智通财经APP获悉，在日本当局干预汇市的预期推动日元近期强劲反弹之际，本国散户投资者却选择逆 向操作，大幅削减看涨日元的头寸，或为日元的涨势设置"隐形上限"。 东京金融交易所(TFX)数据显示，上周五至本周二，个人投资者削减了总计857亿日元(约合5.61亿美元) 的美元兑日元净空头头寸，此类头寸本质上是押注日元走强。市场分析显示，这是自2022年10月以来最 大的三日减持幅度。 法国农业信贷银行G10外汇研究与策略主管瓦伦丁·马里诺夫表示："从狭义角度看，日本散户确实与整 体汇市走势呈现逆势操作;但从更广视角看，他们仍将低收益的日元视为套息交易的融资货币。只要日 本央行被市场认为远比其他主要央行更为鸽派，日元就难以持续走强。" 尽管TFX的净空头头寸规模相对有限，但它揭示了每月高达451万亿日元零售资金流的方向性信号。 截至发稿，日元兑美元下跌0.3%至152.62。过去三个交易日中，因市场猜测日美当局可能联手干预以遏 制日元跌势，日元每个交易日均上涨至少1%。 Gaitame.com综合研究所所长Takuya Kanda指出："158至159日元区间是干预风险极高的水平。因此预计 将看到更多战术性交易策略 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government may intervene in the foreign exchange market sooner than many investors expect, as the yen continues to slide towards 160 yen per dollar [1] - The last intervention by Japanese authorities occurred in July 2024 when the yen reached 160 yen per dollar, and the market anticipates that this level will trigger a new round of intervention [1] - Factors pressuring the yen include speculation that Prime Minister Kishida's stimulus policies may prevent the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates in the short term, while expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have cooled, leading to an expanded interest rate differential that weighs on the yen [1] Group 2 - The Japanese fiscal situation has significantly improved, with the net debt-to-GDP ratio decreasing from 133% to 85% over four and a half years, indicating a reduced need for large reserves to maintain fiscal stability [2] - Kishida's economic plan, which exceeds expectations, will be funded by an additional budget of 17.7 trillion yen, with new bond issuance for the latest economic plan estimated to be slightly below 10 trillion yen [2] - If the Bank of Japan raises borrowing costs in January, it may pause the tightening cycle for about a year to align with the government's growth-supporting stance before resuming tightening until rates reach around 2% [2] Group 3 - The recent rise in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 1.8%, the highest level since 2008, reflects market optimism about the Japanese economy rather than concerns over fiscal conditions [3] - The increase in yields is seen as the market pricing in the possibility of higher terminal rates, countering rumors that investors are "selling Japan" [3]