Core Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a "volatile" and "divergent" trend in the international and domestic commodity markets, characterized by mixed performance across different sectors [1][3][8] International Market Overview - The international commodity market exhibited a "weak energy, strong precious metals, differentiated metals, and moderate agricultural products" landscape, driven by macroeconomic slowdown and geopolitical risks [1][2] - Brent crude oil prices fell to around $70 due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other countries, with the World Bank predicting a significant likelihood of declining energy prices in 2025 [1][2] - Gold prices reached record highs due to geopolitical tensions and high global debt, while copper prices rose over 10% due to supply disruptions and demand from the renewable energy sector [1][5] - The correlation between commodity futures and the US dollar index remained high, with limited softening of the dollar impacting market dynamics [1][5] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with the overall commodity index remaining stable by mid-year, despite significant fluctuations [3][4] - Energy and chemical sectors, along with black metals and the renewable energy supply chain, experienced downward price trends, influenced by increased coal production and reduced demand for thermal coal [4][5] - The demand for refined copper surged as major economies engaged in a "copper grabbing" trend, driven by a proactive inventory replenishment cycle [3][5] Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant price increases of 24.7% and 24.5%, respectively, while agricultural products showed mixed trends [5][6] - The black metal sector faced a "dual weakness" in supply and demand, with steel prices declining over 15% and iron ore showing stronger performance due to increased consumption [6][7] - The lithium and silicon markets faced oversupply issues, leading to price declines, while the overall market dynamics indicated a need for improved trading strategies and risk management [6][7] Outlook for the Second Half - The second half of 2025 is expected to continue the "volatile" trend, with potential shifts in trade policies and geopolitical situations impacting commodity prices [7][8] - Analysts predict that the oil market may oscillate between surplus and production cuts, while "green metals" like copper are expected to maintain structural bullish trends [7][8] - The market may face supply surplus conditions, with price adjustments providing potential trading opportunities, particularly in copper and iron ore [7][8]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the gains, closing at 3186.81, up by 1.31% [2][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw increases of 1.22% and 0.98% respectively, while the North Exchange 50 Index surged by over 10% [2][3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included defense and military, which rose by 6.27%, and retail, which increased by 5.18% [2][3] - Conversely, the banking and oil sectors lagged, with declines of -0.94% and -0.07% respectively [2][3] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.7 trillion, indicating active trading sentiment, with over 4500 stocks rising and nearly 300 hitting the daily limit [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently below the 5-day moving average but has recorded two consecutive days of gains, suggesting a potential upward correction [5] Policy and Institutional Support - Notable institutional support was observed, with entities like Central Huijin and China Chengtong announcing share buybacks, reinforcing their role as a stabilizing force in the market [4] - The People's Bank of China indicated readiness to provide sufficient re-lending support to Central Huijin if necessary, highlighting the government's commitment to maintaining market stability [4] Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite recent adjustments due to external factors like U.S. tariff policies, Chinese assets are now more attractive relative to global markets, showcasing good value [5] - The macroeconomic policy framework is characterized by a multi-layered and coordinated approach, which includes regulatory adjustments and active intervention from state-owned funds to support liquidity [5] - Recommended sectors for investment focus include finance, public utilities, consumer goods, non-ferrous metals, and technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) [5]