital, private equity, and industrial funds, play a vital role in capital market development, with a total of nearly 30 trillion yuan, of which 40% is currently invested in low-risk monetary and fixed-income securities [2] - The focus should be on early-stage investments in hard technology, starting from the 0-1 stage and progressing through various investment phases to support the growth of high-tech enterprises [2][3] Group 3: Importance of Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is a key driver of innovation and development in manufacturing, serving as the foundation for new productive forces and high-quality economic growth [3] - In modern economies, the value of productive services is embedded in hardware and terminal equipment, contributing significantly to the overall value of products, such as software and patents in a smartphone [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's asset revaluation has long-term rationality and feasibility, supported by capital market dynamics and economic transformation [3][26][28] - Insurance funds have increased their stock investments by 640 billion yuan, indicating confidence in economic transformation and emerging industries [13][15] - The central Huijin has increased its stock ETF holdings by nearly 23% compared to the previous year, signaling market confidence in the transformation process [15][20] Group 2 - The report highlights that China's current securities ratio is low compared to developed countries, but this presents an opportunity for growth as the economy transitions [5][9] - Emerging industries such as technology and renewable energy are rapidly developing, necessitating capital market financing rather than relying solely on bank loans [7][11] - The low valuation of major Chinese indices provides a safety net for long-term foreign investment, despite potential fluctuations in external factors like U.S. interest rates [20][22][24] Group 3 - The current market fluctuations are normal as the investment cycle begins, and the increase in retail investment indicates a shift towards the stock market [24][28] - The long-term trend of asset revaluation is driven by multiple factors, including economic transformation, low valuations, capital support, and global attractiveness [26][30] - The focus should be on the broader economic transformation rather than short-term market volatility, as real investment opportunities lie in aligning with long-term trends [30]