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国金证券:短期市场模糊期,亦可适当把握复苏前期行业轮动的路径
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 01:15
Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing accelerated sector rotation as it approaches a profit bottom, with recent trends reflecting this characteristic [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Historical experiences from 2016 and 2020 indicate that a "high cut low" strategy can yield excess returns in the early stages of recovery, but the effectiveness based on stock price levels is weaker than that based on valuations [1] - Investors are currently more focused on demand-side recovery and improvements in operational efficiency/profit quality, as indicated by the performance of ROA and revenue change factors, which outperform ROE and net profit [1] - The current market is unique in that the pricing power of institutional investors focusing on valuation and profit is weaker than in previous recovery periods, while the importance of individual investors has increased [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Two strategies are recommended for the current short-term rotation: 1. Focus on sectors with expected demand and asset profitability recovery that are undervalued 2. Identify stocks in sectors with relatively low stock prices, particularly those that attract higher attention from individual investors [1] - In the first strategy, sectors such as industrial metals, rail transit equipment, kitchen appliances, and white goods show improving profit margins while maintaining mid-to-low valuation levels [1] - For the second strategy, the consumer sector has a relatively high proportion of stocks at 250-day lows, while growth sectors with high individual investor interest include media, brokerage, and computer industries, which have a high concentration of stocks at 20-day lows [1]