Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The "Big and Beautiful Act" in the U.S. may exacerbate long-term debt risks, with national debt projected to rise to $36 trillion, potentially leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 134%-149% by 2035[3] - The probability of a U.S. economic recession is increasing, with defensive sectors outperforming cyclical sectors, showing a year-to-date increase of 10.7% in defensive sector valuations compared to cyclical sectors[4] - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, driven by a weaker dollar, which reduces the cost of holding emerging market assets and alleviates debt pressures[4] Group 2: Market Trends and Fund Manager Behavior - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to European stocks, with net overweight rising from 22% to 35%, the highest level since October 2017[5] - U.S. trade policy uncertainty is identified as a major risk for U.S. equities, with a close correlation between the Bloomberg U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the S&P 500 Index[5] - The implied volatility of USD/HKD risk reversal options has dropped to historically low levels, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment towards the HKD[6] Group 3: Valuation and Currency Movements - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Seven Giants" in U.S. stocks has decreased to a historical low of 46%, with a forward P/E of 31 compared to 21 for the S&P 500 excluding these giants[8] - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, becoming the weakest among major Asian currencies, as the Bank of Japan shifts from being a net buyer to a net seller of Japanese government bonds[8] - Following the U.S.-China tariff suspension agreement, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.17 mark, reaching a new high for the year, driven by weakened dollar credibility[9]