智通财经APP获悉，市场正日益猜测日本央行将在本月加息，但参与者仍押注日元兑美元将继续走弱。 美国银行、野村控股和加拿大皇家银行资本市场的交易员表示，投资者的仓位布局反映了此类押注。一 项衡量交易员整体仓位的指标花旗集团的日元"痛苦指数"仍远低于零，这表明市场对该货币的悲观情绪 持续存在。 即使在日本央行行长植田和男暗示可能很快加息，且据称央行准备好在12月采取行动(除非经济或金融 市场遭遇重大冲击)之后，投资者依然坚守着看跌押注。其逻辑在于，即便日本央行可能采取行动，日 本的收益率预计仍将大幅低于美国，而这将支撑美元。 "仓位布局仍然倾向于美元兑日元在年底前逐步走高，除非日本央行带来真正的意外冲击，否则这一趋 势难以扭转，"美国银行亚太区G-10货币交易主管伊万·斯塔梅诺维奇(驻香港)表示。他指出，植田的鹰 派言论引发了关于该货币对的讨论，但市场情绪并未发生实质性转变。 日本财务大臣片山皐月(Satsuki Katayama)一直试图遏制日元的疲软走势，但成效有限，日元走势部分原 因是对日本央行加息延迟的猜测助长了这种疲软。即便在本月植田发出迄今为止最明确的即将加息信号 后日元有所上涨，其涨幅也仅为温和。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair is a focal point for investors, reflecting economic conditions in the US and Japan, and influencing global capital flows. Recent performance has sparked widespread market discussion and predictions about its future trajectory [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Bank of Japan's policy adjustments, global economic growth, and geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed's commitment to combating inflation and reducing asset purchases supports a stronger dollar, pushing USD/JPY towards key resistance levels [1][4]. - The Japanese economy is experiencing mild inflation, leading to a continued loose monetary policy, which puts downward pressure on the yen [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key pivot points for USD/JPY are identified at 110.00 and 112.00, serving as strategic resistance and support levels. Market participants closely monitor trading volume and price behavior as the exchange rate approaches these levels [2]. - Technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD can provide early warnings of potential price movements. For instance, a MACD crossover near resistance could indicate bullish momentum, while a rebound in RSI near support may signal a reversal [7]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - Economic data, including US employment figures, inflation metrics, and GDP growth, play a crucial role in shaping market expectations. Positive data could lead to a rebound in the dollar, while disappointing figures may prompt a pullback [4][8]. - Future monetary policy directions will be a significant variable affecting market conditions. A faster tightening pace by the Fed could strengthen the dollar, while unexpected economic data or policy shifts could lead to adjustments in the USD/JPY exchange rate [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risk Factors - Market sentiment and risk appetite are critical, with global uncertainties such as geopolitical conflicts and pandemic developments potentially impacting the dollar's performance [5]. - The current market environment is characterized by a "box range" between 110.00 and 112.00, with potential for a breakout or reversal depending on economic indicators or unforeseen events [5][9]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations for Investors - Investors are advised to stay alert to market dynamics and prepare for potential pivot point changes. Understanding these points is essential for future investment strategies [6]. - Setting reasonable stop-loss levels is crucial for risk management, regardless of whether a breakout or reversal occurs. Observing market volume and price behavior near key pivot points can help assess the validity of breakouts [8].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a weakening USD/JPY exchange rate is increasing following the Japanese Senate elections, influenced by various factors [1] Group 1: Economic Policies - The Japanese government may adopt more expansionary fiscal policies, with funding expected to come from the tax surplus of the 2024 fiscal year rather than new bond issuance, which should help alleviate downward pressure on the yen [1] - Market expectations for Bank of Japan interest rate hikes have been lowered to a cumulative increase of 16 basis points by the end of 2025, indicating limited further downside for the yen in the context of a dovish central bank stance [1] Group 2: Market Positioning - Nomura has re-established short positions on USD/JPY, targeting a decline to 142.00 by the end of October [1] - The current USD/JPY exchange rate is stable around 147.60 [1]