近两次的反转行情都呈现出"急涨急跌"的态势。为稳定港元汇率，香港金管局于8月13日和14日分别回笼港币70.65亿元和33.76亿元。致使香港银行体系总结 余从6月的近1750亿港元的高位回落。跌至537亿港元，接近回落到5月初香港金管局未干预前的446亿港元的水平。伴随港元汇率的大幅拉升，港元资金供应 收紧。多期限HIBOR大幅上涨。隔夜港元拆借利率已从先前的不足0.2%大幅上升至近3%。港元各期限HIBOR连续第三天大涨。 流动性收紧引发质变 下半年以来，港元汇率屡屡触及弱方兑换保证。香港金管局频频出手稳定港元汇率。港元近期的急速拉升，与套息交易多头反转密不可分。当港元结余下降 到一定程度之后，流动性不再像之前那么充裕。港元资金成本脱离零利率，港元与美元利差收窄。借港元、换美元的套息交易平仓导致港元汇率升值。以银 行总结余为代表的港元流动性和港元资金利率呈现非线性关系。 从历史数据来看，当总结余下降至500亿港元附近时，HIBOR才会出现明显变化。随着总结余回落至目前的水平，流动性的边际扰动成为影响港元资金利率 的主导因素。直到近期香港金管局的干预行为，才开始带动港元资金利率大幅收紧。南向资金带来了旺盛的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of factors including the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) interventions, narrowing interest rate differentials, and significant inflows of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The Hong Kong dollar has appreciated for five consecutive trading days, reaching a high of 7.7926 against the US dollar, with a daily increase of 0.35% [1]. - The exchange rate has broken through multiple levels, moving from a stable 7.85 to 7.80, indicating a significant upward trend [1][2]. Group 2: HKMA Interventions - The HKMA has intervened to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar by withdrawing liquidity, with significant amounts of HKD 70.65 billion and HKD 33.76 billion being absorbed on August 13 and 14, respectively [2]. - The total balance of the Hong Kong banking system has decreased from nearly HKD 175 billion in June to approximately HKD 53.7 billion, nearing the pre-intervention level of HKD 44.6 billion [2][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Dynamics - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has surged, with overnight rates rising from below 0.2% to nearly 3% due to tightening liquidity conditions [2][4]. - The relationship between liquidity and interest rates is non-linear, with significant changes in HIBOR occurring when the total balance approaches HKD 500 million [4]. Group 4: Capital Inflows - There has been a notable influx of southbound capital, with a record net inflow of approximately HKD 35.877 billion on August 15, driving demand for the Hong Kong dollar [4]. - The demand for the Hong Kong dollar is further supported by the expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to influence the interest rate differential between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the Hong Kong dollar will depend on the balance between interest rate differentials and the activity of carry trades [5]. - While the Hong Kong dollar may appreciate moderately, it is unlikely to return to the strong side of the peg at 7.75 in the short term due to the current low interest rate environment and limited likelihood of significant Fed rate cuts [6].

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,177, down 0.37% for the day but up 25.51% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,449, down 0.01% for the day and up 9.65% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85% to 3,728, with a year-to-date increase of 11.23% [1] Industry Insights - The healthcare sector showed resilience, with major life sciences companies reporting better-than-expected performance in 2Q25, leading to upward revisions in annual guidance [5][6] - The pharmaceutical industry is facing pressure on profit margins due to external factors, but major pharmaceutical companies continue to invest in R&D, indicating a stable outlook for innovation [8] - The retail sector in the U.S. demonstrated resilience with a monthly growth rate increase from 0% in the first half of the year to 0.7% in July, indicating strong consumer spending [4] Company Analysis - Tongcheng Travel reported a total revenue of RMB 4.7 billion in 2Q25, a 10% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 18% to RMB 775 million, exceeding expectations [8] - Xtep's sales for the first half of 2025 grew by 7% to RMB 6.8 billion, with net profit increasing by 21% to RMB 913 million, surpassing forecasts [13] - Leap Motor achieved a revenue of RMB 14.2 billion in 2Q25, a 42% quarter-on-quarter increase, marking its first positive operating profit [14] Investment Ratings - Leap Motor is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HKD 80, reflecting a strong growth outlook driven by new model launches and expanding sales [14] - Xtep maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 7.39, supported by robust sales performance and operational efficiency [12] - Tongcheng Travel is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of HKD 24.00, based on its strong core business performance [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the Hong Kong dollar, suggesting a light holding of positions due to market volatility and uncertainty in exchange rate direction [4]. Core Insights - The rising cost of Hong Kong dollar funding poses risks, necessitating banks to maintain higher liquidity buffers. Market liquidity has decreased, exacerbating market anxiety among carry traders [1][2]. - The yield curve is flattening, with short-term financing costs remaining high. The market is seeking yield protection for 1 to 3-month terms, with 3-month rates recently exceeding 2% [1][3]. - The report highlights the potential for arbitrage opportunities in the Hong Kong dollar, but emphasizes the importance of risk-reward ratios and timing for entry [5]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Dollar Analysis - The significant volatility in the Hong Kong dollar is attributed to a general complacency in the market, with banks needing to hold higher liquidity buffers due to large settlement demands [2]. - The current state of the spot market is chaotic, with a preference for light positions until further evidence of exchange rate direction emerges [4]. Yield Curve and Market Behavior - During the initial volatility, there was increased interest in long-term sports betting, reflecting expectations that Hong Kong dollar arbitrage remains attractive despite recent price declines [3]. - The yield curve is currently flat, with a concentration of price movements at the front end, indicating a market focus on short-term yield protection [3]. Taiwan Dollar and Indian Rupee Insights - The Taiwan dollar is expected to appreciate moderately in the second half of the year, with increased hedging to mitigate liquidity ratio deterioration risks [7]. - The Indian rupee faces pressure due to changing trade sentiments and capital outflows, with expectations of reaching a target of around 87 by year-end [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) has been rising, with the one-month HIBOR reaching 2% on August 18, marking a new high since May 8, indicating a shift in the banking system's liquidity and interest rate dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Banking System and HIBOR Trends - The banking system's surplus has decreased from a high of 1,740 million HKD in May to approximately 537 million HKD, nearing levels before the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in early May [1] - The continuous rise in HIBOR over four consecutive working days suggests a tightening liquidity environment, with the actual mortgage rate now at 3.3%, still below the market cap of 3.5% [1][2] - The significant widening of the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. has led to increased arbitrage activities, prompting the HKMA to intervene multiple times [1] Group 2: Future Expectations and Implications - The rise in HIBOR is expected to narrow the interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S., reducing the incentive for arbitrage and stabilizing the Hong Kong dollar [2] - Despite the current HIBOR being over 2% lower than U.S. rates, expectations of a potential U.S. rate cut later this year could further influence HIBOR downward, with predictions of a decrease in the best lending rate (P) and capped mortgage rates by 0.25% to 0.5% [2] - Factors such as demand for Hong Kong dollars, arbitrage activities, and seasonal influences will continue to affect HIBOR fluctuations, necessitating borrowers to choose capped mortgage plans to mitigate risks associated with rising rates [2]

伴随日美关税措施的不确定性逐渐消退，日本股市迎来大涨。 当地时间8月12日，东京股市两大股指空高开，早盘期间大盘波动向上，盘中两大股指均涨至历史新 高，下午交易时段一度遭遇高位抛售，两大股指涨幅有所收窄。截至收盘，日经225指数涨2.15%或 897.69点，收报42718.17点。东证指数继本月7日突破3000点大关后，继续上扬，涨1.39%，收报3066.37 点。 盘面上，科技股和银行股领涨，截至收盘，软银集团上涨6.92%，瑞穗金融集团上涨3.32%。 近期日元走弱和对美国关税对收益影响的担忧缓解，是刺激日股上扬的主要因素。渣打中国财富管理部 首席投资策略师王昕杰向21世纪经济报道记者表示，日美在关税问题上短期边际改善，近期日本市场出 现了资金流入加速的迹象，从中期来看，和全球投资者再平衡有一定关系，市场预计美股可能出现调 整，将有一部分资金分散至其他市场。 日股升至历史高位 8月12日，东京两大股指双双刷新纪录，日经225指数刷新历史收盘高位，东证指数也同步突破去年7月 的峰值。 中国银行研究院主管王有鑫也向21世纪经济报道记者表示，近期日经指数上涨受多重因素影响：一是， 经贸摩擦相关的避险情绪有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Japanese stocks is attributed to multiple factors, including easing trade tensions, strong corporate earnings, and favorable government policies, rather than an optimistic outlook on the Japanese economy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 12, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 2.15% or 897.69 points, closing at 42718.17 points, while the Topix index increased by 1.39%, closing at 3066.37 points [1]. - The rise in the stock market was led by technology and banking stocks, with SoftBank Group up 6.92% and Mizuho Financial Group up 3.32% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - Easing of trade tensions between Japan and the U.S. has alleviated concerns, benefiting sectors like automotive and electronics [2]. - Recent corporate earnings reports indicate stable profitability and healthy cash flow among Japanese companies, enhancing investor confidence [2]. - The Japanese government's policies aimed at improving shareholder returns and increasing stock buybacks have created a more attractive investment environment [2]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - There has been a continuous net inflow of foreign capital into Japanese stocks for 14 weeks from April to mid-July, driven by the attractiveness of Japanese equities [2]. - The valuation advantage of Japanese stocks compared to other developed markets suggests a potential for catch-up gains [3]. - The low debt levels and high cash positions of many non-financial Japanese companies contribute to their appeal [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the Japanese stock market, with Goldman Sachs raising the Topix index target from 3000 to 3200 points and Citigroup forecasting the Nikkei 225 index to reach 45000 points by year-end [5]. - The potential for continued fiscal stimulus from the Japanese government is expected to provide liquidity support for the stock market [4]. - However, concerns about government debt sustainability and the impact of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan could introduce volatility [4][5].

在美联储降息预期和美元走弱推动下，全球套息交易强势回归，墨西哥比索成为这轮资金流动的最大赢家，意外成为特朗普贸易 政策的最大受益者。 过去三个月，比索兑美元升值4%，超越其他主要货币成为表现最佳的新兴市场资产。作为贸易战的早期受害者之一，该货币曾 在今年2月美国宣布对墨西哥征收25%关税后暴跌至21比索兑1美元的低点。如今比索已反弹至18.5左右，不仅完全抹去特朗普当 选以来的跌幅，更成为套利交易复苏的核心受益者。 这一转变得益于墨西哥在美国贸易关系谈判中的相对成功表现。与其他国家不同，墨西哥通过USMCA协议获得了大部分商品免 征关税的待遇，并在7月31日获得特朗普"对等关税"政策90天延期。三菱UFJ银行全球市场研究主管Derek Halpenny表示："墨西哥 被认为在与美国的关系谈判中处理得比其他国家更好。" 与此同时，当前套利交易环境为墨西哥比索等高收益货币提供了强劲推动力。据彭博数据，追踪八种新兴市场货币表现的累计外 汇套息交易指数今年已上涨超过10%，专门投资发展中国家债券的全球基金在过去4个月每周都有资金流入。 三大因素推动套利交易复苏 第三个推动因素是市场波动率的显著下降。芝商所集团美元-比 ...

Group 1 - Hubei Province has established the Brain-Computer Interface Industry Innovation Development Alliance, which aims to create a full-chain ecosystem and has released the first national pricing standard for brain-computer interface medical services [2] - The A-share market has seen a surge in brain-computer interface concept stocks due to favorable policies from seven departments and technological innovations [2] - The financing and securities balance in the A-share market has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in nearly a decade, indicating a significant increase in market activity [2] Group 2 - The average return of billion-level private equity funds has exceeded 16% this year, with a high positive return rate of 98%, indicating a recovery in the private equity issuance market [3] - Several companies in the A-share market have foreign ownership exceeding 24%, with foreign investors optimistic about the future performance of these stocks [3] - Baiguoyuan's chairman addressed concerns about high fruit prices, while the company's financial report indicated a decline in revenue and a shift from profit to loss [3] Group 3 - The U.S. labor statistics for July showed disappointing employment data, leading to controversy over the handling of economic data by the Trump administration [4] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair supports three interest rate cuts this year, with market expectations leaning towards a rate cut in September [5] - Industrial Fulian reported significant growth in revenue and net profit, with AI server revenue increasing by over 60% year-on-year, reflecting a strong demand for AI computing hardware [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the future pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will depend on U.S. inflation and employment data [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) noted that the local interest rate environment may change due to various factors, and residents should consider the potential for rising Hong Kong dollar interest rates when making financial decisions [1] Group 2 - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. remains attractive for carry trades, keeping the Hong Kong dollar close to the 7.85 level [2] - Recent demand for Hong Kong dollar liquidity related to stock investments has provided some support for the currency [2] - Future considerations include changes in Hong Kong dollar supply and demand, uncertainties surrounding U.S. monetary policy, and global financial market conditions, which may trigger the "weak side convertibility guarantee" again [2]