以下文章来源于capitalwatch ，作者全球宏观策略报告 capitalwatch . 我们是一个聚焦全球资本市场的高影响力财经账号。 内容由华尔街交易员与研究员共同撰写，提供市场深度解读、机构级逻辑与实时判断。 这里没有喊 单，没有套路，只有用数据和常识说话的分析。 我们希望把复杂的金融世界，讲给真正关心自己资产的人听。 导语：实物白银正在成为最稀缺的硬通货。 如果有人告诉你，为了现在立刻拿到一块银条，你需要额外支付比期货价格高出7%的"加急费"，你会怎么想？ 这听起来像是战乱年代才会发生的故事，但这正是2025年12月全球金融市场上演的真实一幕。 这不是一次普通的各种资产价格波动，这是一个刺耳的警报—— 华尔街的"纸面承诺"正在崩塌，实物白银正在成为最稀缺的硬通货。 今天，我们带您穿透噪音，通过五张关键图表，看清这场史诗级逼空背后的真相。 信任的崩塌 一切的起点，在这张图表里。 这意味着，市场上的大买家们为了规避12个月后拿不到货的风险，宁愿现在"倒贴"7%的利息，也要把实物拿到手。 这在金融学上叫"现货溢价"（Backwardation），用通俗的话说就是： 大家不再相信银行"提货单"， 只有手里 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum group metal prices are strong following the rise in gold and silver prices, but there is a risk of a short - term pullback. The prices of platinum and palladium have increased this month, but the driving force of the spot market has weakened, and the tight overseas spot pattern has eased. With the ETF holdings showing mediocre performance, attention should be paid to the price decline risk when the trading enthusiasm in the precious metal sector fades. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see approach for platinum and palladium currently [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Movements**: NYMEX platinum price rose 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce this month. The platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have also seen price increases since their listing on November 27 [10][21][24] - **Implied Lease Rates**: The one - month implied lease rates of platinum and palladium have declined, indicating a relief in the tight overseas spot situation. The platinum one - month implied lease rate dropped from 24.1% on November 4 to 15.03% on December 4, and that of palladium fell from 11.71% to 6.89% [10] - **ETF Holdings**: Overseas major platinum ETF total holdings decreased from 76.04 tons to 75.88 tons this month, while palladium ETF total holdings remained around 14.8 tons [10] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market expects an 84.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the December meeting, and a 15.2% probability of keeping the rate unchanged. The easing expectation has been almost fully priced, and there is a risk of a decline in precious metal prices [10] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum and Palladium Prices**: NYMEX platinum price increased by 5.16% to $1,660.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's main contract price rose by 1.12% to $1,483.5 per ounce. The domestic platinum and palladium futures prices also had small increases [21][24] - **Domestic Platinum Premium**: Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the domestic platinum premium has significantly rebounded. As of December 4, the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price was 434.2 yuan/gram [27] - **Lease Rates**: As of December 4, the platinum and palladium one - month implied lease rates were at the highest levels in the same period of the past five years but showed obvious weakening signs in the short term [31] - **CFTC Positions**: The CFTC positions of platinum and palladium have not been updated to the latest reporting period [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **ETF Holdings**: As of December 4, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 75.87 tons, and those of palladium ETFs were 14.8 tons [50][53] - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 4, the CME platinum inventory was 19.14 tons [57] - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory as of December 4 was 5,362 kilograms, with a decrease of 25.93 kilograms compared to November 25 [62][63] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [67][68] - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium output of the top 15 global mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [70][71] - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in October were 10.23 tons, showing a decline from September, and palladium imports in October were 3.1 tons, a significant drop from September [74][77] - **Automobile Production**: The report presents data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US, but no clear conclusion is drawn from these data [79][82][85] - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand deficit of 14.29 tons in 2025, and the palladium market is expected to have a supply - demand surplus of 3.5 tons [88][89] 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads of NYMEX platinum [93][97] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: The report shows the 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads of NYMEX palladium [106][102] - **London - NYMEX Spreads**: The report provides the spreads between London spot platinum and palladium prices and NYMEX prices [108]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum group metal prices are expected to be supported in the short - term following gold and silver prices, and the lease rates indicate that the fundamentals of platinum group metals remain strong. The prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and it is necessary to observe whether the Fed will form new monetary policy drivers in December [9] - NYMEX platinum is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile pattern, with limited further downward space. NYMEX palladium is expected to maintain a weak volatile pattern, and the probability of a strong performance in the short - term is low [12][15] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum's active - contract closing price fell 2.25% to $1,523.4 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's active - contract closing price fell 2.16% to $1,384.5 per ounce this week [9] - **Policy Impact**: After New York Fed President Williams' dovish speech, the market's probability pricing for a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting rose to 70%. Platinum prices were supported at the $1,480 per ounce level [9] - **Lease Rates**: As of November 21, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum was 14.72%, and for palladium was 10.73%, both at the highest levels in the same period of the past five years [9] - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 21, CME platinum inventory was 19.12 tons, and palladium inventory was 5.39 tons, both at relatively high levels in recent years [9] 3.2. Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX platinum's active - contract price fell 2.25% to $1,523.4 per ounce, and the total position as of October 7 was 70,090 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price was 399.32 yuan per gram, and the domestic platinum premium significantly rebounded due to the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy [21][25] - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX palladium's active - contract price fell 2.16% to $1,384.5 per ounce, and the total position as of October 7 was 22,771 lots [22] - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the reporting period on October 7, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long position was 18,487 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short position was 4,063 lots [34][37] 3.3. Inventory and ETF Position Changes - **Platinum**: As of November 21, the total platinum ETF position was 75.38 tons, and CME platinum inventory was 19.19 tons [48][55] - **Palladium**: As of November 21, the total palladium ETF position was 14.75 tons, and CME palladium inventory was 5,387.88 kilograms [51][60] 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The output in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 33.18 tons [66] - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024. The output in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be 41.36 tons [69] - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in September were 10.7 tons, showing a rebound from August. China's palladium imports in September were 6.5 tons, showing a significant increase from August [72][75] 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant data on NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [91] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant data on NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [103] - **London Spot - NYMEX Spread**: The spreads between London spot platinum and palladium prices and NYMEX prices are presented [105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of platinum group metals was weak due to the decline in precious metal prices. However, high lease rates and the continuous release of expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates will strongly support the subsequent trends of platinum and palladium prices [3]. - As CME inventories accumulate, lease rates indicate a tightening of overseas platinum group metal spot markets. The market expects the Fed to continue a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the upcoming meeting, which is expected to support platinum group metal prices at high levels [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum主力合约价格本周下跌2.13%至1595.1美元/盎司，NYMEX钯金主力合约价格下跌3.79%至1458.5美元/盎司 [3]. - **Inventory and ETF Changes**: From September 24 to October 24, CME platinum inventory increased from 18.96 tons to 20.845 tons, and CME palladium inventory increased from 5.09 tons to 5.49 tons. The total holdings of platinum group metal ETFs that lock in spot goods have rebounded [3]. - **Lease Rates**: As of October 24, the one - month implied lease rate for overseas platinum spot reached 31.87%, and that for palladium spot reached 18.56%, both at multi - year highs [3]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX铂金主力合约价格本周下跌2.13%至1595.1美元/盎司，总持仓截至9月23日为97978手。上海金交所铂金现货价格截至10月24日为396.2元/克 [18][21][25]. - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX钯金主力合约价格下跌3.79%至1458.5美元/盎司，总持仓量截至最新报告期为20282手 [22]. - **Lease Rates**: As of October 24, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum rose to 31.87%, and that for palladium was 18.56%, both showing significant increases [29]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the latest reporting period on September 23, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 3638 hands to 18285 hands, and the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 5176 hands [32][35]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **ETF Holdings**: As of October 24, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 76.43 tons, and the total holdings of palladium ETFs were 14.84 tons [46][49]. - **Platinum Inventory**: As of October 24, CME platinum inventory was 20.85 tons, with a decrease in registered inventory and an increase in unregistered inventory [53]. - **Palladium Inventory**: As of October 24, CME palladium inventory was 5497.03 kilograms, with a decrease in total inventory mainly due to a decrease in unregistered inventory [58]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The platinum production forecast of the top 15 mines shows that the platinum production in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024 [64]. - **Palladium Supply**: The total production of the top 15 palladium mines in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons. In 2025, the annual production of the top 15 mines will slightly contract, with a 0.86% decrease to 165.78 tons [67]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in September were 10.7 tons, showing a rebound from August. China's palladium imports in September were 6.5 tons, showing a significant increase from August [70][73]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Presented NYMEX铂金1 - 4价差、4 - 7价差、7 - 10价差和10 - 1价差的相关数据 [89][90]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Presented NYMEX钯金3 - 6价差、6 - 9价差、9 - 12价差和12 - 3价差的相关数据 [102][98]. - **London Spot and NYMEX Spreads**: Presented the spreads between London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, and between London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price [104].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, with spot prices reaching $39 per ounce and futures prices breaking through $39, marking a 14-year high and a year-to-date increase of over 35% [2][6] Group 1: Price Movements - On July 11, silver spot prices rose by 3.77%, while Comex silver futures increased by 4.74%, with both reaching new highs [2] - Year-to-date, silver has outperformed gold, with silver's increase surpassing 35% compared to gold's 26% [2] - Domestic futures in China saw the main contract rise over 22% from 7506 yuan per kilogram to 9267 yuan per kilogram, setting a record since its listing [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a similar phenomenon observed in the gold market earlier this year, characterized by a high leverage ratio in the silver market, with physical silver corresponding to 250-400 times paper silver [2][6] - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported that the total freely available silver has dropped to record lows, indicating a precarious situation [6][7] Group 3: Supply and Demand - The silver market is facing a supply-demand gap, with global demand projected to reach 36,700 tons in 2024, while supply is only 31,700 tons, resulting in a shortfall of 5,000 tons [9] - The increasing use of silver in electric vehicles and solar panels is expected to exacerbate this supply-demand imbalance [9] Group 4: Market Indicators - The premium between New York futures silver and London spot silver has exceeded 50 cents, indicating potential market dislocation [7] - The one-month leasing rate for London spot silver has surged from near zero to 4.5%, mirroring trends seen during the earlier gold market turmoil [7]