Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Xian Dao announced the termination of its acquisition of Haina Pharmaceutical due to disagreements on key terms such as transaction scheme, price, and performance commitments [1][3] Company Summary - Chengdu Xian Dao planned to acquire approximately 65% of Haina Pharmaceutical's shares, which would have made it the controlling shareholder [1] - Following the announcement of the termination, Chengdu Xian Dao's stock price fell over 7% on June 30, closing at 16.08 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 6.443 billion yuan [1] - The company stated that the termination would not adversely affect its business operations or financial status, nor harm the interests of shareholders, especially minority shareholders [1] Industry Context - The pharmaceutical outsourcing industry is currently experiencing a downturn, making such transactions less common [6] - Similar to Chengdu Xian Dao and Haina Pharmaceutical, other companies in the industry, like Aopumai, have also faced challenges in acquisitions due to market conditions [6] - The revenue and profit figures for both Chengdu Xian Dao and Haina Pharmaceutical indicate relatively small scales, with Chengdu Xian Dao's revenue projected to grow from 244 million yuan in 2020 to 427 million yuan in 2024, while Haina Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to increase from 56.8 million yuan to 271 million yuan in the same period [7] Market Dynamics - The innovation drug sector is facing a capital winter, leading to reduced budgets for downstream innovative drug companies, which in turn affects the performance of upstream outsourcing companies [9] - Policies such as volume-based procurement and consistency evaluation have narrowed the profit margins for generic drugs and their outsourcing services [10] - Haina Pharmaceutical reported a significant increase in revenue from its development activities, reaching 74.78 million yuan in the first half of 2023, accounting for 33.09% of total revenue [10]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tongce Medical with a "Reduce" rating and sets a target price of 34 CNY by December 2025 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - The oral healthcare service industry faces both short-term and long-term challenges, leading to pressure on profitability. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 8% and 10% lower than market consensus, respectively [1][4][7]. - Tongce Medical's revenue is heavily reliant on Zhejiang Province, with 90% of its income generated from this region. The company has struggled with slow expansion outside the province and lower profitability in those areas [4][7][19]. - The report highlights that the industry is fragmented, with only about 3% of dental institutions operating in a chain model, limiting pricing power. Additionally, weak consumer spending has reduced demand for high-margin orthodontic and implant services [4][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tongce Medical operates 84 medical institutions and has approximately 3,100 dental chairs as of Q3 2024 [1][7]. - The company was founded in 1995 and is one of the leading dental chains in China [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,847 million CNY in FY23 to 3,125 million CNY in FY25, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% expected from 2024 to 2027 [6][13]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to increase from 500 million CNY in FY23 to 609 million CNY in FY26 [6][13]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates a 7% CAGR for the domestic oral healthcare service market from 2024 to 2028, reaching 193 billion CNY [25][29]. - The market has seen a decline in growth rates due to the pandemic and changing consumer behavior, with a CAGR of only 0.5% from 2019 to 2023 [25][29]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the private sector dominates the oral healthcare market, accounting for over 70% of total revenue, with approximately 92.5% of dental institutions being privately operated [30][31]. - The competitive environment is characterized by price sensitivity among consumers, leading to increased competition from smaller clinics [24][25]. Valuation and Risks - The report finds Tongce Medical's valuation at approximately 35.5 times the expected 2025 earnings, which is considered high compared to peers [19][21]. - The report suggests that the company's growth visibility is low, making the premium valuation unjustifiable [19][21].