中金发布2026年展望称，从历史比较的角度看，本轮黄金牛市可能尚未结束。本轮黄金牛市的涨幅与持 续时间，仍低于上世纪70年代和2000年代两轮主要上涨周期。考虑到当前宏观不确定性、全球储备结构 调整的长期性以及美元周期的潜在下行，我们认为黄金牛市尚未进入尾声。除非美联储彻底结束宽松周 期、或美国经济重新进入"通胀下行+增长上行"的强复苏阶段，否则黄金的中期上涨逻辑仍将维持。若 当前趋势延续，不排除金价明年突破5,000美元/盎司的可能。尽管牛市逻辑明确，但黄金确实是当前估 值较贵的大类资产之一，可能增大资产波动，我们建议维持超配黄金，但减少追涨杀跌操作，采取逢低 增配与定投的投资策略，更关注黄金的长期资产配置价值。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the A-share market and its investment strategy outlook for 2026, highlighting a potential shift from growth to value investment styles around mid-2026 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Style Shift**: A significant transition from growth to value investment styles is anticipated around June 2026, with growth stocks currently favored until then [2][16]. - **Performance of Key Indices**: Since September 2024, major indices like the Sci-Tech 50, North Exchange 50, and ChiNext have seen gains exceeding 100%, driven by sectors such as TMT, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, benefiting from AI, new energy, and global demand growth [1][3]. - **Investment Focus**: Institutional investors are advised to focus on the rotation between growth and value styles rather than market capitalization. The current phase is characterized by a bull market in technology growth stocks [5][21]. - **Global and Domestic Factors**: The pricing of growth stocks is influenced by global interest rates and industry trends, while value stocks are more reliant on domestic pricing. Changes in the US dollar interest rates can significantly impact market dynamics [1][6][8]. - **Liquidity and Market Impact**: The flow of funds and liquidity conditions have a substantial effect on market performance. The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects how domestic investors react to foreign capital flows [9][10][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **"Deposit Migration" Explained**: This phenomenon indicates a shift in asset allocation from real estate to the stock market, closely tied to global capital movements rather than just domestic savings trends [10][11]. - **Historical Context**: Past market behaviors during periods of strong industry trends but weak liquidity (e.g., 2009-2010) and strong trends with ample liquidity (e.g., 2019-2021) illustrate the complex interplay between liquidity and market performance [13][14]. - **PPI and Market Dynamics**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) turning positive is crucial for the market's transition from growth to value styles. The timeline for this transition is projected based on historical patterns [20][21]. - **Sector Focus for 2026**: The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to drive significant trading activity in the first half of 2026, with potential adjustments in the second half [19][23]. Future Investment Strategy - **Key Investment Themes**: Emphasis on technology and safety, along with reform and growth, should guide investment decisions. Monitoring government reports and fiscal spending will be critical for identifying catalysts [24]. - **Market Outlook**: If no breakout applications emerge in the AI sector by mid-2026, a mid-term adjustment may occur, impacting stock prices significantly due to concentrated positions in AI-related stocks [18][24]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections regarding the A-share market and investment strategies leading into 2026, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and sector performance.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of commodity markets, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic factors such as the dollar cycle, global economic growth quality, and policy changes in major economies, while analyzing historical trends and their implications for future commodity pricing [4][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Context of Commodity Cycles - Different eras have distinct dominant factors influencing commodity prices, with a review structured around significant events and changes in the global landscape [7]. - The 1970s marked a unique period of stagflation, initiated by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, leading to a decoupling of the dollar from gold, resulting in a chaotic economic environment where commodity prices surged despite economic recession [11][12]. - The 1980s saw a recovery with the stabilization of the dollar and economic growth in the U.S., where commodity prices were positively correlated with GDP, particularly during the period of the Plaza Accord [15][16]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Commodity Prices - The relationship between commodity cycles and economic growth attributes is significant, with emerging economies and new growth drivers having a more substantial impact on commodity trends than inventory cycles [10]. - The early 2000s experienced a super bull market in commodities driven by China's industrialization and demand, with the CRB index rising from 200 to 480 before the financial crisis [21][23]. - Post-financial crisis, the period from 2008 to 2018 was characterized by China's stimulus measures, which temporarily boosted commodity prices, but ultimately led to overcapacity and a prolonged bear market [28][32]. Group 3: Current and Future Trends - The era of de-globalization, marked by U.S.-China tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, has reinforced the monetary attributes of commodities, leading to a recent bull market in the CRB index [35][38]. - The relationship between the CRB index and China's economic cycles has weakened, indicating a shift in the dynamics of commodity demand and pricing [39]. - The long-term price range of commodities is influenced by their monetary attributes and cyclical properties, with potential for the CRB index to rise to a new range of 500-700 due to ongoing monetary expansion [47].

宏 观 研 究 "流动性笔记"系列之五 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 13 日 美元的"十字路口" 世 界 经 济 相关研究 - 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈达飞 (8621)23297818× chendf@swsresearch.com ——"流动性笔记"系列之五 10 月 6 日以来，美元强势升值，9 日盘中一度升至 99.6 高位，为 8 月初以来的新高。美元能 否打破三季度以来的低位震荡格局、长期贬值预期能否继续演绎？ 一、热点思考：美元的"十字路口" （一）近期美元反弹的三个阶段和两方面原因 本轮美元反弹的时间起点是 9 月中旬美联储重启降息之后，整体 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the challenges faced by South Korean companies in the U.S., particularly in light of recent immigration enforcement actions that have raised questions about the sustainability of their investments and operations in America [1][10] - The historical context shows that South Korea has been significantly influenced by U.S. monetary policy, leading to cycles of capital inflow and outflow that have strained Korean enterprises [3][5] - The tightening of U.S. visa policies has created operational difficulties for Korean firms, with a high rejection rate for H-1B visas, complicating the transfer of skilled labor necessary for their U.S. operations [9][10] Group 2 - The economic relationship between the U.S. and South Korea is characterized by an imbalance in profit distribution, with reports indicating that 90% of investment profits are retained by the U.S. [12] - South Korean firms are experiencing a loss of innovation capacity and a shrinking space for industrial upgrades due to foreign control over management and ownership [12][14] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. policies are placing South Korea in a precarious position, leading to internal societal debates about the implications of being a "cash cow" for U.S. interests [14][16] Group 3 - The recent raid in Georgia highlights the systemic issues faced by Korean companies in the U.S., revealing the complexities of labor regulations and immigration policies that impact their operational capabilities [1][10] - The trend of South Korean companies relocating their operations to the U.S. is contributing to a hollowing out of domestic industries, resulting in fewer high-end jobs and reduced tax revenues in South Korea [7][12] - The future of U.S.-Korea relations remains uncertain, with potential scenarios that could further complicate South Korea's economic and security landscape amid shifting global supply chains [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is expected to break through the range, but there is a risk of a stage correction at the end of the year. The price of copper is predicted to gradually rise from 2022 - 2026, and the market in 4Q25 will seek an upward breakthrough in a volatile manner. [4] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the positive spread arbitrage of Shanghai copper in 4Q25 and remaining on the sidelines for the domestic - foreign spread. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to arrange medium - term long positions on dips. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Judgment and Strategy - The key factors affecting the copper market are the dollar cycle, tariff expectations, inventory cycle, and disturbance risks. In a structural market with increased volatility, the accumulation purchase strategy is more suitable for hedging. [2][3] - The long - term bullish logic includes the dollar credit cycle, supply - chain risks, resource bottlenecks, strong new demand momentum, and stable old demand. However, there are risks such as policy risks (tariff escalation), medium - long - term liquidity tightening expectations, and a significant decline in domestic demand. [4] US Tariff Impact - On August 1st, there was an unexpected change in the copper tariff policy, with raw materials including refined copper and anode copper getting a phased tariff exemption. There is no need to overly worry about the risk of copper inventory moving out of the US, and it is necessary to continue tracking the marginal change in the spread and the delivery situation of US LME inventory. This does not constitute a short - term strong negative factor but restricts the short - term upward elasticity of copper prices. [5] - The US refined copper inventory increased by more than 500,000 tons year - on - year from January to July (the risk of concentrated delivery on COMEX still exists). The necessary conditions for inventory to move out of the US are a negative spread between COMEX and LME and the spread being sufficient to cover transportation and capital costs. [5] Fed Politicization - In the short term, the trend of Fed politicization, combined with weak dollar and inflation - rising expectations, is positive for copper prices. In the medium - long term, the risk of severe inflation and subsequent inflation - control measures will be negative for copper prices. [6] Supply Side - Copper Mine - The production of major copper - producing countries shows different trends. For example, from 2020 - 2026F, Chile's production is expected to increase from 5.73 million tons to 5.7 million tons, while Australia's is expected to decrease from 850,000 tons to 750,000 tons. [9] - Geopolitical conflicts, unstable political situations, extreme weather, labor union movements, and complex environmental factors in copper - producing regions may lead to unexpected risks in copper supply. [13] Supply Side - Cold Material - There has been a change in the structure of imported scrap copper, with the US re - exporting to Thailand and Japan, while Europe and the Asia - Pacific region are increasing the use of scrap copper. Domestic scrap copper supply is not weak, but the limitation lies in the processing link. The profit of recycled copper processing continues to be under pressure. [19] Supply Side - Raw Materials - China's copper raw material supply - demand gap is expanding. At the current raw material supply level, high - production in the fourth quarter is difficult to sustain. The surge in non - standard raw material imports and raw material inventory are used to supplement smelting raw materials, but their sustainability is questionable. [24] Supply Side - Refined Copper - The spot processing fees (TC/RC) are hovering at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new long - term agreement negotiation. The domestic sulfuric acid price has peaked and declined, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, leading to an expected expansion of smelting processing losses and increasing the operating pressure on smelters from 4Q25 - 1Q26. [28] - Overseas smelters are facing raw material shortages, with an expanding scope of production cuts. The new round of overseas capacity expansion will be restricted by the tight raw material supply. [34] Demand Side - Macro Perspective - The global economy is in the transition stage from "recession" to "recovery", with market expectations fluctuating. The policy cycle is in a stage of loose liquidity and expanding fiscal stimulus. The global manufacturing industry may continue to recover, and a more obvious upward trend may be observed in 1H26. [44] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Domestic) - In the power equipment sector, investment by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid maintains high growth, while local project investment is weak. The demand for power equipment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the "15th Five - Year Plan" related plans. [49] - The core drivers of domestic demand are consumption - stimulating policies and weather factors. The core drivers of external demand are that export demand weakened in the second quarter, while demand from the Asia - Pacific and the Middle East is relatively strong. [56] - In the real estate sector, the decline in completion and new construction areas is narrowing, and the drag on copper demand from the real estate industry is gradually weakening. Policy support is expected to continue to strengthen. [60] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Overseas) - In the US, micro - demand is resilient, with C - end demand showing a downward trend and B - end demand remaining strong. The probability of a severe recession and a sharp decline in demand is low, and the actual annual growth rate of demand is greater than 5%. [68] - In Europe, terminal demand is differentiated, with strong demand in the power sector and weak demand in consumer goods. In Japan, demand is stable with a slight decline. In emerging markets, both C - end and B - end demand are strong, such as India's direct copper demand (including scrap) growing by 19% year - on - year in 2Q25. [72] New Energy Industry Chain - The demand for traditional new energy sources (wind and solar power) has slowed down, but the demand for new energy vehicles is strong. The demand from emerging industries such as AI data centers and energy storage is growing strongly. [77] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2022 - 2026, the global copper supply - demand situation is experiencing "weak shortage - expanding gap - expanding gap - narrowing gap - expanding gap". [4][80] Trading Logic - The main trading logics in 2025 include the dollar cycle, inventory cycle, and manufacturing cycle. If certain scenarios such as A, B, D, F, H, or K occur, the copper price may rise by more than 20% in a stage. [85] - The secondary trading logics include factors such as the continuous weakening or strengthening of global or regional manufacturing industry prosperity, policy stimulus intensity, and unexpected events in the industry. If scenarios such as E, C, G, or J occur, the copper price may fall by more than 20% in a stage. [85]

A股的热情还会延续吗？在洪灏看来，A股短期内或难现疯牛、快牛，但市场整体的上行行情大概率会 延续到2026年，其核心驱动因素在于市场流动性条件的持续改善。 这一改善的核心，一方面源于美联储9月降息预期及国内央行逆回购操作注入流动性，对风险资产表现 构成利好。另一方面还来自于全球流动性的改善，以及海外滞留资金向中国的回流。 中国的外储是宏观流动性的一个非常重要的部分。洪灏表示，将外汇储备变化与中证全A指数对比，可 见二者高度相关。过去几年来，受到美元升值和对美元资产收益预期的影响，我国大量出口创汇选择滞 留海外进行投资。但2025年以来，这些滞留海外的资金开始回流中国。这也解释了在贸易冲突阴影下美 元走弱，而人民币汇率略显走升的现象。 21世纪经济报道记者 黎雨辰 北京报道 "今年70%-80%的股票、四分之三的基金都取得了正收益，而这一行情大概率还没有走完。"8月12日， 在京东财富15理财日投资策略会上，知名经济学家、莲华资产首席投资官洪灏指出。 8月13日，A股市场震荡走高，盘中突破3674点，即2024年10月8日以来的高点。整体来看，年内A股市 场延续强势，三大指数均创年内新高，市场交投活跃度也显著提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The approach of the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to trigger a new round of upward trend in precious metals [2]. - With the US employment market showing signs of weakness and the White House's increasing influence on the Fed, once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will gain strong upward momentum [35]. - The US dollar is in the early stage of a new downward cycle, and the prices of gold and silver denominated in US dollars have the macro - logic to rise continuously in the next 10 years [38]. - The current gold and silver markets are in the third - round bull market, and there is still significant room for price increases in the future [74][77]. - There is a high probability that shorting the gold - silver ratio will become a market consensus in the second half of the year, and silver may become one of the best - performing commodities [69][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Gold - In July, gold entered a low - volatility period. Shanghai gold had a cumulative monthly increase of only 0.35%, while London gold fell 0.72% with the lowest monthly volatility since April [13]. - Factors affecting the gold market in July included the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, the cease - fire in the Middle East, concerns about the Fed's independence, new tariff agreements between the US and Japan and the EU, and the "Genius Act" that diverted funds to cryptocurrencies [13][14]. Silver - In July, the silver market experienced a roller - coaster ride. London silver rose 1.44% with an amplitude over 10%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.5% with an amplitude over 9% [16]. - In the first three weeks of July, the risk appetite increased, and factors such as the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, strong non - farm payrolls data, and Russia's inclusion of silver in foreign reserves boosted silver prices. In the last week, factors like the decline in copper prices, the fall in gold prices, and the rise of cryptocurrencies led to a sharp correction in silver prices [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has declined by 10% since the beginning of the year. The "Lake Tahoe Agreement" aims to reshape the US economy by increasing tariffs and promoting manufacturing reshoring, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. Central banks around the world are accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold holdings [21]. The Pennsylvania Plan - This plan aims to patch the flaws in the Lake Tahoe Agreement by shifting the demand for US Treasury bonds from external to domestic. It uses regulatory measures, tax incentives, and other means to encourage domestic capital to buy US Treasury bonds, with stablecoins as a financial innovation tool [22]. US Employment and Inflation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed resilience, but in July, non - farm payrolls data were worse than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised downward. Inflation has shown signs of rising, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [31][34]. The Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged since December last year. With the weakening of the US employment market, the influence of the White House on the Fed is expected to increase. Once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will rise [35]. The US Dollar Cycle - The US dollar has a cycle of about 17 years, and currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle. The negative correlation between precious metals and the US dollar has been challenged, and a decline in the US dollar index will strongly boost the prices of gold and silver [38]. The Changing Role of Gold's Safe - Haven Attribute - Gold's safe - haven attribute has weakened, and future price increases may require a re - definition of gold, such as its role as an anti - inflation asset or a risk asset [41]. The Increase in US Treasury Bond Scale - The US federal government's debt is expected to continue to rise, and historically, an increase in debt has been associated with rising gold prices [44]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, the pace of central bank gold purchases has slowed down, but the total amount is still considerable. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, which will support gold prices [50]. Gold Investment Demand - In the first half of the year, gold investment demand increased significantly, especially the demand for gold ETFs. This growth offset the slowdown in central bank gold purchases and supported gold prices [53]. Global Physical Silver Supply and Demand - The supply of silver has been growing slowly, mainly due to limited growth in mined silver and recycled silver. The demand for silver in the industrial sector, especially in the photovoltaic and automotive industries, has increased significantly. The global silver market has been in a supply - shortage situation for four consecutive years, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2025 [57][60][64]. Silver's Undervaluation and the Gold - Silver Ratio - Silver is considered undervalued compared to gold and copper. The gold - silver ratio has been high this year but has started to repair since June, and this trend is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year [69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Summary and Outlook - In August, gold is expected to break through and rise. The price of London gold is expected to be between $3250 - 3300/oz and $3500 - 3600/oz, and the price of Shanghai gold is expected to be between 770 - 780 yuan/g and 830 - 850 yuan/g [79][80]. - Silver may have a strong rebound. In July, although it adjusted in the short term, its medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged. The price of London silver is expected to be between $36 - 37/oz and $40 - 42/oz, and the price of Shanghai silver is expected to be between 9000 - 9100 yuan/kg and 9700 - 9800 yuan/kg [79][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the US dollar is entering a new downward cycle due to a combination of short-term, medium-term, and long-term pressures, including interest rate differentials, US debt issues, and the trend of de-dollarization [1][2][19]. Short-term Analysis - Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes began in 2022, the widening interest rate differential between the US and non-US markets has been a key factor supporting the dollar's high position [3]. - The ability of the Federal Reserve to initiate consecutive rate cuts will be crucial for the dollar's future trajectory, as inflation in the US is expected to align more closely with other major economies by mid-2025 [4][5]. - The US economy is showing increasing signs of downward pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a broad decline across various economic indicators [5]. - Other markets are expected to see a slowdown in easing monetary policies, which could further compress the interest rate differentials that have supported the dollar [7][8]. Medium-term Analysis - The US Treasury market is facing significant supply-demand imbalances, exacerbated by the current administration's fiscal policies, which could negatively impact the dollar's value [11][12]. - Over the past two years, the Treasury market has experienced three notable supply-demand crises, indicating ongoing instability [13][14]. - The recent "Great Beautiful Plan" proposed by the Trump administration is projected to worsen the fiscal deficit, leading to further imbalances in the Treasury market [15][16]. - By the end of 2024, the US federal debt is expected to exceed $36 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $952 billion, creating substantial pressure on the dollar [16]. Long-term Analysis - The dollar's dominance is being challenged by a decline in the US's international standing and responsibilities, with its share of global GDP dropping to 14.9% by 2024 [18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with various countries exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade and reserves, which could significantly reduce demand for the dollar [19]. - Historical precedents suggest that large-scale de-dollarization can lead to severe depreciation of the dollar, as seen after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [19].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. dollar**, **U.S. Treasury bonds**, and **Chinese assets**, particularly in the context of the **technology sector** and **investment strategies**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Emerging Trading Trends**: A new trading trend of "East Rising, West Falling" is anticipated to emerge soon, driven by macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [1] 2. **Impact of U.S. Dollar**: The weakening of the U.S. dollar is a critical factor influencing the performance of Chinese assets, as it reflects a decline in global investor demand for dollar-denominated assets [7] 3. **Debt Crisis and Economic Pressure**: The U.S. faces a significant debt repayment pressure, which could lead to a "snowball effect" in its debt crisis, impacting overall economic stability [9] 4. **Correlation Between Dollar and Treasury Yields**: Historically, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have moved in tandem, but recent trends show a divergence due to a crisis in dollar credit, affecting traditional pricing logic [5][6] 5. **Market Valuation Dynamics**: The valuation of growth stocks is heavily influenced by high U.S. dollar interest rates, which are currently exerting pressure on manufacturing and overall corporate profitability [4] 6. **Potential for Non-U.S. Assets**: As the dollar weakens, non-U.S. assets, particularly in China, are expected to strengthen, suggesting a favorable environment for investments in Chinese markets [8][12] 7. **Sector Focus**: The technology sector, especially areas like robotics, artificial intelligence, and innovative materials, is highlighted as a key focus for future investments [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Employment Trends**: The contribution to U.S. non-farm employment is primarily driven by transportation and warehousing, which may face challenges if import behaviors change due to tariff adjustments [10] 2. **Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators**: A potential decline in key economic indicators, such as non-farm employment and retail data, could heighten concerns about a U.S. economic recession, further impacting the dollar [10] 3. **Future Dollar Index Predictions**: The dollar index is projected to potentially drop below previous lows, which could catalyze a new phase of investment in A-shares and H-shares in China [11][12]