弱美元降息周期
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全球宏观预期偏暖 后市锡价中枢或有望维持高位
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 06:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the strong performance of tin futures is supported by increased imports and stable domestic production, with the main contract reaching 381,800.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.80% [1] - In November, China imported 15,099 tons of tin ore, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, marking the highest monthly import since March 2024, with Myanmar contributing 7,190 tons, also a new high since March 2024 [1] - Domestic refined tin production in December was 15,895 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.61%, with a total annual output of 174,400 tons, reflecting a cumulative decrease of 1.65% [1] Group 2 - Citic Futures anticipates that the weak dollar and the commencement of China's 14th Five-Year Plan will provide clear support for tin prices, with expectations of maintaining high price levels in the future [3] - The firm notes that while macroeconomic sentiment may drive prices to new highs, there are concerns about potential selling pressure as prices approach historical peaks, and the actual supply may face risks due to the fragility of overseas mining operations [3] - Newhu Futures highlights that the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic components may lead to a temporary surge in exports and production, but the actual impact on tin consumption remains uncertain [3]