Group 1 - The report highlights that the intensity of AI investment in the US is high, but the sustainability of marginal returns is questionable. There is a possibility of external pressure being transferred to maintain the expansion path until a systemic correction occurs in the related bubble [2][3] - The process of maintaining AI valuations in the US may create a siphoning effect on global sovereign wealth, exacerbating the fragility of the global financial system. If energy prices continue to rise, the probability of the Federal Reserve restarting the interest rate hike cycle may increase [3] - In the context of rising global fragility, RMB assets may have relatively outstanding allocation value. It is suggested to focus on the two main lines of the RMB's phase appreciation and rising energy prices, and to conduct structural adjustments in the Chinese market on an annual basis [3] Group 2 - The report expresses a mid-term positive outlook on coal, new energy, agriculture, electricity, oil, and US capital goods related to inflation [3] - For the long term, the report favors insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution, and Chinese internet companies [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve maintains a positive outlook on the resilience of the US economy, raising the GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2.3% to 2.4%. However, inflation concerns have significantly increased, with the overall PCE inflation forecast for 2026 raised from 2.4% to 2.7% [8][10] - The report notes that the US AI infrastructure expansion is driving capital expenditure growth, but the commercialization process is relatively lagging, raising doubts about the sustainability of marginal capital returns [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Powell's speech triggered market sentiment fluctuations, causing a rapid decline in aluminum prices. However, there is no need to worry about entering an interest - rate hike cycle. The price correction released the risk of the previous continuous rise and is beneficial for price transmission. Overseas, there are actual production cuts, and the situation is still favorable for aluminum prices. In China, the decline in the futures price has stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and an inflection point in aluminum ingot inventory is expected. In the long run, the price correction provides a good opportunity for buying hedging. For alumina, policy adjustments and oil - price fluctuations support the cost, and the center of alumina price may rise slightly [6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On March 19, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,490 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was - 190 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,410 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 30 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,490 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,800 yuan/ton, closed at 24,180 yuan/ton, a change of - 655 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,880 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,080 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 460,368 lots, and the position was 292,404 lots [2] Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.339 million tons, a change of 13,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 393,226 tons, a change of 1,020 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 432,725 tons, a change of - 3,900 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On March 19, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,755 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,740 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,780 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 298 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,085 yuan/ton, closed at 3,027 yuan/ton, a change of - 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 1.24%, with a maximum price of 3,136 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3,016 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 980,719 lots, and the position was 268,233 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 19, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 24,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 53,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 81,500 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,604 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 896 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Powell's speech caused price fluctuations. Overseas, there are production cuts and supply concerns, and the overseas situation is favorable for aluminum prices. In China, the decline in the futures price stimulates downstream purchasing, and an inflection point in inventory is expected. In the long run, the price correction provides a buying opportunity [6] - **Alumina**: Guinea will cut bauxite exports in April. Policy adjustments and oil - price fluctuations support the cost. In China, the supply is still in surplus, but the cost increase and policy changes may slightly raise the price center [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the Shanghai rubber (RU) 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and weakening" [1][5] - For the synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation and strengthening", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and weakening" [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Core logic: After US President Trump signaled that the war against Iran might end soon, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East quickly cooled down, and international crude oil futures prices sharply corrected from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in energy - chemical commodities. Rising oil prices led to an increase in inflation expectations, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle might end early and be replaced by an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Although the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a stable oscillation trend during the night session on Tuesday, with a slight increase in the futures price, the rebound momentum was lacking. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Core logic: After US President Trump signaled that the war against Iran might end soon, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East quickly cooled down, and international crude oil futures prices sharply corrected from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in energy - chemical commodities. Rising oil prices led to an increase in inflation expectations, and the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle might end early and be replaced by an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. In the context of the collective weakening of energy - chemical commodities, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed an oscillating decline during the night session on Tuesday, with a slight decrease in the futures price. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber may maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Wednesday [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 may maintain a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The short - term trend of crude oil 2604 is volatile and strong, the medium - term trend is volatile and strong, the intraday trend is volatile and weak, and the reference view is also volatile and weak [1]. Driving Logic - As US President Trump signaled the possible end of the war against Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East declined rapidly, the crude oil premium significantly reversed, and international crude oil futures prices pulled back sharply from high levels, weakening the bullish sentiment in the energy and chemical commodities. With the rise of inflation expectations, the global central banks' interest - rate cut cycle may end early and an interest - rate hike cycle may begin, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Against this backdrop, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract showed a high - level pullback during the night session on Monday, and the futures price converged its gains [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 is expected to run with a bullish bias in the short - term and intraday, and maintain a sideways trend in the medium - term [1][5] - The synthetic rubber futures contract 2605 is expected to run strongly in the short - term, intraday, and medium - term [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: The short - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways with a bullish bias, with a reference view of bullish operation. The core logic is that due to the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the prices of crude oil futures at home and abroad have risen significantly, inflation expectations have recovered, the expected liquidity has tightened, and a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Supported by the bullish atmosphere, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a sideways - bullish trend on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [1][5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: The short - term and intraday views are strong, and the medium - term view is sideways with a bullish bias, with a reference view of strong operation. The core logic is that due to the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the prices of crude oil futures at home and abroad have risen significantly, the production cost of synthetic rubber has increased. Driven by the transmission logic, the domestic synthetic rubber futures contract 2605 showed a strong operation trend on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain a strong operation pattern on Monday [1][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures contracts 2605 will maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, March 4, 2026. The short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday view is weak and volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak and volatile. The overall view is a weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased. Iran has announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil futures prices. The rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, potentially ending the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle and starting an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Under these bearish factors, the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a downward trend in the night session on Tuesday, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak and volatile. The overall view is a weak operation [1]. - **Core Logic**: The military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend has led to an increase in geopolitical risks. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused crude oil futures prices to continue to strengthen. The rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, potentially ending the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle and starting an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Against this background, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed limited upward momentum and narrowed its gains in the night session on Tuesday, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and New Zealand dollar have significantly outperformed other major currencies this year as traders bet on a shift from interest rate cuts to hikes in global monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar has appreciated over 6% against the US dollar year-to-date, reaching its highest level in nearly three years [1]. - The New Zealand dollar has risen approximately 3.7% against the US dollar this year, with expectations of an upcoming interest rate hike [3]. - The Norwegian krone has gained over 5% due to unexpectedly high inflation, leading traders to speculate on a potential small rate hike in the first half of the year [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Shifts - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike in over two years [1][3]. - Analysts believe this could signal the beginning of a sustained tightening cycle, with expectations of one to two more rate hikes this year, each by 25 basis points [3]. - The shift in monetary policy reflects a broader trend among major economies to end years of rate cuts and focus on controlling inflation [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The economic structures of Australia, New Zealand, and Norway are heavily weighted towards commodities, often categorizing them as "commodity currencies" [3]. - Recent increases in oil, copper, and other export commodity prices have provided additional support for these currencies [3]. - Concerns over the U.S. government's fluctuating policies and rising debt levels have led investors to seek diversification away from dollar-denominated assets, benefiting these commodity currencies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing a significant shift as traders bet on a transition from declining global interest rates to rising rates, with the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and New Zealand dollar outperforming other major currencies this year [2][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar has risen nearly 6% against the US dollar this year, reaching a three-year high, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's anticipated new rate hike cycle to combat inflation [2][3]. - The New Zealand dollar has increased by nearly 4%, with traders expecting the country to initiate its first rate hike in the coming months [2]. - The Norwegian krone has appreciated over 5%, spurred by unexpected inflation increases that have led traders to price in potential rate hikes in the first half of the year [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Analysts suggest that these currencies are indicative of a broader hawkish shift among major economies, moving away from years of rate cuts to focus on controlling inflation [3]. - The Australian economy is at the forefront of this rate hike wave, with the trimmed mean inflation rate reported at 3.4%, exceeding analysts' expectations and increasing the likelihood of further rate hikes [3][4]. - The performance of these currencies is also supported by rising prices of commodities such as oil and copper, which are significant for their economies [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are diversifying away from US dollar assets due to concerns over the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration and rising government debt [4]. - The expectation of rate hikes in other regions has contributed to the weakening of the US dollar, as higher rates elsewhere erode the support for the dollar [4]. - Despite pressure from President Trump for lower borrowing costs, most traders believe the Fed's rate cut cycle is not yet over, with expectations of two to three 25 basis point cuts this year [4]. Group 4: Fiscal Health - The Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and New Zealand dollar are favored by investors due to the relative fiscal health of their countries, contrasting with concerns over large government deficits and rising debt in currencies like the yen, dollar, and pound [4][5]. - The top-performing G10 currencies are characterized as fiscally sound and commodity-exposed, making them attractive destinations for capital as it rotates out of the US [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese government bond futures rose in the Tokyo market due to expectations that the Bank of Japan may pause its interest rate hike cycle [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Analysts from InTouch Capital Markets noted that local media reported Prime Minister Sanna Takashi expressed reluctance for further rate hikes during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] - The market is concerned about how the Prime Minister might achieve this goal, especially with several members of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board set to be replaced [1] Group 2: Bond Yield Changes - The 5-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 1.57% [1] - The 2-year Japanese government bond yield also decreased by 2.5 basis points to 1.215% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-share market presents five-star investment opportunities approximately every 3 to 5 years, with notable instances occurring at the end of 2018 and during 2022-2024 [2] - In 2015, the A-share market was overvalued, but between 2015 and 2016, gold assets showed five-star investment opportunities, indicating that certain asset classes can become attractive over time [2] - Five-star investment opportunities are more likely to emerge during interest rate hike cycles, as market liquidity tends to contract, leading to undervalued assets becoming available for purchase [3]