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【金工】新高需待量能积累——金融工程市场跟踪周报20250913(祁嫣然/陈颖/张威)
光大证券研究· 2025-09-14 00:05
Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend during the week of September 8-12, 2025, with trading volume initially suppressed but later recovering [4] - The weekly financing increase saw a significant rise compared to the previous period, while ETF funds continued to experience net outflows, indicating that leveraged funds remain in a positive buying state [4] - The market is shifting focus from broad-based indices to thematic indices, with active participation in thematic trading [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.10% during the same period [4] Valuation Analysis - As of September 12, 2025, major broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 are classified under the "danger" valuation category, while the CSI 1000 and ChiNext are in the "moderate" category [4] - In the CITIC primary industry classification, sectors like coal, steel, building materials, and power equipment are also in the "danger" valuation category, while food and beverage, agriculture, and transportation are in the "safe" category [5] Fund Flow and Institutional Interest - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were Jing Sheng Machinery, Xiamen Tungsten, Duofu Du, Xinji Energy, and Hanzhong Precision, with 237, 186, 167, 139, and 116 institutions respectively [7] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 60.822 billion HKD during the week, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 19.406 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect contributing 41.416 billion HKD [8] - The median return for stock ETFs was 1.93%, with a net outflow of 4.352 billion CNY, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was 3.09% with a net inflow of 21.168 billion CNY [8] Market Sentiment - The volume timing signals for major broad-based indices indicate a cautious outlook as of September 12, 2025 [6] - The degree of separation among fund clusters has slightly increased week-on-week, with excess returns for clustered stocks showing a minor rise while excess returns for clustered funds have slightly decreased [8]