Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of over 400% in 2025, reaching 2.01 billion yuan. The annualized weighted average ROE is 4.16%, up by 1.97 percentage points [1] - The integration of Minsheng Securities has driven a leap in performance, with various business revenues experiencing substantial growth. The company has adjusted its market trading volume and price fluctuation assumptions, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2026-2028 [1] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 2.2 billion yuan in 2026, 2.5 billion yuan in 2027, and 2.7 billion yuan in 2028, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11%, 11%, and 8% respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company's net income from brokerage business reached 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 193%, with significant contributions from securities brokerage, seat trading, and distribution [2] - The investment banking segment generated a net income of 900 million yuan, up 165% year-on-year, completing 10 equity financing projects, including 5 IPOs [2] - Asset management net income was 780 million yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, with total entrusted funds in securities asset management reaching 196 billion yuan, up 38% [2] - Investment income, including fair value changes, was 3.46 billion yuan, a 254% increase year-on-year, with a self-operated investment return rate of 5.11% [3] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 was 7.673 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 32.5% and a net profit margin of 26.2% [4][7] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 23.3, 20.9, and 19.3 respectively, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 1.0, 0.9, and 0.9 [4][6] - The expected EPS for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 0.39, 0.44, and 0.47 yuan respectively [4][7] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 203.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 245.4 billion yuan in 2028 [6]

| 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 并表民生证券，整合驱动业绩跃升 2025 年公司归母净利润 20.1 亿元，同比+405%，年化加权平均 ROE 4.16%，同 比+1.97pct，期末杠杆率（扣客户保证金）3.08 倍，较年初-1.28 倍。并表民生证 券，各项业务收入实现跨越式增长。我们下调市场交易量、涨跌幅假设，下调 2026、2027 年并新增 2028 年盈利预测，预计 2026-2028 年归母净利润为 22、25、 27 亿元（2026、2027 年调前 23、27 亿元），同比+11%/+11%/+8%。当前股价对 应 PB 分别为 1.0/0.9/0.9 倍，公司并表民生证券增强综合实力、夯实资本金，随 着整合不断推进，业务协同下盈利能力与成长空间有望进一步释放，维持"买入" 评级。 整合效应释放，经纪投行高增，资管规模稳步扩张 非银金融/证券Ⅱ 国联民生（601456.SH） 归母净利润同比增长超 4 倍 ...