每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 华创证券指出，非银金融行业中保险板块值得重视，短期保费开门红及中期投资收益增厚有望带动 业绩表现。定存集中到期背景下，居民存款搬家可能带来保费增量，推动保险行业实现开门红；同时， 股市走强或增厚保险权益投资收益，通胀回归下利率抬升也有望提升保险票息收益。证券Ⅱ行业作为顺 周期板块，在经济工作会议定调及"十五五"开局之年，财政发力基建项目加码的预期下，行业景气度有 望提升。当前市场流动性驱动特征明显，ETF及两融资金持续放量，叠加人民币升值预期下外资回流， 对非银金融板块形成支撑。 证券ETF（512880）跟踪的是证券公司指数（399975），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务与证券市场 紧密相关的上市公司证券作为指数样本，涵盖经纪、投行、自营等业务领域，以反映证券行业相关上市 公司证券的整体表现和市场动态。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品 ...

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融/ 证券Ⅱ 2026 年 01 月 04 日 相关研究 《公募基金改革三阶段落地！——《公开 募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征 求意见稿）》点评》 2025/09/07 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 公募基金费率改革收官 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 《管理规定》与征求意见稿的区别在于①细化混合基金、指数基金认（申）购费；②针对指数基 金、债基的赎回费设置差异化收费。①：征求意见稿：股票型：认（申）购费率≤0.8%、混合 型：认（申）购费率≤0.5%、债券型：认（申）购费率≤0.3%；正式稿：主动偏股型:认（申）购 费率≤0.8%；其他类型的混合型：认（申）购费率≤0.5%；指数型基金、债券型：认（申）购费 率≤0.3%。由此可见，《管理规定》将指数型基金单论，其认（申）购费率和债基一致，目前指 数基金是投资者入市青睐的品种，监管此举等 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]

12月26日，证券ETF（512880）收涨超0.6%。从资金面来看，近5日净流入超3.4亿元，非银金融板块修 复预期受关注。 风险提示：数据来源：Wind；截至2025年12月25日，证券ETF规模为576.35亿元，在同类21只产品中排 名第一。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考， 不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资 建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要 素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 华创证券指出，非银金融行业中的保险板块作为居民资产搬家的重要方向，短期银行定存到期有望带来 保费增量实现开门红；中期视角下，股市走强或将增厚保险权益投资收益，通胀回归下利率抬升将增厚 保险票息收益。券商板块有望在政策催化下迎来估值修复，重点关注头部券商的外延扩张机会。证券Ⅱ 行业方面，随着政策支持力度加大，行业整体估值修复预期增强，尤其是头部券商在并购重组等政策支 持下有望进一步提升竞争力。 证券ETF（512880 ...

Group 1 - Yongtai Technology's wholly-owned subsidiary has received approval for trial production of a lithium battery additive project with an annual capacity of 5,000 tons, set to begin trial production [1] - Mengke Pharmaceutical has decided to terminate its plan to issue shares to a specific entity due to ongoing disagreements among major shareholders, which could impact the company's stable operations [1] - Anhui Construction's subsidiary has been approved to register and issue debt financing tools totaling 15 billion yuan, including 5 billion yuan in short-term financing notes and 10 billion yuan in medium-term notes [2] Group 2 - Koli'er plans to repurchase shares worth between 10 million and 20 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 20.94 yuan per share, to implement an employee stock ownership plan [2] - Xinhua Pharmaceutical has received approval for the production of fumaric acid volnoral raw materials, which are used to treat gastroesophageal reflux disease [3] - Lianhuan Pharmaceutical has received approval for additional specifications of tadalafil tablets, expanding its product offerings for treating erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia [5] Group 3 - Greenland Holdings reported an increase of 1,834 lawsuits with a total amount of 6.587 billion yuan from October 21 to November 13, 2025 [7] - Lianke Technology plans to invest up to 600 million yuan of idle funds in low-risk financial products [8] - Yinglian Co. signed a strategic procurement contract for 5,000 million square meters of composite aluminum foil with a leading new energy technology company [10] Group 4 - China Eastern Airlines reported a 10.58% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for October, with a capacity increase of 6.84% [12] - China National Airlines reported an 8.7% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for October, with domestic and international capacity also showing growth [15] - Oupai Home plans to use 320 million yuan of idle funds to purchase structured deposits with expected annual yields between 0.65% and 2.50% [16] Group 5 - Tianwei Food has submitted H-share issuance application materials to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which have been accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [18] - Guizhou Aviation plans to establish a subsidiary focused on the research, production, and market expansion of intelligent automotive components, with initial operating funds of 40 million yuan [20] - Daimai Co. plans to invest 100 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Shanghai focused on robotics technology [22] Group 6 - Founder Securities has received approval to issue company bonds totaling up to 30 billion yuan [24] - Hengrui Medicine has received clinical trial approvals for multiple drugs, indicating ongoing research and development efforts [26] - Zhaojing Pharmaceutical's product ZG006 has received orphan drug designation from the FDA, providing various benefits for its development in the U.S. market [39]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.97% at 3990.49 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.93% [1][7] - The industrial production showed steady growth, with the national industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year in October, and the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.0% [2][8] - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 46,291 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [2][23] Market Review - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of approximately 1.96 trillion yuan, with over 3000 stocks declining [1][7] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.85%, while the U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% and the Nasdaq up 0.13% [1][7] Economic Data - The consumer price index (CPI) turned from decline to increase, rising by 0.2% year-on-year in October, compared to a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month [2][8] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment continued to grow [2][8] Industry Analysis - The offline pharmacy sector showed significant profit growth in Q3 2025, indicating effective cost control and efficiency improvements [9][14] - The pharmaceutical sector's performance in Q3 was better than the previous two quarters, with the medical research outsourcing and chemical preparation sub-sectors showing notable gains [10][12] Investment Recommendations - The long-term logic of prescription outflow remains unchanged, benefiting leading pharmacies with strong service capabilities and supply chain systems [14] - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerage firms with relatively low valuations, as the brokerage sector is expected to see performance improvements [15][17] Retail Sector Insights - The retail sector's performance in October showed a decline in commodity retail growth, while dining revenue growth improved [23][24] - Online retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 9.6% year-on-year, accounting for 31.03% of total retail sales [25][26]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index (沪指) is experiencing strong fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, indicating a resilient A-share market as the year-end approaches[2] - Following the hawkish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, market expectations for a December rate cut have cooled, with the US dollar index briefly surpassing 100 points, leading to declines in major global stock markets[2] Economic Factors - Recent trade negotiations between China and the US have led to a consensus on tariff issues, which may improve trade relations and boost market risk appetite[2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set the tone for macroeconomic policies and key tasks for the following year, influencing investment strategies[2] Performance Correlation - Historical analysis from 2014 to 2023 shows that from November onwards, the correlation between stock price performance and the current year's earnings significantly decreases, while the correlation with the next year's earnings increases[10] - The correlation between stock prices and next year's earnings continues to rise from November to April, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards future performance[10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider sectors with high earnings growth and relatively low valuations for 2026, such as marine equipment, precious metals, medical services, and industrial metals[6] - The military industry is expected to remain a strategic focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with trends towards cost reduction, automation, and globalization[6] Risk Considerations - Market participants should remain cautious due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potential impacts on global markets[2] - The ongoing concerns regarding the AI bubble and its effects on large tech stocks in the US may also pose risks to market stability[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][30]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.129 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.55%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.733 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items surged by 100.04% to 12.639 billion yuan [1][3]. - The increase in performance is attributed to the sustained activity in the capital markets, with significant growth in brokerage, investment banking, and credit business revenues [1]. - The company's brokerage business revenue reached 6.588 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 66.14% year-on-year, driven by enhanced market activity [2]. - The investment banking segment also showed recovery, with revenues of 1.948 billion yuan, up 43.51% year-on-year, and a significant increase in equity underwriting amounts [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net interest income of 3.27 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 151% year-on-year, with the scale of funds lent rising by 61% to 169.8 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 895.697 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit forecast of 18.143 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 18.2% [31]. Business Segments - The asset management business faced challenges, with net income dropping by 55.35% to 1.354 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a strong international presence, with operations in markets such as the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia, enhancing its cross-border financial services capabilities [24][25]. Technology and Innovation - The "AI Zhangle" app is a significant innovation, utilizing AI to enhance user interaction and investment decision-making, which is expected to attract younger investors [18][20]. - The company has maintained a high level of IT investment, exceeding 2 billion yuan annually since 2021, supporting its technological advancements [20][22]. Future Outlook - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 0.17%, 2.76%, and 2.60%, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][30]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.8, 12.5, and 11.3, respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation [3][30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guosen Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has exceeded expectations driven by investment income, with a return on equity (ROE) leading the industry at 12.04% for the first three quarters of 2025, up 5.72 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards to 11.81 billion, 14.54 billion, and 16.84 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44%, 23%, and 16% [6] - The company has completed the acquisition of Wanhua Securities and is engaged in cross-border asset management pilot business in Hainan Free Trade Port [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 19.2 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.1 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 69.4% and 87% respectively [6] - The annualized weighted average ROE for the first three quarters is 12.04%, with a single quarter annualized ROE of 15.2% [6] - The company's brokerage net income for the first three quarters reached 6.4 billion yuan, up 109% year-on-year, with a single quarter net income of 2.8 billion yuan, up 213% year-on-year [7] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest net income, and investment for the first three quarters of 2025 was 6.4 billion, 600 million, 500 million, 1.2 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan respectively [6] - The brokerage and investment segments are identified as the core drivers of revenue growth [6] Market Position and Growth - The company is expected to increase its market share as its brokerage business growth outpaces trading volume, with the average daily trading volume (ADT) for the market reaching 1.96 trillion yuan, up 112% year-on-year [7] - The self-operated investment income for the first three quarters was 9.9 billion yuan, up 74% year-on-year, with an annualized self-operated investment return rate of 5.74% [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.3, 10.0, and 8.6 respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is estimated at 1.48 [6] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.3% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huatai Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a comprehensive strength leading the industry [5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 271 billion and 127 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.6% and 1.7% [5] - The annualized weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.61%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 168 billion, 217 billion, and 251 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 29%, and 16% [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the brokerage business net income increased by 66%, with a single quarter increase of 128% year-on-year [6] - The investment banking business net income for the same period was 19.5 billion yuan, up 44% year-on-year [6] - The asset management business net income was 13.5 billion yuan, down 64% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from AssetMark [6] - The company's self-operated investment income was 100.5 billion yuan, down 15% year-on-year, with a self-operated investment yield of 3.9% [7] - Interest net income for the first three quarters of 2025 was 32.7 billion yuan, up 151% year-on-year, with significant reductions in interest expenses [7] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 11.7, 9.0, and 7.8 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5] - The current PB ratio is 1.14 [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 16,750 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [12]