Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for platinum and palladium is bullish in the long - term [4] Report's Core View - The long - term core logic for being bullish on platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite significant short - term pullbacks, the long - term value of platinum and palladium as reserves is highlighted under the de - dollarization trend, and the supply - demand fundamentals in the industrial sector are favorable [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 493.10, 493.55, and 489.90 respectively. The price changes are 0.80, 2.45, and 0.15, with percentage changes of 0.16%, 0.50%, and 0.03%. The trading volumes are 7351, 271, and 105 respectively, and the open interests are all 13298. The spot premiums are 1.96, 1.51, and 5.16 [1] - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 361.40, 361.10, and 358.70 respectively. The price changes are 3.20, 2.50, and 0.50, with percentage changes of 0.89%, 0.70%, and 0.14%. The trading volumes are 2782, 69, and 23 respectively, and the open interests are all 4904. The spot premiums are - 5.4, - 5.1, and - 2.7 [1] Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The price of Shanghai platinum is 495.06 yuan/gram, with a change of 5.41 and a percentage change of 0.011%. The price of London platinum is 1908.00 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 12.00 and a percentage change of - 0.006%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 758.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with changes of 16.00 and 0.00 and percentage changes of 0.022% and 0.000% [1] - **Palladium Spot**: The price of Chinese palladium is 356.00 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.00 and a percentage change of 0.035%. The price of Russian palladium is 3735.53 rubles/gram, with a change of 110.32 and a percentage change of 0.030% [1] Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 541,249.04 ounces, a decrease of 12991.8 ounces compared to the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts are 311,333.49 ounces, a decrease of 1006.9 ounces. The trading volume of the Gold Exchange is 792.11 million yuan, a decrease of 3814.5 million yuan, and the trading volume is 16.00 kilograms, a decrease of 80.0 kilograms [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 247,765.39 ounces, a decrease of 608.3 ounces compared to the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 211,887.35 ounces [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The current dollar index is 99.88, a decrease of 0.62 compared to the previous value. The S&P 500 index is 6528.52, an increase of 184.80. The US Treasury yield is 4.30, a decrease of 0.05. The Nasdaq index is 21590.63, an increase of 795.99. The Dow Jones index is 46341.51, an increase of 1125.37. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate remains unchanged at 6.92 [1] - **Related Derivatives**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 are 1010.00, 1020.10, and 1023.30 respectively, with changes of - 1.02, 5.22, and 5.38. The current prices of Shanghai Silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 are 18137.00, 18126.00, and 18114.00 respectively, with changes of 381, 419, and 432 [1] Macro News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027, indicating a more conservative stance [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Personnel Nomination**: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination faces opposition in the Senate [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China emphasizes promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026 [3] Comments and Strategies - **Short - term Situation**: As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have pulled back significantly from their highs, mainly due to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which has led to short - term strengthening of the US dollar [4] - **Long - term Logic**: The long - term bullish logic remains intact, supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and favorable supply - demand fundamentals in the industrial sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2][4] - Copper: Risk sentiment rebounds, and prices rise [2][7] - Zinc: Shows a relatively strong performance [2][10] - Lead: Decrease in overseas inventories supports prices [2][14] - Tin: Oscillates with a slight upward trend [2][17] - Aluminum: Supply pressure persists [2][21] - Alumina: The oversupply situation remains unchanged [2][21] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Platinum: The situation reverses, and prices rebound [2][24] - Palladium: Rebounds upward [2][25] - Nickel: The marginal increase in inventory slows down, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is pushed up by the ore end [2][29] - Stainless steel: The steel price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost [2][30] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot have increased to varying degrees, with trading volumes and positions showing different changes. ETF holdings have decreased, and inventory changes vary. Price spreads also show different trends [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell said the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position," and the White House and Iran have different stances on the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai copper futures decreased during the day but increased at night, and the price of LME copper increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," and China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation. China's refined copper production increased, and Peru's copper production also increased. Codelco expects production costs to rise [7][9]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai zinc futures decreased slightly, while the price of LME zinc increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [10]. - **News**: Trump's "exit roadmap" emerged, and the euro - zone inflation rate soared, increasing the expectation of interest rate hikes [11]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai lead futures increased slightly, and the price of LME lead also increased. Trading volumes and positions changed, and overseas inventory decreased. Price spreads also showed different trends [14]. - **News**: Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," and China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation [15]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanghai tin futures increased, and the price of LME tin also increased. Trading volumes and positions decreased, and inventory changed. Price spreads also showed different trends [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Iranian president expressed the willingness to end the war, Trump said he would end the Iran war in "two to three weeks," China's central bank will strengthen monetary policy regulation, and the euro - zone inflation rate soared [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The ECB president questioned the US Treasury Secretary's view on the impact of the Iran war, and the decoupling of US Treasury bonds and oil prices became a key signal [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: OPEC's production in March hit a new low since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic, and there were various news about the Iran situation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures showed different trends, with trading volumes, positions, and inventory changing. Price spreads also showed different trends [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala, and there are various news about nickel production and sanctions in Indonesia [30][31][34]. - **Inventory Tracking**: The inventory of refined nickel, new energy, and nickel - iron stainless steel showed different trends [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend forecasts and analysis of influencing factors for each commodity [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: Drops from the trading range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: The situation reverses and rebounds, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. - **Palladium**: Rebounds upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Risk sentiment improves, and prices rise. The trend strength is 1 [2][8]. - **Zinc**: Runs strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][11]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventories decline, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Tin**: Oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: Supply pressure persists. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. The trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Nickel**: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of the pyrometallurgical cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The document does not directly cover crude oil, but it mentions the impact of geopolitical factors on energy prices [68][69]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Urea**: Oscillates in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Benzene**: Oscillates strongly. The trend strength is 0 [2][110]. - **PTA**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][76]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Widely oscillates within the day. The trend strength is 0 [2][79]. - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and the structure is differentiated. The trend strength is 1 [2][83]. - **PP**: The supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April. The trend strength is 1 [2][84]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation is at a low level. The trend strength is 1 [2][89]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][93]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The trend strength is 0 [2][116]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks remain, and supply disruptions occur frequently. The trend strength is 1 [2][121]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals are supportive, and the trend remains strong. The trend strength is 1 [2][122]. - **PVC**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: Drops at the night session and remains high in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds overseas. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Stimulated by B50 news, it shows a short - term strong performance. The trend strength is 1 [2][161]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sown area is lower than expected, boosting the sentiment of the soybean sector. The trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA area report is bullish, and the market may rebound. The trend strength is 1 [2][170]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the market rebounds and oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][170]. - **Corn**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][173]. - **Sugar**: Oscillates within a range. The trend strength is 0 [2][177]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new domestic crop planting. The trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts. The trend strength is 0 [2][185]. - **Hogs**: The L - bottom expectation is recognized, and the central price continues to decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][188]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills. The trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The resumption of hot metal production is slow, and ore prices are under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market trading sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Manganese Silicide**: The expected demand from the ore end tightens, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Log**: The demand improves, and the price oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The trend strength is 0 [2][151].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has changed due to the willingness of the US and Iran to end the war. Precious metals have risen significantly, and the risk - preference of the market has rebounded. However, the negotiation details may still fluctuate [1][12]. - The China's official manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic sentiment has improved. The bond market is expected to be volatile [22][23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has declined due to the expected end of the war; the price of some agricultural products and metals is affected by supply and demand and other factors [5][36][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Schmid warns that inflation is a real risk and may stagnate near 3%. The US and Iran's willingness to end the war has reversed the market trading logic. Gold prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and then gradually rise with fluctuations [10][12] - Investment advice: It is expected that precious metals will oscillate and rise, but the trend will be affected by the development of the US - Iran situation [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and Pakistan put forward five initiatives to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East. The new regulations on the funds of domestic enterprises listed overseas have been implemented, which improves the convenience of cross - border financing. The global risk assets have rebounded, and the A - share market may gradually repair [13][14][16] - Investment advice: Hold a low - position long position in the stock index and wait and see [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job vacancies in the US in February decreased, and the labor market activity is cooling. Although the US and Iran have expressed their willingness to end the war, the military operations have expanded, and the negotiation process may be tortuous. The volatility of the US stock market remains high [18][20] - Investment advice: Wait for a clearer right - hand side signal due to high short - term volatility [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, indicating an improvement in the domestic economic sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious when chasing up [22][23][25] - Investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile period, and be cautious when chasing up [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on March 31. The price of coal in the northern port has gradually weakened. Although it is in the off - season, the long - term upward risk of coal prices still exists due to overseas energy shortages [26] - Investment advice: Coal prices may slow down in the short term but have an upward risk in the long term [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Indian mining company plans to invest in a Brazilian iron ore project. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The downstream acceptance of ore prices is not high, but the increase in marginal costs limits the downward space [28] - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain weak [29] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot prices of coking coal in ports have mostly been lowered. The decline of the futures price is mainly due to the fall in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [30] - Investment advice: The futures price is affected by energy issues in the short term. Pay attention to demand changes [31] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in March was above the boom - bust line. The steel price has declined slightly due to the easing of the Middle East situation, and it is expected to remain in a volatile pattern [32] - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in March were estimated at 15.86 million tons. The US soybean planting intention was lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory was higher than expected. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March increased significantly [34][35][36] - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans [36] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory in the four northern ports increased, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions and purchases provide support for the corn price. The corn price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern [37][38][39] - Investment advice: Consider selling call options as the corn price is in a high - level volatile pattern [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Muyuan's net profit in 2025 decreased by 16.45%. The current hog market is in a weak situation, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the long - term strategy is to consider going long on far - month contracts [40][41][42] - Investment advice: Short on rebounds for the near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts with caution [42] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium salt projects are in progress. The lithium carbonate price has fallen. The supply disturbance has not been realized, and the demand is growing. The long - term view is supported by the new energy substitution narrative. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44][45] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips, but beware of liquidity risks [45] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have fluctuated. The market is mainly following the trend of precious metals. Due to geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues, it is recommended to wait and see [46][47] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading; pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and take profits on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is in a low - level volatile state. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the price. It is recommended to wait and see and protect long positions near the regeneration cost line [48][49][50] - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips on the right - hand side; wait and see on arbitrage [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating. Geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues exist. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on long positions [53] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading and arbitrage [53] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some copper - related companies have investment and profit - increasing plans. The copper price is affected by the Middle East situation and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [54][55][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see on short - term single - side trading; pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the supply from major producing areas and demand growth [58][59] - Investment advice: The tin price will be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and pay attention to supply and demand factors [59] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production in March decreased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to the expected end of the war. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [60][62] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the Middle East situation, and the oil price will remain highly volatile [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco's April CP for LPG has increased. The price of LPG has回调 due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [64] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [65] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The operating rate of asphalt refineries in April is expected to decline. The asphalt price is rising slowly, and the supply is short. The downstream demand is affected by high prices and the rainy season [65] - Investment advice: The asphalt price is difficult to decline in the short term [66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The styrene price has fallen. The short - term de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and the general direction is to go long on dips [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the potential ground - war expectation and go long on dips in the long - run [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4]. - Silver: Drops from the trading range [2][4]. - Copper: A stronger US dollar restricts price recovery [2][7]. - Zinc: Shows a slightly bullish trend [2][10]. - Lead: Lacks driving forces and prices fluctuate [2][13]. - Tin: Trades within a range [2][16]. - Aluminum: Supply issues continue to escalate [2][20]. - Alumina: Shows a slightly bearish trend [2][20]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Mainly trades in a sideways range [2][24]. - Palladium: Trades in a narrow range [2][24]. - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the mining end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][36]. - Stainless steel: Prices fluctuate as demand and cost factors compete [2][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T+D increased by 1.59% and 1.66% respectively, with trading volumes decreasing. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T+D increased by 1.13% and 0.54% respectively, with trading volumes showing different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Comex Gold decreased by 192,945 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 2,628 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 250,587 ounces [4]. - **Macro - News**: Powell stated that the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position", and traders expect a possible rate cut this year. The White House said Trump hopes to reach an agreement by April 6, but Iran denies the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 0.18%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Copper 3M increased by 0.44%, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 6,105 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 2,350 tons [7]. - **Macro - News**: Similar to gold, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news. Industry news shows that China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and Peru's copper production in January increased by 3% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.68%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M increased by 1.07%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing [10]. - **News**: Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point plan", and the Iran - related war is changing the energy pattern [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.36%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Lead 3M increased by 0.69%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest increasing [13]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 4.20%, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The closing price of LME Tin 3M increased by 0.35%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest decreasing [17]. - **Macro - News**: Similar to other metals, including Powell's remarks and some policy - related news [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased, with trading volume and open interest showing different trends. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract decreased, and for cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract increased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the inventory of LME aluminum ingots decreased [20]. - **News**: Powell's remarks and Trump's threat to Iran [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum futures and related spot increased, while the prices of palladium futures and related spot showed mixed trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed differently [25]. - **Macro - News**: Policy is in a favorable position, and private credit does not pose a systemic risk. Market expectations for Fed rate hikes have changed, and there are various events related to the Iran situation [27][28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased slightly. Trading volumes and open interests showed different trends [37]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, and some nickel - related companies have production - related news. Inventory data shows changes in refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories [37][43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - **Positive Outlook (Trend Intensity: 1 or 2)**: Zinc, Aluminum, Cast Aluminum Alloy, p-Xylene, MEG, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Urea, Palm Oil, and Sugar [11][23][76][92][97][117][175][189] - **Neutral Outlook (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, Tin, Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Industrial Silicon, Benzene, Styrene, Soda Ash, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [5][8][14][17][25][37][47][51][121][127][84][89][101][108][111][163][166][171][183][186][193][198][205] - **Negative Outlook (Trend Intensity: -1 or -2)**: Iron Ore, Power Coal, Logs, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, and Live Pigs [54][70][72][145][201] Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities based on their fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and industry news. Geopolitical factors, such as the Iran - related situation, have a significant impact on many commodities, including energy and metals. Supply and demand dynamics, cost factors, and policy changes also play crucial roles in determining the price trends of different commodities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international gold showed certain increases, and trading volumes and positions had some changes. ETF holdings decreased slightly [5]. - **Silver**: It fell from the shock platform, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international silver increased, and trading volumes and positions also changed [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price recovery, with a trend intensity of 0. China's refined copper production increased, while waste copper imports decreased. Peru's copper production increased, and Codelco expects cost increases due to the Middle - East conflict [8][10]. - **Zinc**: It is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of domestic and international zinc increased, and inventories decreased [11]. - **Lead**: Lacking driving forces, the price is oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international lead had different trends, and inventories changed [14]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international tin increased, and inventories decreased [18]. - **Aluminum**: Supply issues continue to intensify, with a trend intensity of 1. Alumina is oscillating weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 1 [21][23]. - **Nickel**: The marginal slowdown of inventory accumulation, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by the ore end to move up, with a trend intensity of 0. Stainless steel is in a game between demand and cost, and the steel price is oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil**: It slightly declined at night and remained at a high level in the short - term, with a trend intensity of - 1. Low - sulfur fuel oil is still weak, with a trend intensity of - 1 [145]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently, with a trend intensity of 1 [133]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals are supportive, and the trend is still strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [133]. - **Chemical Products** - **p - Xylene**: It is in a short - term shock market and is still strong in the medium - term, with a trend intensity of 1. PTA is in a short - term shock market and is still strong in the medium - term, with a trend intensity of 0. MEG has a tight supply and a strong medium - term trend, with a trend intensity of 1 [76]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [84]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a wide - range oscillation within the day, with a trend intensity of 0 [89]. - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation, with a trend intensity of 1. PP has an increase in cracking and PDH maintenance in April, and supply support is strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [92]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation is at a low level, and it may oscillate strongly later, with a trend intensity of 1 [97]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [101]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [108]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [111]. - **Urea**: The price center moves up, with a trend intensity of 1 [117]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Benzene is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. Styrene is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [121][171]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend intensity of 0 [127]. - **PVC**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [141]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats** - **Palm Oil**: Stimulated by B50 news, it shows a short - term strong performance, with a trend intensity of 1. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the quarterly inventory and planting intention report, with a trend intensity of 0 [175]. - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybean Meal**: It is adjusting and oscillating, waiting for the USDA report, with a trend intensity of 0. - **Soybean**: It is rebounding and oscillating, with a trend intensity of 0 [183]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to policy auctions, with a trend intensity of 0 [186]. - **Sugar**: It is oscillating strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [189]. - **Cotton**: The domestic market lacks new driving forces, with a trend intensity of 0 [193]. - **Eggs**: Wait for the opportunity to short at high prices in the far - month contracts, with a trend intensity of 0 [198]. - **Live Pigs**: The de - stocking is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down, with a trend intensity of - 1 [201]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [205]. Others - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation of negotiation easing, and the ore price is falling, with a trend intensity of - 1 [54]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillating repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0 [58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon has a slightly increased cost expectation, and bullish sentiment is high, with a trend intensity of 0. Manganese silicon is in a wide - range oscillation due to energy information disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [63]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's first - round price increase is expected to be implemented this week, and it is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. Coking coal is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [66][67]. - **Power Coal**: The sentiment is weakening, and there is a short - term callback pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [70]. - **Logs**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak, and the positive spread is expanding, with a trend intensity of - 1 [72]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure, the 04 contract is oscillating in a narrow range, and the far - month contracts follow geopolitical fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**:烧碱, LLDPE, PP, 对二甲苯, LPG, 丙烯, 棕榈油, 白糖 [8][105][90][146][188][202] - **Neutral Outlook**:黄金, 白银, 铜, 铅, 锡, 氧化铝, 铂, 钯, 镍, 不锈钢, 碳酸锂, 工业硅, 螺纹钢, 热轧卷板, 硅铁, 锰硅, 焦炭, 焦煤, 纸浆, 玻璃, 甲醇, 苯乙烯, 纯碱, PVC, 橡胶, 合成橡胶, 短纤, 瓶片, 胶版印刷纸, 纯苯, 豆油, 豆粕, 豆一, 玉米, 棉花, 鸡蛋, 花生 [17][20][26][29][37][49][59][63][72][77][80][114][121][124][134][140][154][97][102][176][179][184][188][196][199][206][211][218] - **Negative Outlook**:铁矿石, 动力煤, 原木, 燃料油, 低硫燃料油, 生猪 [68][84][86][158][214] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Market Trends**: The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. For example, the situation in the Middle East affects the supply of raw materials and the production of related industries [7][111][154]. - **Investment Strategies**: For some commodities, it is recommended to buy on dips, such as in the case of 碳酸锂. For others, pay attention to spread trading opportunities, like in the 集运指数 (欧线) [59][172]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver show a neutral trend. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and silver has fallen from its oscillation platform [17]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price recovery. The production of refined copper in China from January to February increased year - on - year, while the import of scrap copper decreased [20][22]. - **Zinc**: It shows a slightly bullish trend, with prices oscillating upwards [23]. - **Lead**: Lacks driving forces, and prices are oscillating [26]. - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval [29]. - **Aluminum**: Supply issues continue to intensify. Alumina oscillates weakly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [33]. - **Nickel**: The marginal slowdown of inventory accumulation and the increase in the cost of pyrometallurgical production supported by the ore end. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between demand and cost [49]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fossil Fuels**: - **Coal**:动力煤 has a short - term downward pressure due to weakening sentiment. Coke and 焦煤 oscillate widely [84][80]. - **Oil - related Products**: Fuel oil remains at a high level in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil is still weak [158]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA, 对二甲苯, MEG**: PTA and 对二甲苯 are in a short - term oscillating market and are expected to be bullish in the medium - term. MEG has a tight supply and a bullish medium - term trend [90]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber oscillates widely, and synthetic rubber oscillates widely within a day [97][102]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE's supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. PP's supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April [105]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently at a low valuation and is expected to oscillate strongly in the later period [8][110]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates strongly [124]. - **Urea**: The price center moves up [130]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Benzene oscillates strongly, and styrene oscillates slightly bullishly [134][184]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little [140]. - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances. Propylene has fundamental support and a bullish trend [146]. - **PVC**: Oscillates widely. The high inventory needs time to digest, but the market is expected to be supported in the long - term [154]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans and Related Products**: Soybeans and soybean meal oscillate. The market is waiting for the USDA report. Palm oil shows a short - term bullish performance due to B50 news, and soybean oil focuses on the quarterly inventory and planting intention report [188][196]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to policy auctions [199]. - **Sugar**: Oscillates strongly [202]. - **Cotton**: The domestic market lacks new driving forces [206]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [211]. - **Pigs**: The de - stocking is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down [214]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills [218]. Transportation - **集运 Index (欧线)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The near - month contract 2604 oscillates narrowly, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors [160].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation between the US and Iran, with risk aversion increasing, and the prices of various assets showing different trends [1][2][6]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different commodities vary, with some facing supply disruptions and others having changes in demand [4][35][42]. - The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is in a wait - and - see state, and the impact of the Iran - US conflict on inflation needs further observation [15][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chairman Powell said there is a contradiction between the Fed's two goals, and short - term monetary policy is in a wait - and - see stage [11]. - Trump threatened to attack Iran, and the gold price oscillated and rose. The decline in US bond yields reduced the pressure on precious metals. Gold prices continued the oscillatory bottom - building trend [12]. - Investment advice: The short - term trends of gold and silver prices are oscillatory, and the rebound strength is weak [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Rubio said the US may re - evaluate its relationship with NATO after the Iran war, and Powell said the Fed can wait and see the impact of the war on inflation [14][15]. - Trump pressured Iran to reopen the Strait, market risk aversion weakened, and the US dollar index rebounded in the short term [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will maintain a high level in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell said that energy price shocks are often short - term, and monetary policy usually ignores such shocks, but inflation expectations need to be closely monitored [18]. - Trump hoped to reach an agreement with Iran before April 6, but Iran denied the negotiation. Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The short - term probability of reaching an agreement is low, and US stocks opened higher and closed lower [19][20]. - Investment advice: It is expected that US stocks will operate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Administration for Market Regulation aims to prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. A - shares oscillated and strengthened, but the signal of the stock index turning from a rebound to a reversal has not appeared [22]. - Investment advice: It is still recommended to hold a low - position to avoid risks [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 269.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 261.5 billion yuan on the day [24]. - The market expectations are chaotic, and the capital and institutional behavior dominate the market. Treasury bond futures strengthened, but the cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [24][25]. - Investment advice: The cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully recovered, but the iron ore price continued to oscillate weakly. The long - term price decline pressure increased, and the short - term spot is expected to be weakly stable [27][28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price will continue to oscillate weakly, and the long - term price decline pressure will increase [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market decreased. The overall coking coal supply is slightly reduced, but the national output is still at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, but the market sentiment has weakened recently [29]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the futures price is supported by energy issues, but the overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The transportation department completed 355.8 billion yuan of transportation fixed - asset investment from January to February. Mexico made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Chinese hot - rolled steel [30][31]. - The steel price oscillated after opening higher. The supply - demand contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and it is difficult to form a smooth trend. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East and energy prices [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean inventory of major oil mills decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is behind last year [32][33][34]. - The market expects the US soybean quarterly inventory to reach 2.063 billion bushels. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price will oscillate for the time being, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Ukraine's grain exports decreased by 20.4% year - on - year. The domestic supply side has changes in sales progress, imports, and inventory. The downstream demand has support, and the policy provides bottom - line support [36][37]. - Investment advice: The corn price will maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Indonesian president said the country will promote the B50 biodiesel project this year, which strengthened the possibility of its implementation and the palm oil price rose [39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the palm oil price will be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts [40]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market supervision department will prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. EVE Energy's subsidiary plans to invest 6 billion yuan to build a 60GWh power energy - storage battery project [40][41]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated strongly, the spot trading weakened, the supply side was tight, and the demand side focused on power demand [41][42]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices, but it is difficult for the spot to drive the futures price to break through the previous high before the supply disruption is realized [43]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium oscillated upward, mainly following the trend of precious metals. The supply side has risks, and the demand side has support [44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and pay attention to the risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the month - spread [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The downstream consumption will face the off - season, and the lead price may test the support level again [46][47]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at a low price on the long - short side and wait and see on the arbitrage side [47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, the zinc price oscillated upward, and the LME structure changed. The market liquidity has problems, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and the previous long positions are recommended to take profits at high prices. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glomar and Cobalt Blue plan to build a deep - sea mineral processing plant, and the Canadian government tries to save a copper smelter. Congo (Kinshasa) and China signed a mineral cooperation agreement [50][51][52]. - The copper price is suppressed by the risk of war escalation and liquidity panic. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the overseas demand is weak [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the domestic - foreign inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin price had a discount, and the domestic and overseas inventories changed. The supply side has a tight pattern in the short term, and the demand side is weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: The tin price will oscillate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply situation of major producing areas and the change of macro trends [56]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price oscillated strongly, and the negotiation between the US and Iran has large differences [57][58]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG port inventory increased slightly. The domestic and foreign LPG prices oscillated, and the market atmosphere was good. The conflict between the US and Iran may intensify [59]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation and the dynamics between the US and Iran [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea futures price rebounded, the inventory decreased, and the demand was supported, but the export policy may restrict the upward space [60][61]. - Investment advice: The near - term urea futures price will continue to oscillate in a range [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene were strong. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the export of styrene is expected to be realized [63][64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to go long at low prices in general [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery and social inventories increased. The cost side supported the price, but the terminal demand has not fully started, and the inventory digestion is slow [66]. - Investment advice: The geopolitical risk continues, and the downside support is strong [67]. 3.2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd's 2025 revenue was about $21.1 billion, and it issued a cautious warning for 2026. The Middle East geopolitical situation has an impact on the container freight rate, with the far - month contracts rising and the near - month contracts oscillating weakly [68][69]. - Investment advice: The near - month contracts return to the spot logic, and the far - month contracts are easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to maintain an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2] - Silver: Drops from the oscillation platform [2] - Copper: A strong dollar limits price rebounds [2] - Zinc: Runs strongly [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Oscillates strongly [2] - Aluminum: Focus on supply disruptions [2] - Alumina: Ranges in an oscillatory manner [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Overall weak [2] - Palladium: Oscillates at a low level [2] - Nickel: The marginal increase in inventory slows down, and the mining end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2] - Stainless steel: The price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 yesterday was 940.00, with a daily decline of 9.55%, and the night - session closing price was 980.00, with a decline of 1.30%. The trading volume increased by 43,191 compared with the previous day, and the positions decreased by 6,229 [4]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Gold inventory decreased by 99 kg compared with the previous day [4]. - **News**: The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the "Tripoli" amphibious assault ship and 3,500 soldiers arrived in the Middle East. The US consumer inflation expectation has the largest increase in nearly a year [4][7]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 yesterday was 15,498, with a daily decline of 12.30%, and the night - session closing price was 17,246.00, with an increase of 3.47%. The trading volume decreased by 2,980 compared with the previous day, and the positions decreased by 3,257 [4]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 2,054 kg compared with the previous day [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract yesterday was 95,930, with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 95,490, with a decline of 0.46%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 6,030, and the positions decreased by 9,313 [8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 9,365 tons compared with the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory increased by 425 tons [8]. - **News**: Iran's steel mills and nuclear facilities were attacked, and drones attacked Israel's largest transportation center. The US Secretary of State said the Iran war would last 2 - 4 weeks. Zambia aims to triple copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended its Kennecott copper mine in Utah [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 23,380, with a daily increase of 1.34%. The trading volume increased by 35,859, and the positions decreased by 381 [11]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1,632 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons [11]. - **News**: Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said the US proposal was extreme and unreasonable. Shanghai's second - hand housing market had a strong "spring market" [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16,555, with a daily increase of 0.58%. The trading volume decreased by 415, and the positions decreased by 8,975 [14]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 404 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 25 tons [14]. - **News**: Iran's steel mills and nuclear facilities were attacked, and the US - Iran conflict continued [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 362,460, with a daily increase of 2.82%, and the night - session closing price was 363,920, with an increase of 2.29%. The trading volume increased by 104,247, and the positions increased by 21,954 [18]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 353 tons [18]. - **News**: Houthi rebels in Yemen "joined the war", and two major aluminum giants in the Middle East were attacked [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract was 23,935, with an increase of 210 compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Alumina contract was 345,552, and the positions decreased by 14,195. The closing price of the main Aluminum Alloy contract was 22,960, with an increase of 140 [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 137.10 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 42.09 million tons [21]. - **News**: UAE's EGA's core smelter was damaged in the Middle East conflict, and the US was preparing for a ground operation in Iran [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 493.05, with an increase of 1.16%. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 358.20, with an increase of 1.37% [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX Platinum inventory decreased by 4,527 ounces, and the NYMEX Palladium inventory remained unchanged [25]. - **News**: The Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked Israel, and the Israeli military said it was close to completing the attack on about 90% of Iran's key military industrial facilities [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 137,100, with an increase of 1,240 compared with the previous trading day. The closing price of the main Stainless Steel contract was 14,390, with no change [31]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [37]. - **News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel ore benchmark price, and Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala [31][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for being bullish on platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although there are short - term disturbances, they do not change the long - term bullish logic [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 493.05, 491.10, and 489.35 respectively. The price changes are - 0.10, - 0.45, and 0.05, with price change rates of - 0.02%, - 0.09%, and 0.01%. The trading volumes are 5790, 157, and 77 respectively, and the open interests are all 13217 [1] - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 358.20, 358.00, and 357.50 respectively. The price changes are - 0.05, - 0.10, and - 2.30, with price change rates of - 0.01%, - 0.03%, and - 0.64%. The trading volumes are 2838, 33, and 39 respectively, and the open interests are all 4662 [1] Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The previous closing price of Shanghai platinum was 477.04 yuan/gram, with a price change of - 7.51 and a price change rate of - 0.015%. The previous closing price of London platinum was 1849.00 US dollars/ounce, with a price change of - 20.00 and a price change rate of - 0.011%. The previous closing prices of Zhou Dafu platinum and Lao Fengxiang platinum were 728.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with price changes of - 32.00 and 0.00, and price change rates of - 0.042% and 0.000% [1] - **Palladium Spot**: The previous closing price of Chinese palladium was 342.00 yuan/gram, with a price change of - 9.00 and a price change rate of - 0.026%. The previous closing price of Russian palladium was 3579.34 rubles/gram, with a price change of - 207.26 and a price change rate of - 0.055% [1] Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 558,767.51 ounces, a decrease of 14985.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 312,340.38 ounces. The current trading volume on the Gold Exchange is 138.00 kilograms, an increase of 64.0 kilograms compared to the previous value, and the trading amount is 6,547.26 million yuan, an increase of 2947.0 million yuan compared to the previous value [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 248,373.69 ounces and 211,887.35 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.17, 6,368.85, 4.44, 20,948.36, 45,166.64, and 6.91 respectively. The changes compared to the previous values are 0.26, - 108.31, 0.02, - 459.72, - 793.47, and 0.01 respectively [1] - **Related Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the current prices are 995.18, 998.66, and 1001.20 respectively, with price increases of 2.22, 2.68, and 2.38 compared to the previous closing prices. For Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the current prices are 17558.00, 17489.00, and 17476.00 respectively, with price increases of 39, 17, and 12 compared to the previous closing prices [1] Macro News - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 each, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: US - Israeli military strikes on Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Chair Nomination**: US President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination, and there are uncertainties about the confirmation process and subsequent policy independence [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3] Comments and Strategies - **Market Performance**: As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retreated from their February 24 repair highs [4] - **Core Disturbances**: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, dragging down platinum and palladium. There are uncertainties in the nomination process and subsequent policy independence [4] - **Macro Factors**: The judicial investigation of Powell has shaken the US dollar's credit. The global central bank gold - buying wave continues, highlighting the reserve value of platinum and palladium. Geopolitical risks in Greenland provide support, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged [4] - **Industry Factors**: There is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, with surging hydrogen energy demand and South African production capacity constraints. Palladium supply is rigid, and demand is supported by hybrid vehicle demand and strict emission policies [4]