券商板块2026年1月行情回顾 自营：权益市场明显降温，固收市场低位延续反弹但幅度收窄，自营业务环比将出现明显下滑。经纪： 月度日均股票成交量明显下滑，交易日减少导致月度成交总量降幅更大，经纪业务景气度将出现季节性 较大幅度回落。两融：两融余额环比将出现小幅下滑，但两融业务的业绩贡献度将保持在近12月以来的 高位。投行：受股权融资规模、债权融资规模同步出现较大幅度下滑的影响，预计2月行业投行业务总 量环比将出现较大幅度回落。整体经营业绩：综合目前市场各要素的最新变化，受季节性因素的影响， 预计2026年2月上市券商母公司口径单月整体经营业绩将回落至近12月以来的相对低位。 1月券商指数尝试转强但以失败告终，全月在各行业指数中的表现较为落后，短周期依然延续弱势格 局。中信二级行业指数证券Ⅱ全月下跌1.49%，跑输沪深300指数(上涨1.65%)3.14个百分点。1月券商板 块分化加剧，头部券商显著压制券商指数月度表现，全月跑赢券商指数的个股数量环比显著增多，板块 平均P/B的震荡区间上移至1.426-1.541倍。 (1)权益冲高遇阻、固收温和回暖，自营业务进一步明显回升。(2)月度日均成交量、成交总量均创历史 ...

2月25日，西南证券盘中上涨2.22%，截至10:09，报4.61元/股，成交1.20亿元，换手率0.40%，总市值 306.34亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入430.41万元，特大单买入2676.48万元，占比22.23%，卖出961.32万元， 占比7.99%；大单买入2047.18万元，占比17.01%，卖出3331.93万元，占比27.68%。 截至9月30日，西南证券股东户数11.79万，较上期减少2.91%；人均流通股56347股，较上期增加 8.38%。2025年1月-9月，西南证券实现营业收入25.18亿元，同比增长42.75%；归母净利润7.06亿元，同 比增长46.11%。 分红方面，西南证券A股上市后累计派现72.48亿元。近三年，累计派现11.30亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，西南证券十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股1.45亿股，相比上期增加1346.17万股。国泰中证全指证券公司ETF（512880）位居第九大 流通股东，持股1.03亿股，相比上期增加4151.70万股。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitong Securities has officially been deregistered, marking the end of its 37-year presence in the capital market, which reflects a significant industry restructuring towards high-quality development [1][9]. Company History - Haitong Securities was established in 1988 and became a pioneer in China's capital market, achieving a market capitalization exceeding 300 billion yuan and ranking among the top three in the industry [4][13]. - The company had a strong retail customer base and regional advantages, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta, and developed a diverse financial ecosystem through subsidiaries like Haitong Fund and Haitong Futures [4][13]. Challenges Faced - Since 2020, Haitong Securities faced multiple challenges, including an imbalanced business structure heavily reliant on brokerage services, which accounted for 42% of its revenue in 2023 [5][14]. - Compliance risks became a significant burden, with the company facing penalties exceeding 500 million yuan due to violations in asset management products and a three-month suspension of its investment banking business in 2021 [5][14]. - The international expansion efforts were unsuccessful, leading to continuous losses in overseas operations, including a significant loss of 1.8 billion yuan in 2023 from its European subsidiary [5][14]. - Financial performance deteriorated, with a 27% year-on-year decline in net profit to 6.5 billion yuan in 2023 and a return on equity (ROE) of 4.8%, below the industry average of 7.2% [5][14]. Merger and Integration - In September 2024, a merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities was announced, completing the integration by March 2025, resulting in the establishment of Guotai Haitong Securities [7][15]. - The merger created a new industry giant with total assets of 1.8 trillion yuan, enhancing market share in brokerage services to 7.5% and placing investment banking among the top three in the industry [8][16]. - The combined entity benefits from over 6 million retail clients from Haitong and institutional advantages from Guotai Junan, leading to significant scale effects and synergies [8][16]. Industry Context - The dissolution of Haitong Securities signifies a broader trend in the capital market towards high-quality development and the ongoing reshaping of the industry, emphasizing the "survival of the fittest" among brokerage firms [9][17].

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities has shown a mixed performance in terms of financing activities and profitability, with a notable increase in net profit despite a slight decline in revenue [2][3]. Financing Activities - On February 3, Western Securities had a financing buy-in amount of 19.27 million yuan and a financing repayment of 27.96 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of -8.69 million yuan [1]. - The total financing and securities lending balance as of February 3 is 1.706 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 1.703 billion yuan, accounting for 4.85% of the circulating market value, which is below the 20% percentile level over the past year [1]. - In terms of securities lending, 2,400 shares were repaid and 4,700 shares were sold on February 3, with a selling amount of 36,900 yuan, and the securities lending balance is 3.0262 million yuan, also below the 10% percentile level over the past year [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Western Securities reported an operating income of 4.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.17%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 70.63% to 1.243 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Western Securities has distributed a total of 4.598 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.202 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Western Securities is 185,800, a decrease of 3.32% from the previous period, with an average of 22,118 circulating shares per person, an increase of 3.44% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the Guotai CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF ranks as the fourth largest with 69.3135 million shares, an increase of 27.9326 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is intensifying its regulatory scrutiny on brokerage firms, maintaining a high-pressure stance against illegal activities in the capital market, with a focus on ensuring long-term healthy development [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - In January, 14 brokerage firms and their branches received regulatory penalties, primarily related to margin trading, brokerage, and investment banking violations [1]. - Jianghai Securities, Financial Street Securities, and Xinda Securities were among the firms that received the most penalties [1]. - The regulatory crackdown is seen as beneficial for the long-term health of the capital market [1]. Group 2: Specific Violations - Brokerage firms faced the highest number of penalties in the brokerage business sector, with Jianghai Securities' Harbin Hongjun Street branch receiving warnings for inadequate compliance in client follow-up and management issues [2]. - Jianghai Securities was also penalized for third-party involvement in investor solicitation and for employing unqualified personnel in securities-related roles [2]. - Other firms like Hualin Securities and Zheshang Securities were penalized for issues related to complaint handling and compliance in transaction audits, respectively [3]. Group 3: Margin Trading and Investment Banking Violations - Margin trading violations have drawn regulatory attention, with Xinda Securities' Wenzhou branch penalized for insufficient control measures and failure to monitor abnormal trading behaviors [4]. - Jinyuan Unified Securities was the only firm penalized for investment banking violations, failing to fulfill its supervisory duties regarding a client’s compliance and information disclosure [4]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued warnings to sponsors from China International Capital Corporation for inadequate due diligence in an IPO project [5]. Group 4: Overall Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment for the securities industry has become increasingly stringent, with over 300 penalties issued last year affecting nearly 80 brokerage firms, particularly in the brokerage business sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by active capital markets and robust growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Major Securities Firms - 21 listed securities firms have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, showing overall positive growth in net profits [2]. - CITIC Securities is projected to achieve over 30 billion yuan in net profit, with a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan, marking a 28.75% year-on-year increase [2]. - Guotai Junan expects a net profit between 27.53 billion yuan and 28.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111% to 115% [2]. - Other notable firms include招商证券 with a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan (up 18.43%), and申万宏源 with a projected net profit of 9.1 billion to 10.1 billion yuan (up 74.64% to 93.83%) [2]. Group 2: Performance of Small and Medium-sized Securities Firms - Smaller firms like国联民生 anticipate a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, representing a significant year-on-year growth of approximately 406% [3]. -天风证券 expects to turn a profit with a net profit forecast of 12.5 million to 18.5 million yuan [3]. - Other small firms such as长江证券 and中原证券 are also expected to see net profit increases exceeding 100% and 50%, respectively [3]. Group 3: Drivers of Growth - The growth in performance is attributed to the active capital market, with wealth management, proprietary trading, and asset management businesses benefiting significantly [3]. - Guotai Haitong noted a substantial increase in income from wealth management and institutional trading due to the rising activity in the domestic capital market [3]. - CITIC Securities reported rapid growth across brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading revenues [3]. Group 4: Investment Value of the Sector - The non-bank financial sector has seen a decline of 1.59% as of January 30, but analysts believe that the valuation of securities firms is at a historically low level, enhancing their investment appeal [4]. - The sector is entering a golden window for valuation and performance recovery, driven by favorable policies and an improving market environment [5]. - Analysts suggest focusing on three investment themes: strong comprehensive capabilities of leading firms, firms with significant performance elasticity, and those with strong international business competitiveness [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [5]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to achieve a 47% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with projected revenues of 586.8 billion yuan and a main revenue of 570.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% increase [1][3]. - The report highlights a trend of asset rebalancing between light and heavy assets within the brokerage sector, which is crucial for future performance [1]. - The investment environment for Q4 2025 is anticipated to be less favorable compared to the first three quarters of 2025, with a projected decline in investment income [2]. Revenue and Profit Projections - For 2025, the brokerage sector is projected to generate total revenues of 586.8 billion yuan, with a main revenue of 570.4 billion yuan, marking a 37% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 217.7 billion yuan, representing a 47% increase year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q4 2025, the sector is expected to achieve revenues of 167.2 billion yuan, with a main revenue of 158.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase [3]. Brokerage Business Performance - The average daily trading volume in the stock market for Q4 2025 is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][6]. - The average daily margin trading balance is expected to reach 2.49 trillion yuan, showing a 40% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - New account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in Q4 2025 are projected to be 7.288 million, a decrease of 37% year-on-year [2]. Investment Banking and Asset Management - The report indicates a recovery in equity business under low base conditions, with Q4 2025 IPO issuance expected to reach 54.9 billion yuan, a 165% increase year-on-year [2][6]. - The asset management business is projected to see a revenue increase of 25% year-on-year, with expected revenues of 14.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025 [2][6]. - The public fund market is expected to grow, with the non-money market fund size reaching 21.9 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year [2][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three investment themes: 1. Strong comprehensive capabilities of leading institutions such as Guotai Junan and GF Securities 2. Brokerages with significant earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities 3. Companies with strong international business capabilities, such as China Galaxy [5].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·证券ⅡII 国泰海通（601211） 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 何婷 执业证书：S0600524120009 heting@dwzq.com.cn 2025 年业绩预增点评：扣非净利润同比增长 69-73%，低估值向上空间大 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36,141 | 43,397 | 54,733 | 67,286 | 70,996 | | 同比（%） | 1.89% | 20.08% | 26.12% | 22.93% | 5.51% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,374 | 13,024 | 27,747 | 28,169 | 30,429 | | 同比（%） | -18.54% | 38.94% | 113.04% | 1.52% | 8.02% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotai Haitong is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Guotai Haitong announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.5-28 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 111%-115%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be 21.1-21.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69%-73% [2] - The profit growth in 2025 is primarily driven by brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading businesses [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 54.733 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 27.747 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 113.04% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 1.57 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 12.29 [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to see a non-recurring net profit of 4.8-5.2 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 42-47% due to high base effects and a 1.6 billion yuan impairment provision [2]

同壁财经讯，企查查数据显示，根据《关于杭州上城区城市建设发展集团有限公司2026年非公开发行公 司债券主承销商选聘项目（重新招标）的中标公告》，东方证券股份有限公司于2026年1月26日公告中 标杭州上城区城市建设发展集团有限公司采购项目，中标金额为133.50万元。 相关上市公司：东方证券(600958.SH) 同壁财经小贴士： 东方证券（600958.SH）2024年营业收入为191.90亿元，营业收入增长率为12.29%，归属母公司净利润 为33.50亿元，归属母公司净利润增长率为21.66%，净资产收益率为4.14%。 2025年上半年公司营业收入为80.01亿元，营业收入增长率为38.87%，归属母公司净利润为34.63亿元， 归属母公司净利润增长率为64.02%。 同壁财经讯，企查查数据显示，根据《关于杭州上城区城市建设发展集团有限公司2026年非公开发行公 司债券主承销商选聘项目（重新招标）的中标公告》，东方证券股份有限公司于2026年1月26日公告中 标杭州上城区城市建设发展集团有限公司采购项目，中标金额为133.50万元。 相关上市公司：东方证券(600958.SH) 同壁财经小贴士： 东方 ...