1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to high gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, a decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing index, increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and rising risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday as a correction of the previous decline. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak copper demand [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Alumina prices are likely to be weak in the short term, while casting aluminum alloy shows good fundamentals [36]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a range - bound movement, with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disruptions [65]. - For the nickel industry, the nickel ore price is stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation. Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the future trend of nickel sulfate needs further attention [80]. - Tin prices have strong resilience. Supply - side issues remain unresolved, and if the situation drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange - related warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered as deliverable goods, doubling from last month, indicating active arbitrage and strong investment demand [3]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut (90% probability of a rate cut in September). Trump's announcement of tariff hikes on countries like India also boosted risk - aversion sentiment, leading to an increase in the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF for two consecutive days, supporting the strong performance of gold prices [3]. Copper - Copper prices corrected the previous decline on Monday and Tuesday. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized, and COMEX copper's decline may slightly increase the valuations of other copper markets. However, weak copper demand remains a concern [15]. - The latest prices and daily changes of various copper futures and spot products are provided, including Shanghai copper futures, LME copper, and copper spot prices in different regions [16][24]. - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, refined - scrap price differences, and warehouse receipt data are presented [28][31][32]. Aluminum - Macro - level drivers for aluminum have weakened. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but low absolute inventories support aluminum prices, which are expected to face pressure and fluctuate [36]. - Alumina production capacity is high and in surplus, with rising inventories. The warehouse receipt issue may be resolved in August, and prices are likely to be weak [36]. - Casting aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, with strong support from scrap aluminum prices on the supply side and decent short - term demand [36]. Zinc - Zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and processing fees are expected to increase this month. Mine supply is abundant, and inventories have been accumulating. Demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to remain range - bound [65]. - The latest prices and changes of zinc futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [66][71][74]. Nickel - The August first - phase nickel product benchmark price in Indonesia has been released. Nickel ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation [80]. - Nickel iron prices have been slowly declining in the past two weeks, with some support from the supply side due to the expected increase in steel mill production in August [80]. - Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the stability of the current price level needs further verification. Attention should be paid to whether demand can pick up in August [80]. Tin - Tin prices rose slightly on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues from Myanmar's production resumption are uncertain, and if the situation persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - The latest prices and changes of tin futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [97][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term supply - side disruptions exist, and production scheduling in August is expected to improve. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - The latest prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [113][115][119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by macro - level sentiment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [121]. - The latest prices of industrial silicon spot products, futures prices, and related data such as basis and price differences are provided [122][124].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are likely to remain high or continue to rise in the future, with a low probability of significant short-term declines, but potential risks such as persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions should be monitored [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, aimed at diversifying foreign reserves and reducing dependence on the US dollar [5]. - China, as the largest identifiable buyer, has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months as of 2025, with some central bank purchases remaining undisclosed, providing implicit support [5]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Historical trends indicate that gold prices tend to rise rapidly during escalations in geopolitical conflicts, with limited pullbacks [5]. - Investment demand is recovering, with significant net inflows into gold ETFs in Q1 2025, suggesting renewed interest from Western institutions and individual investors [5]. - Strong physical gold demand in China saw a nearly 30% increase in Q1 2025, driven by its investment attributes [5]. - Supply growth is slow, with mining output struggling to increase and rising costs, while old gold recycling has slightly decreased year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]. Group 2: Future Price Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario: Gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing central bank purchases, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts [5]. - Target price: Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce (approximately 930 yuan per gram) by mid-2026, nearing the 1,000 yuan per gram target [5]. - Neutral Scenario: Gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations driven by persistent inflation pressures, high interest rates, and stable investment demand without significant growth [5]. - Price range: International gold prices may fluctuate between $3,000 and $3,500 per ounce (approximately 700-820 yuan per gram) [5]. Group 3: Potential Downside Risks - Persistent inflation above expectations could lead the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or even raise rates, diminishing gold's attractiveness [5]. - A significant reduction in geopolitical tensions could weaken safe-haven demand, potentially leading to a price pullback [5]. - A strengthening US dollar due to better-than-expected economic recovery in the US or recession in other regions could pressure gold prices [5]. - A slowdown in central bank gold purchases or reductions in holdings by some countries could undermine market confidence [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Long-term allocation: Gold is recommended as a part of an asset portfolio, with a suggested allocation of 5%-15% [5]. - Short-term trading: Investors should monitor key events related to geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and inflation data to adjust positions flexibly [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with a strong performance across nearly all non-ferrous metals, driven by investment demand and market conditions [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, reaching a 14-year high [2][4]. - Investment in silver products, such as silver bars and coins, has surged, leading to a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3][4]. - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for silver and platinum, projecting silver to reach $40 per ounce in the next three months and $43 in the next 6-12 months [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries, with a year-to-date increase of 19.54%, leading all 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification [3][6]. - The demand for silver is primarily driven by investment, which has a positive correlation with silver prices, indicating a significant "amplifying" effect during a silver bull market [5]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further increase demand for gold, potentially raising its price by 10%-15% [4]. Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Market - All sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metals industry have experienced price increases, with the precious metals sector leading at a 36.74% rise [6][7]. - The energy metals sector has seen a 12.69% increase, while the industrial metals sector has risen by 16.78% [7]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of considering long-term supply chain and national defense needs in the context of political risk premiums affecting strategic metals [7].

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The contribution rates of the three industries to economic growth were 3.6% for the primary industry, 36.2% for the secondary industry, and 60.2% for the tertiary industry [2] Industry Performance - The industrial production showed a robust growth with an industrial added value increase of 6.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.9 percentage points to economic growth [3][4] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.6%, contributing 1.7 percentage points to economic growth [3] - The service sector, particularly information transmission, software, and IT services, saw significant growth with added values increasing by 11.1% and 9.6% respectively, contributing a total of 1.0 percentage point to economic growth [3] Domestic Demand - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points [5] - Investment demand showed a steady increase, with total capital formation contributing 16.8% to economic growth, adding 0.9 percentage points to GDP [5] - Net exports maintained a stable growth trend, contributing 31.2% to economic growth, which added 1.7 percentage points to GDP [5] New Economic Drivers - The digital economy is gaining momentum, with the revenue of large-scale information transmission, software, and IT service enterprises growing by 11.4% from January to May, outperforming the overall service sector by 3.3 percentage points [6] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw added value growth of 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, exceeding the overall industrial growth rates [7] - High-quality investments in equipment manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 7.5% and 8.6% respectively, indicating a focus on optimizing and upgrading industries [7]

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing a volatile phase, with Shanghai gold TD prices slightly down by 0.10% to 770.8 CNY per gram, indicating a potential turning point after a sustained upward trend [1] - Citibank's report suggests that the significant rise in gold prices has been driven by diminishing safe-haven demand, predicting that the current bull market may be nearing its end [2][3] - Central bank gold purchases dropped by 33% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in buying even from major consumers like China [3] Group 2 - The influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on gold prices is critical, as rising real interest rates could diminish gold's appeal, especially if inflation remains high [3] - The large-scale economic stimulus plan proposed in the U.S. budget for 2025 may negatively impact gold prices by shifting investor focus towards riskier assets like stocks [3] - India and China account for over 60% of global gold jewelry demand, and their sensitivity to price changes could lead to decreased purchases if gold prices remain high [4] Group 3 - Brand gold prices in retail stores on July 7, 2025, range from 982 to 1006 CNY per gram, reflecting slight variations among different brands [5] - Financial institutions and manufacturers show a range of gold bar prices from 634 to 816 CNY per gram, influenced by brand premiums and production costs [6] - The current market conditions suggest a critical turning point for gold prices, with reduced safe-haven demand and investment enthusiasm indicating potential downward pressure [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup predicts a potential turning point for the historically rising gold prices, warning that gold prices may drop below the psychological threshold of $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, signaling the end of the current commodity market rally [1][3] - The analysis team led by Max Layton indicates that by the second half of 2026, international gold prices may return to the range of $2500 to $2700, driven by multiple factors creating downward pressure, including a decline in investment demand as risk aversion diminishes and a gradual improvement in global economic growth expectations [3] - The report highlights that the core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices were geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a 30% increase attributed to market volatility from the Trump administration's trade policies and escalating Middle East tensions [3] Group 2 - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $3396, with Citigroup providing a 60% probability forecast that gold prices will fluctuate above $3000 in the next quarter before entering a correction phase, reflecting a reassessment of the global economic outlook [4] - The anticipated value correction in the gold market is expected to test investors' risk appetite and indicates a significant turning point as the interplay between risk demand and policy expectations evolves [4] - The report warns that the supportive factors for gold prices, such as concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, are undergoing qualitative changes, particularly as the 2025 U.S. midterm elections approach [3]

Group 1 - Li Ka-shing's company, CK Hutchison, announced the sale of its global port assets to a consortium led by BlackRock, covering 43 ports across 23 countries, including a 90% stake in the Panama Port Company [4] - The Hong Kong Chief Executive, John Lee, emphasized the importance of providing a fair environment for local businesses and stated that any transaction must comply with legal regulations [4] - The sale has sparked criticism, with some commentators suggesting it reflects a lack of national loyalty among Hong Kong businessmen [5] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group reported a record revenue of 365.9 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024, marking a 35% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 23.6 billion RMB, up 34.9% [9][11] - The fourth quarter revenue reached 109 billion RMB, a significant 48.8% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit rising by 69.4% to 8.3 billion RMB [14] - Xiaomi's electric vehicle business showed strong performance, delivering 136,854 units in 2024, with a revenue contribution of 32.8 billion RMB [15] Group 3 - Gold prices surged, breaking the 3,030 USD per ounce mark, driven by inflation concerns and increased investment demand [19][20] - The domestic gold market also saw significant activity, with A-share gold stocks rising by 4.67% in a single day, reflecting strong market sentiment [20] - Analysts attribute the rising gold prices to ongoing inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and changing expectations for global economic growth [20] Group 4 - Some banks in China have reduced consumer loan rates to as low as 2.49%, indicating a downward trend in personal loan interest rates [22] - The competitive landscape for consumer loans has intensified, with several banks offering promotional rates and incentives to attract borrowers [22] - Regulatory encouragement for banks to increase personal loan offerings is expected to create new growth opportunities while emphasizing the need for effective risk management [22]