Core Insights - US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.39 million barrels, leading to a 1.4% increase in oil prices, indicating a fierce battle between "inventory repair" and "policy uncertainty" in the market [1][2] - The decline in inventory alleviated investor concerns about an imminent supply surplus, with the market reacting positively to the data [1][3] Inventory and Price Dynamics - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a reduction in crude oil inventories to 418 million barrels, which exceeded market expectations and boosted market sentiment [1][3] - The decline in refined oil inventories also contributed to the overall decrease, suggesting strong demand despite tariff impacts on long-term consumption [1][2] Policy and Geopolitical Factors - The market is currently in a "viewpoint oscillation" phase, influenced by unresolved issues such as potential legal disputes from Trump's removal of Federal Reserve governors and its implications for interest rates [2][4] - The US imposed a 50% tariff on certain Indian goods in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, which may not alleviate investor concerns about global supply surplus [2][4] Soft Power Mechanisms - The current oil price fluctuations are driven by a tug-of-war between "inventory-driven soft power recovery" and "policy uncertainty leading to soft power depreciation" [2][3] - The inventory data's positive impact on oil prices is reinforced by the "supply elasticity threshold" effect, which activates bullish market sentiment when inventory declines exceed 2 million barrels [3][4] Future Outlook - Key soft power variables influencing oil prices in the next month include the stability of Federal Reserve policies (30% weight), developments in the India tariff situation (25% weight), China's strategic reserve demand (20% weight), and OPEC's production discipline (25% weight) [5] - Observing the continuity of inventory declines and India's procurement strategies will be crucial for understanding the global supply dynamics, with potential impacts on oil prices ranging from $5 to $8 per barrel due to geopolitical risks [5]