需求方面，半导体行业延续景气，国内锡焊料企业开工率呈现维稳态势。11月份样本企业锡焊料产量环比增加0.95%，开工率较10月份小 幅上涨0.69%。 分地区来看，华南地区的锡焊料厂商整体展现出更强韧性，开工水平大体维持稳定。原因在于，当地产业链更深度嵌入汽车、AI服务器 等新兴应用领域，这些下游板块的订单相对充足且预期向好，为生产端带来了较为持续的支撑与成长空间。此外，华南聚集了数量众 多、体量不大但业务链条较完整的灵活型企业，在应对短期需求变化时调整节奏更快，能够更好对冲市场波动的不利影响。与之形成对 比的是，华东地区的锡焊料企业开工情况受压更为明显。该区域的客户结构更偏向传统的消费电子与家电板块，而在11月份，这些传统 行业订单恢复节奏偏慢，"旺季不旺"的格局凸显，导致整体交易情绪偏弱，开工积极性也随之下降。 供给端：10月锡矿进口有所回升，矿端紧缺略有改善 根据海关公布数据，2025年10月国内锡矿进口量有所回升，10月份国内锡矿进口量为1.16万吨（折合约5050金属吨）环比33.49%，同 比-22.54%，较9月份上涨1482金属吨（9月份折合3568金属吨）。1-10月累计进口量为10.3万吨， ...

12月10日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报314820.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及324210.00元，下方探低312350.00元，涨幅达2.22%。 据调研国内20家锡冶炼厂(涉及精锡产能31万吨，总产能覆盖率97%)结果显示，2025年11月精锡产量为 15490吨，环比减少0.82%，同比减少6%，2025年1-11月精锡累计产量为15.85万吨，累计同比减少 1.74%。冶炼厂11月开工率为61.14%。 12月9日，LME锡库存录得3050.00吨，较上一日减少25吨，减少幅度为0.81%；最近一周，LME锡库存 累计减少95.00吨，减少幅度为3.02%；最近一个月，LME锡库存累计增加15.00吨，增加幅度为0.49%。 后市来看，沪锡期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 广州期货表示，当前市场关注点转向明日凌晨美联储12月议息会议，市场预期将降息25个基点，但任何 关于2026年降息步伐将会放缓的迹象都可能不利于风险资产表现，整体情绪偏谨慎。基本面，随着刚果 (金)局势缓和，市场对于矿端供应扰动的担忧逐步减弱，高锡价对需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Zinc - The fundamentals and macro - environment have limited changes. The supply is generally loose, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the decline in smelting profits. The demand is average, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export window of zinc ingots may boost the domestic zinc price. The Shanghai - London ratio may be repaired, with the main contract referring to 22300 - 23000 [2]. Copper - After the implementation of interest - rate cuts and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply of copper ore is in short supply, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. The main contract refers to 86500 - 88000 [4]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows regional differentiation. The fundamentals are strong, and long positions should be held. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. The electrolytic aluminum market is driven by the macro - environment, but the fundamentals are weak. The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - level benefits and weak fundamentals in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callback [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is strongly supported, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 20800 - 21400 [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of long - short interweaving. The refined nickel production is at a high level, and the supply of nickel ore is generally stable. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 118000 - 124000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock state. The macro - level drive is weakened, the nickel - ore market is temporarily stable, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, with the main contract referring to 12400 - 12800 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement. The price may fluctuate and adjust in the short term [17]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. If the organic silicon enterprises cut production, the inventory pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range being 8500 - 9500 [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is rising. The supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22630 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 4587 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.36 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc output was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The galvanizing and other开工 rates showed different changes [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.48% to 87210 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 827 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper output was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The copper rod and other开工 rates increased [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.72% to 296000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 15428.41 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.15% to 21920 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in some regions decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina output was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum output was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.70% to 21650 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined aluminum price difference in some regions increased [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output decreased by 2.42%, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot output increased by 1.06% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.17% to 120650 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 1765 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The domestic refined nickel output increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.47% [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the nickel - iron price decreased by 0.22% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel output in China increased by 0.38%, and the social inventory increased by 1.73% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1.26% to 84350 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 1.73% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70% [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.09% [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The N - type re - feed material average price remained unchanged at 52150 yuan/ton, and the N - type silicon wafer price was stable [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon output was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%, and the inventory increased by 3.09% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, with slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. Although the mining permits have been approved, the export volume of tin ore is still far below the normal level, and the supply gap cannot be effectively filled. The long - term demand expectations from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support the tin price. It is expected that the tin price will remain stable or have a slight rebound [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved, but the resumption of production is slow. It is expected that the supply of tin ore will significantly recover in the fourth quarter. In September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 8714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. The import volume from countries like Congo (Kinshasa) decreased due to shipping, but it is at a normal level. The import volume from Myanmar is increasing, and short - term supply shows improvement [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State is slow and difficult to increase production before November. The raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises persists, and the tin concentrate processing fee (TC) in Yunnan remains low. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin is insufficient due to a significant reduction in scrap, and the refined tin output remains low. The raw material inventory of domestic smelters is generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance in September, with capacity utilization likely to remain low [12]. - Demand side: Traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate show weak consumption, but emerging fields like new energy vehicles and AI servers provide long - term demand support for the tin price. In the peak season of October, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. As of the end of October, the total social inventory of major tin ingots in China was 7698 tons, a decrease of 654 tons from September [12]. - Conclusion: In October, the tin price fluctuated mainly following the non - ferrous metal sector. The supply tension supports the tin price, and it is expected to remain stable or have a slight rebound [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19] 3.3 Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fee remains low [26]. 3.4 Supply Side - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export are presented [30][32][35] 3.5 Demand Side - Semiconductor sales: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [44]. - Consumer electronics: The production of domestic computers and smartphones is presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [46]. - Household appliances: The production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs is presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [48][50]. - Photovoltaic: The production of photovoltaic cells and cumulative photovoltaic installation in China are presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [52]. - Other fields: Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. PVC production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [55]. - Downstream enterprises: The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises and domestic apparent tin consumption are presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as China's social inventory and LME inventory are presented [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. The market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply remains unchanged. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The psychological price ceiling of downstream users for copper is gradually rising. - In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. In the short - term, excessive price increases may inhibit demand. [2] Aluminum - The alumina market shows regional differentiation. The northern market shows signs of bottoming out, while the southern market continues to decline. The supply pressure has not been substantially relieved, and the demand side faces multiple pressures. - The recent rise in the aluminum price is mainly driven by events, with potential risks of short - term range corrections. Attention should be paid to the actual production progress of Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects, the supply recovery progress of Guinean bauxite, and the inventory depletion rhythm. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short, leading to a contraction in industry supply. - The demand side shows a mild recovery, and the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend under the dual effects of cost support and supply - demand balance. [5] Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, the Shanghai zinc price oscillated at a high level. The supply is generally loose, but the subsequent increase in supply may be limited, and attention should be paid to the inflection point signal of supply changing from loose to tight. - The demand side has no unexpected performance. The low overseas inventory supports the zinc price, and the domestic zinc supply is relatively loose. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound trend. [7] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply is limited this year. The demand side is still weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. - The market sentiment has improved, and the long - term low - position orders can be held. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [8] Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated and repaired slightly. The macro - market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. - The refined nickel production is still at a high level, with new projects put into production and some projects planning to reduce production. The nickel ore supply in the Philippines is affected by the rainy season, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the overall fundamentals are flat, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. [10] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, with weak market information. The macro - driving force is weakened, and the nickel ore supply in the Philippines is reduced, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. - The ferronickel price is under pressure, and the chromium - iron market is weakly stable. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile. [12] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market was generally strong. The production increased slightly last week, mainly driven by lithium - spodumene and mica. The downstream demand is more optimistic than expected, but the news - side uncertainty and capital impact may put pressure on the price. - The price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 660 yuan/ton to 85,995 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.77%. - The import profit and loss improved by 21.88 yuan/ton to - 500 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50%. - The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 5.2 million tons to 62.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.67%. [2] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.28%. - The import profit and loss improved by 98.7 yuan/ton to - 2349 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 62.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 1729 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10%. [5] Fundamental Data - In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 64.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. In September, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.1 million tons to 5.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.82%. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,500 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 525.27 yuan/ton to - 4212 yuan/ton. [7] Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 15.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.73%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1500 yuan/ton to 282,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 25.5 dollars/ton to 39.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 39.23%. [8] Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. - The SHEF inventory increased by 153 tons to 5919 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65%. [8] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. - The futures import profit and loss decreased by 374 yuan/ton to - 1701 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.18%. [10] Supply and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36%. - The SHFE inventory increased by 676 tons to 36,751 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%. [10] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. - The spot - futures price difference decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.64%. [12] Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.32 million tons to 48.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. [12] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. - The SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in October was 84,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.90%. [14]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance - sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain. Domestically, China's economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations, with strong resilience. Despite challenges like weak consumption and investment, policies will support the economy to achieve the annual growth target [4][56][57]. - For aluminum, the Fed's expected December rate cut and domestic fiscal support are macro factors. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact on ore shipments may support alumina prices, but the alumina supply remains loose. Demand is transitioning to the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [4][105]. - For zinc, the external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Supply may decline, and the domestic refined zinc surplus may ease. Demand is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector weak and the auto and home - appliance sectors providing support [8][9]. - For tin, the supply at the mine end remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is slow. The semiconductor and auto industries support tin demand. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro: The Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, and Domestic Demand Still Faces Pressure Market Operation Logic - **US**: In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance - sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in a slump, service industry growth slowed, the labor market cooled, and the CPI fell more than expected. Future policies are expected to be more flexible and uncertain, and a December rate cut is likely [19][20][24]. - **Eurozone**: In October, the economy showed "enhanced stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." The service industry PMI reached a 1 - and - a - half - year high, inflation fell slightly, but the manufacturing recession continued. The labor market was stable, and inflation showed "overall cooling and core stability" [26][28][29]. - **China**: In the first three quarters, the economy grew steadily. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed strong resilience. The price index showed some repair, and the PMI indicated overall stable production and operation but a weak manufacturing demand [34][44][50]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift is significant, and future policies are uncertain. The eurozone economy depends on the service industry in the short - term and needs to solve multiple challenges in the long - term. - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal policies will support the economy to achieve the annual target [56][57][58]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [60]. 3.2 Aluminum: Off - season Downstream Start - up Cools, but High - level Support Remains Market Operation Logic - **Cost Side**: In October, domestic bauxite prices rose slightly, and overseas prices fell. The supply of domestic bauxite was tight, and the impact of the Guinea rainy season on imports was still being felt. In 2025, the supply of imported bauxite may increase, but the spot resources may still be tight. In October, the output of alumina increased, but the profit was compressed. In November, the market is expected to remain in surplus, and prices will be under pressure. In October, the cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [64][72][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, production increased, and the aluminum - water ratio rose. In November, winter environmental protection restrictions may affect production, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline. Import losses are large, and the net import volume may exceed last year [80][82]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: In October, the refined - scrap price difference widened, and the PMI of the recycled aluminum industry declined but remained above the boom - bust line. In November, demand is expected to be boosted, and the industry PMI may continue to expand. The substitution of recycled aluminum for primary aluminum is gradually emerging [86]. - **Demand Side**: In October, the aluminum processing PMI fell below the boom - bust line. Different sectors have different performances. Demand is transitioning to the off - season. The real estate market is still weak, but the auto market is growing well. In November, the State Grid's order bidding may accelerate, but terminal demand needs to be released [88][91][98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Near the end of October, the supply increased, and demand was weak. In November, the inventory may change from de - stocking to stocking, which will have a negative impact on prices [100]. Market Trend Judgment The Fed is likely to cut rates in December, and domestic fiscal policies will support the economy. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact may support alumina prices, but the supply is still loose. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [105]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas events, ore - end resumption and shipment, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [107]. 3.3 Zinc: The External - strong and Internal - weak Pattern Continues, Pay Attention to the Upper Pressure Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in October**: Zinc prices fluctuated higher after a correction. Overseas prices were stronger than domestic ones. The market was boosted by overseas rate cuts and low LME inventories in the short - term, but faced long - term surplus pressure [110]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Overseas production increased significantly in the first half of 2025 and is expected to continue to increase in the second half. In October, processing fees declined, and import losses increased. Port inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the raw - material inventory days of smelters have decreased [113][115][122]. - **Refined Zinc**: In October, production increased but was lower than expected. In November, production is expected to decline due to factors such as raw - material shortages and profit compression. Zinc ingot imports are at a low level, and the domestic inventory increase pressure may ease. Overseas LME inventories are at a low level, supporting prices [124][127][130]. - **Zinc Consumption**: The traditional consumption season was under - performing. Galvanized sheet exports may decline in October. The real estate market is still weak, and the impact on zinc demand is limited. The auto market is growing well but may cool slightly in the fourth quarter [132][137][139]. Market Trend Judgment The external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided. 3.4 Tin: The Probability of Overseas Supply Increase Rises, and the Price Center of Gravity Faces Downward Risk Market Operation Logic - **Mine End**: The supply at the mine end is still tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is slow. The arrival volume from Congo (Kinshasa) and Australia will increase in October. - **Smelting**: After the September shutdown and maintenance, refined tin production increased in October, but raw - material shortages in some provinces led to low processing fees. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry supports tin demand, and the auto market has grown rapidly but may slow down at the end of the year. Market Trend Judgment The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, the US dollar index is strong, and copper prices weakened yesterday. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases suppress demand. The support for the main contract is at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices will likely fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term, and there is a risk of a callback to 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton if inventory accumulates [4]. Aluminum Alloy - ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices will show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 [8]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to continue the strong trend [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 86590 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 685 yuan/ton, up 186.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; in September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21440 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2608 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 21400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 115 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22580 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 4758 yuan/ton, down 276.57 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month; in September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin was at 285400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium was 74.00 dollars/ton, up 85.00% from the previous day [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 310 yuan/ton, down 66.07% from the previous day [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 121800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was - 212 dollars/ton, down 3.25% from the previous day [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month; imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 12800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 425 yuan/ton, up 25.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80608 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) was 280 yuan/ton, down 83.53% from the previous day [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 1480 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month; demand was 126961 tons, up 8.70% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Copper - After interest rate cuts and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next key macro events are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and China - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price floor. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is price - aversion sentiment, there is still significant procurement after price drops. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price floor, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. Pay attention to marginal changes in demand and US tariff conditions, with the main support level at 86,000 - 86,500 [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November with limited rebound space. The market should focus on whether large - scale production cuts will occur if prices continue to fall. - In October, the electrolytic aluminum market was strong. In November, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile with limited upside. Although high prices may suppress downstream procurement, the overall macro environment is positive. However, domestic supply is under pressure due to high operating capacity and expected import arrivals, and downstream demand is not strong enough [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and strengthened. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, squeezing enterprise profits. In November, the ADC12 price is expected to remain strong and volatile, with an operating range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum supply, downstream demand, and policy implementation [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. Supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand has no unexpected performance, but the low overseas inventory creates a risk of a short squeeze on LME, supporting the zinc price. The domestic zinc ingot supply is relatively loose, and export windows are intermittently open. In the short - term, the zinc price will be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit its upward movement. It is expected to remain range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply may be limited this year. Demand is weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and photovoltaics, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. In the short - term, the tin price may fall due to the Fed's hawkish stance. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain strong [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is range - bound with no clear one - way trend. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for ternary materials has inventory - building needs but may not be sustainable. The market should pay attention to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. The price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be range - bound between 12,500 - 13,000 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures were strong, but the market was affected by supply - side news. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in weekly production and an unexpected improvement in downstream demand. In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited, and the price is expected to be widely volatile between 78,000 - 87,000 [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.56% to 87,570 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 10.31% to 3,966 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss improved by 89.84 yuan/ton to - 793 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.62% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 26.50% from the previous month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.38% to 21,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 44.7 yuan/ton to - 2,471 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.01 to 7.45 [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, an increase of 3.52% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 2.90 million tons, an increase of 13.07% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 95 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, an increase of 7.48% from the previous month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43% from the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 483.90 yuan/ton to - 4,273 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, an increase of 2.85% from the previous month. In September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a decrease of 11.61% from the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.14% to 284,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 247.83% to 40 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss decreased by 1.75% to - 15,516.50 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 7.14% to - 600 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, a decrease of 15.13% from the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71% from the previous month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 121,950 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss improved by 7.21% to - 1,429 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume in the relevant period decreased by 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in 43 factories was 176.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous month, and the stainless steel export volume was 41.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.55% from the previous month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.69% to 80,220 yuan/ton, and the SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton. - The basis (based on SMM electric carbon) increased by 167.93% to 1,250 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread remained unchanged at - 1,420 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5.73% from the previous month, and the lithium carbonate demand in September was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28% from the previous month [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai tin (SHFE) showed an overall oscillating and slightly stronger trend. On October 24, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 282,000 yuan/ton, with small price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - In September 2025, the refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output from January to August was 50,200 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption process of tin mines in Myanmar has affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand growth rates of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained good, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. In October, the demand in emerging sectors is expected to maintain its resilience, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The tin ore supply remains tight, and the processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain at a low level under the influence of ore supply disruptions [11]. - LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory increased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the semiconductor and automobile industries are generally on an upward trend. There is still high uncertainty overseas, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the future. With the repeated disruptions in the ore supply, the recommended trading strategy is to take a long - biased approach, with the weekly support level around 272,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE tin oscillated slightly stronger last week. The spot price of 1 tin was 282,000 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025, with small price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing due to factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output in August was 6,854.21 tons, showing a slight month - on - month increase [11][43]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors like computers and some white goods slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will adjust [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are declining weakly. Profits will remain low under ore supply disruptions [11]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory increased slightly week - on - week [11][28][32]. - **Strategy**: Take a long - biased approach, with the weekly support level around 272,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to macro - policies, disruptions in Myanmar and Congo tin mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industry Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industry chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report shows the SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no detailed analysis is provided [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,470 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 22, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,720 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week [28]. - As of October 19, 2025, the refined tin social inventory was 7,925 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week [32]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of October 23, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees continued to be weak [38]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing due to factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output in August was 6,854.21 tons, showing a slight month - on - month increase [43]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [50]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile output was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer output was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [54]. - In September 2025, China's PVC output was 2.0307 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication output was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [57]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. China's refrigerator output in September 2025 was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [61]. - In September 2025, China's washing machine output was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. China's color TV output in September 2025 was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [65]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy output was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. China's integrated circuit output in September 2025 was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [69]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [74]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing the production, demand, and supply - demand balance of China and the world in different years [77].

Group 1 - In September 2025, China's refined tin imports amounted to 1,269 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 35.46% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.08% [1] - From January to September 2025, the total import volume of tin ingots in China reached 16,026 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 32.95% [1] - In September 2025, China exported 1,749 tons of refined tin, which is a year-on-year increase of 76.77% and a month-on-month increase of 6.65% [1] Group 2 - The cumulative net export of refined tin from January to September 2025 was 592 tons, with a net export of 480 tons in September [1] - The import window for refined tin was largely closed in August, with the September import volume primarily coming from previous orders made by traders based on the LME tin market [1] - The main destinations for September's refined tin exports included the Netherlands, South Korea, India, and Japan, with a 5.48% decrease in export volume compared to August [1]