Core Viewpoint - The first quarter of 2026 is critical for assessing the "inventory return—leasing rate decline—spot tightness alleviation" chain, which will influence platinum prices moving forward [1][13]. Group 1: Price Trends and Drivers - In 2025, NYMEX platinum futures prices rose significantly, ending the year at $2070 per ounce, marking an approximate 127% increase [2]. - The substantial rise in platinum prices in 2025 was driven by a structurally tight supply, cross-regional inventory migration, and favorable macroeconomic conditions [4]. - The global platinum market experienced a supply deficit of 692,000 ounces in 2025, approximately 9% of the annual demand, with total supply decreasing by 2% to 7.129 million ounces [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for platinum in 2026 is expected to decline by 6% to 7.385 million ounces, primarily due to a significant drop in investment demand, which is projected to decrease by 52% [10][11]. - The supply side is anticipated to see a slight surplus of about 20,000 ounces in 2026, with total supply expected to grow by 4% [9]. - The recovery of recycling supply is crucial for meeting demand, with a projected 10% increase in recycled platinum supply in 2026 [9]. Group 3: Market Sensitivity and Risks - The high concentration of platinum supply in regions like South Africa poses risks, as disruptions in power, labor relations, or geopolitical issues could impact prices through increased leasing rates and reduced available metal [10]. - The sensitivity of prices to policy uncertainties and delivery chain disruptions remains high, particularly if inventory returns are slow or leasing rates remain elevated [13]. - The first quarter of 2026 will be pivotal in determining whether the market can stabilize, with potential for price fluctuations based on inventory and leasing rate dynamics [1][13].