Core Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a "volatile" and "divergent" trend in the international and domestic commodity markets, characterized by mixed performance across different sectors [1][3][8] International Market Overview - The international commodity market exhibited a "weak energy, strong precious metals, differentiated metals, and moderate agricultural products" landscape, driven by macroeconomic slowdown and geopolitical risks [1][2] - Brent crude oil prices fell to around $70 due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other countries, with the World Bank predicting a significant likelihood of declining energy prices in 2025 [1][2] - Gold prices reached record highs due to geopolitical tensions and high global debt, while copper prices rose over 10% due to supply disruptions and demand from the renewable energy sector [1][5] - The correlation between commodity futures and the US dollar index remained high, with limited softening of the dollar impacting market dynamics [1][5] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with the overall commodity index remaining stable by mid-year, despite significant fluctuations [3][4] - Energy and chemical sectors, along with black metals and the renewable energy supply chain, experienced downward price trends, influenced by increased coal production and reduced demand for thermal coal [4][5] - The demand for refined copper surged as major economies engaged in a "copper grabbing" trend, driven by a proactive inventory replenishment cycle [3][5] Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant price increases of 24.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while agricultural products showed mixed trends [5][6] - The black metal sector faced a "dual weakness" in supply and demand, with steel prices declining over 15% and iron ore showing stronger performance due to increased consumption [6][7] - The lithium and silicon markets faced oversupply issues, leading to price declines, while the overall market dynamics indicated a need for improved trading strategies and risk management [6][7] Outlook for the Second Half - The second half of 2025 is expected to continue the "volatile" trend, with potential shifts in trade policies and geopolitical situations impacting commodity prices [7][8] - Analysts predict that the oil market may oscillate between surplus and production cuts, while "green metals" like copper are expected to maintain structural bullish trends [7][8] - The market may face supply surplus conditions, with price adjustments providing potential trading opportunities, particularly in copper and iron ore [7][8]