强预期和弱现实
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申万宏源陈达飞:刚性“泡沫”——申万宏源2026年海外经济宏观展望
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-19 03:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the AI revolution is still in its early stages, and the potential for a "golden era" in AI capital may follow the current bubble phase [1][3] - The article discusses the divergence in asset prices since the emergence of ChatGPT, highlighting a conflict between strong expectations for the AI industry and weak economic realities [1] - It predicts that by 2025, the U.S. economy will experience a "soft landing," with a continued trend of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, while both risk and safe-haven assets will perform well [1][2] Group 2 - In 2025, AI capital expenditure is expected to become a new pillar of the U.S. economy, although there are concerns about cash flow pressures and debt financing needs for representative companies [3] - The article outlines that the monetary policy cycles in the U.S., Europe, and Japan will diverge, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to cut rates twice, while Japan may restart rate hikes depending on internal political stability [2] - It highlights the fiscal expansion expected in the U.S., Germany, and Japan, with respective increases in deficit rates of +1.0%, +0.84%, and +0.77%, and the impact on GDP growth from fiscal expansion is ranked as follows: Germany +0.63%, U.S. +0.6%, Japan +0.25%, and Eurozone +0.2% [2]