事 件 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 降息预期叠加避险需求增加，国际金价突破 4000 美元大关 有色金属行业事件点评 | 事 件 点 评 标配（维持） 4000 美元大关 | 有色金属行业 降息预期叠加避险需求增加，国际金价突破 有色金属行业事件点评 | | --- | --- | | 分析师：许正堃（SAC 2025 年 10 月 9 日 | 执业证书编号：S0340523120001） | | 电话：0769-23320072 | 邮箱：xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn | 事件： 截至10月8日，COMEX黄金期货价格收于4030美元/盎司，伦敦现货黄金价格收于4040.05美元/盎 司，均突破每盎司4000美元大关。 图 1：COMEX 黄金期货收盘价（美元/盎司） 图 2：伦敦现货黄金价格（美元/盎司） 资料来源：iFind，CME，东莞证券研究所 资料来源：iFind，伦敦金银市场协会，东莞证券研究所 点评： 研 究 报 告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 美联储10月降 ...

金银比翼同飞之际，以大宗商品全球主管马克西米利安·莱顿（Maximilian Layton）为首的花旗策略师团 队预测："在美联储新鸽派领导层在2026年5~6月上任的前景、美国实际利率下降及美元承压的推动下， 黄金和白银的牛市行情将进一步扩大，并最终在2026年延伸至铜和铝领域。" 金价再创新高，开启长牛模式 23日，金价涨至3790美元/盎司，此前两个交易日连续上涨。 本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑是市场对美联储将进一步降息的强烈预期。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔仍 强调未来降息路径将保持谨慎，但市场仍预计美联储未来将大幅降息。 瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究主管曼克（Carsten Menke）在本次降息前后对一财记者表示，过去几周，货 币政策无疑是投资需求增加的主要推动力，短线交易员与市场跟风者担心自己会错过这一波上涨，进一 步推动了投资需求的增长。同时，美国经济正显示出明显的降温迹象，提高了市场对美国降息和美元走 软的预期。由于美国总统特朗普持续施加压力，市场担心美联储的独立性。此外，除了投资需求增加的 强劲支撑外，我们预计在当前的季节性疲软之后，央行将重新加强购买。因此，我们坚持对黄金持建设 性看法。 美联储上周 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance and investment trends in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) which experienced a market pullback but saw significant net subscriptions [1] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 181 million yuan in the past 20 days, reaching a historical high of 281 million yuan as of September 15 [1] - Key component stocks such as China Rare Earth, Huaxi Nonferrous, and others have seen declines exceeding 5%, negatively impacting the index performance, while stocks like Lichung Group and Baowu Magnesium have shown positive performance [1] Group 2 - On September 15, spot gold closed at a historical high of $3678.89 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in global financial asset pricing, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to boost non-ferrous metal prices by increasing the attractiveness of physical assets, depreciating the dollar, and lowering borrowing costs for companies, which could enhance demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4] - The current market dynamics suggest a tight supply-demand balance for industrial metals, with emerging industry demands and limited supply growth contributing to price stability [4] Group 3 - The strategic importance of rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is emphasized due to their benefits from global geopolitical dynamics [4] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to positively influence the lithium, cobalt, and aluminum sectors, leading to a valuation recovery in these areas [4] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the performance of the non-ferrous metal index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, and gold, thus providing risk diversification for investors [4]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 3 saw more declines than increases, with the main contract for eggs rising over 2% and the main contracts for gold and styrene rising over 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1440.74 points, up 2.81 points or 0.20% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1990.16 points, up 3.88 points or 0.20% [1] Group 2: Egg Market Analysis - The main contract for eggs led the market with a 2.62% increase, closing above the 3000 yuan/500 kg mark, driven by increased demand due to the back-to-school season and Mid-Autumn Festival preparations [2] - Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that the pressure on egg prices may persist due to limited culling of hens and high inventory levels of laying hens [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold has emerged as a star in the commodity market, with New York futures prices reaching historic highs above $3600 per ounce, and domestic gold prices also rising [3] - The main contract for gold in Shanghai reached a high of 816.78 yuan/kg before closing with a 1.31% increase, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market Trends - Lithium carbonate has seen a continuous decline for seven trading days, with a drop of 3.10% on September 3, attributed to a weak overall supply-demand structure [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton from the previous working day, as market sentiment turns cautious amid high production levels of spodumene [4] Group 5: Shipping Market Dynamics - The shipping market for European routes is experiencing downward pressure, with the main contract declining by 3.04% due to weak spot market conditions [5] - The Maersk 38-week opening price was quoted at $1700/FEU, reflecting a decrease of $200 from the previous week, indicating ongoing pressure in the spot market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to high gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, a decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing index, increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and rising risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday as a correction of the previous decline. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak copper demand [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Alumina prices are likely to be weak in the short term, while casting aluminum alloy shows good fundamentals [36]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a range - bound movement, with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disruptions [65]. - For the nickel industry, the nickel ore price is stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation. Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the future trend of nickel sulfate needs further attention [80]. - Tin prices have strong resilience. Supply - side issues remain unresolved, and if the situation drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange - related warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered as deliverable goods, doubling from last month, indicating active arbitrage and strong investment demand [3]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut (90% probability of a rate cut in September). Trump's announcement of tariff hikes on countries like India also boosted risk - aversion sentiment, leading to an increase in the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF for two consecutive days, supporting the strong performance of gold prices [3]. Copper - Copper prices corrected the previous decline on Monday and Tuesday. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized, and COMEX copper's decline may slightly increase the valuations of other copper markets. However, weak copper demand remains a concern [15]. - The latest prices and daily changes of various copper futures and spot products are provided, including Shanghai copper futures, LME copper, and copper spot prices in different regions [16][24]. - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, refined - scrap price differences, and warehouse receipt data are presented [28][31][32]. Aluminum - Macro - level drivers for aluminum have weakened. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but low absolute inventories support aluminum prices, which are expected to face pressure and fluctuate [36]. - Alumina production capacity is high and in surplus, with rising inventories. The warehouse receipt issue may be resolved in August, and prices are likely to be weak [36]. - Casting aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, with strong support from scrap aluminum prices on the supply side and decent short - term demand [36]. Zinc - Zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and processing fees are expected to increase this month. Mine supply is abundant, and inventories have been accumulating. Demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to remain range - bound [65]. - The latest prices and changes of zinc futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [66][71][74]. Nickel - The August first - phase nickel product benchmark price in Indonesia has been released. Nickel ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation [80]. - Nickel iron prices have been slowly declining in the past two weeks, with some support from the supply side due to the expected increase in steel mill production in August [80]. - Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the stability of the current price level needs further verification. Attention should be paid to whether demand can pick up in August [80]. Tin - Tin prices rose slightly on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues from Myanmar's production resumption are uncertain, and if the situation persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - The latest prices and changes of tin futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [97][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term supply - side disruptions exist, and production scheduling in August is expected to improve. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - The latest prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [113][115][119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by macro - level sentiment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [121]. - The latest prices of industrial silicon spot products, futures prices, and related data such as basis and price differences are provided [122][124].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are likely to remain high or continue to rise in the future, with a low probability of significant short-term declines, but potential risks such as persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions should be monitored [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, aimed at diversifying foreign reserves and reducing dependence on the US dollar [5]. - China, as the largest identifiable buyer, has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months as of 2025, with some central bank purchases remaining undisclosed, providing implicit support [5]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Historical trends indicate that gold prices tend to rise rapidly during escalations in geopolitical conflicts, with limited pullbacks [5]. - Investment demand is recovering, with significant net inflows into gold ETFs in Q1 2025, suggesting renewed interest from Western institutions and individual investors [5]. - Strong physical gold demand in China saw a nearly 30% increase in Q1 2025, driven by its investment attributes [5]. - Supply growth is slow, with mining output struggling to increase and rising costs, while old gold recycling has slightly decreased year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]. Group 2: Future Price Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario: Gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing central bank purchases, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts [5]. - Target price: Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce (approximately 930 yuan per gram) by mid-2026, nearing the 1,000 yuan per gram target [5]. - Neutral Scenario: Gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations driven by persistent inflation pressures, high interest rates, and stable investment demand without significant growth [5]. - Price range: International gold prices may fluctuate between $3,000 and $3,500 per ounce (approximately 700-820 yuan per gram) [5]. Group 3: Potential Downside Risks - Persistent inflation above expectations could lead the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or even raise rates, diminishing gold's attractiveness [5]. - A significant reduction in geopolitical tensions could weaken safe-haven demand, potentially leading to a price pullback [5]. - A strengthening US dollar due to better-than-expected economic recovery in the US or recession in other regions could pressure gold prices [5]. - A slowdown in central bank gold purchases or reductions in holdings by some countries could undermine market confidence [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Long-term allocation: Gold is recommended as a part of an asset portfolio, with a suggested allocation of 5%-15% [5]. - Short-term trading: Investors should monitor key events related to geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and inflation data to adjust positions flexibly [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with a strong performance across nearly all non-ferrous metals, driven by investment demand and market conditions [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, reaching a 14-year high [2][4]. - Investment in silver products, such as silver bars and coins, has surged, leading to a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3][4]. - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for silver and platinum, projecting silver to reach $40 per ounce in the next three months and $43 in the next 6-12 months [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries, with a year-to-date increase of 19.54%, leading all 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification [3][6]. - The demand for silver is primarily driven by investment, which has a positive correlation with silver prices, indicating a significant "amplifying" effect during a silver bull market [5]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further increase demand for gold, potentially raising its price by 10%-15% [4]. Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Market - All sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metals industry have experienced price increases, with the precious metals sector leading at a 36.74% rise [6][7]. - The energy metals sector has seen a 12.69% increase, while the industrial metals sector has risen by 16.78% [7]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of considering long-term supply chain and national defense needs in the context of political risk premiums affecting strategic metals [7].

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The contribution rates of the three industries to economic growth were 3.6% for the primary industry, 36.2% for the secondary industry, and 60.2% for the tertiary industry [2] Industry Performance - The industrial production showed a robust growth with an industrial added value increase of 6.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.9 percentage points to economic growth [3][4] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.6%, contributing 1.7 percentage points to economic growth [3] - The service sector, particularly information transmission, software, and IT services, saw significant growth with added values increasing by 11.1% and 9.6% respectively, contributing a total of 1.0 percentage point to economic growth [3] Domestic Demand - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points [5] - Investment demand showed a steady increase, with total capital formation contributing 16.8% to economic growth, adding 0.9 percentage points to GDP [5] - Net exports maintained a stable growth trend, contributing 31.2% to economic growth, which added 1.7 percentage points to GDP [5] New Economic Drivers - The digital economy is gaining momentum, with the revenue of large-scale information transmission, software, and IT service enterprises growing by 11.4% from January to May, outperforming the overall service sector by 3.3 percentage points [6] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw added value growth of 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, exceeding the overall industrial growth rates [7] - High-quality investments in equipment manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 7.5% and 8.6% respectively, indicating a focus on optimizing and upgrading industries [7]

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing a volatile phase, with Shanghai gold TD prices slightly down by 0.10% to 770.8 CNY per gram, indicating a potential turning point after a sustained upward trend [1] - Citibank's report suggests that the significant rise in gold prices has been driven by diminishing safe-haven demand, predicting that the current bull market may be nearing its end [2][3] - Central bank gold purchases dropped by 33% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in buying even from major consumers like China [3] Group 2 - The influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on gold prices is critical, as rising real interest rates could diminish gold's appeal, especially if inflation remains high [3] - The large-scale economic stimulus plan proposed in the U.S. budget for 2025 may negatively impact gold prices by shifting investor focus towards riskier assets like stocks [3] - India and China account for over 60% of global gold jewelry demand, and their sensitivity to price changes could lead to decreased purchases if gold prices remain high [4] Group 3 - Brand gold prices in retail stores on July 7, 2025, range from 982 to 1006 CNY per gram, reflecting slight variations among different brands [5] - Financial institutions and manufacturers show a range of gold bar prices from 634 to 816 CNY per gram, influenced by brand premiums and production costs [6] - The current market conditions suggest a critical turning point for gold prices, with reduced safe-haven demand and investment enthusiasm indicating potential downward pressure [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup predicts a potential turning point for the historically rising gold prices, warning that gold prices may drop below the psychological threshold of $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, signaling the end of the current commodity market rally [1][3] - The analysis team led by Max Layton indicates that by the second half of 2026, international gold prices may return to the range of $2500 to $2700, driven by multiple factors creating downward pressure, including a decline in investment demand as risk aversion diminishes and a gradual improvement in global economic growth expectations [3] - The report highlights that the core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices were geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a 30% increase attributed to market volatility from the Trump administration's trade policies and escalating Middle East tensions [3] Group 2 - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $3396, with Citigroup providing a 60% probability forecast that gold prices will fluctuate above $3000 in the next quarter before entering a correction phase, reflecting a reassessment of the global economic outlook [4] - The anticipated value correction in the gold market is expected to test investors' risk appetite and indicates a significant turning point as the interplay between risk demand and policy expectations evolves [4] - The report warns that the supportive factors for gold prices, such as concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, are undergoing qualitative changes, particularly as the 2025 U.S. midterm elections approach [3]