在AI革命加速演进的背景下，寻找重资产、低淘汰率（Halo）企业的投资策略正主导市场，而日本股市 有望成为这一交易的终极赢家。 2月26日，英国《金融时报》东京分社负责人利奥·刘易斯（Leo Lewis）撰文称，AI带来的行业颠覆促 使投资者迅速调整投资组合，寻找具备抗风险能力的"非输家"。分析指出，曾经因重资产模式而备受资 本冷落的日本企业，如今正因其独特的工业底蕴和不可替代的技术壁垒，成为全球投资者抵御科技冲击 的关键避风港。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，摩根士丹利认为，目前资金正从轻资产叙事转向"HALO"交易（重资产、低淘 汰），即配置具有高壁垒、难被技术替代的实体产能与网络（如电力、铁路等），以对冲AI带来的不 确定性。 值得注意的是，Leo Lewis认为，这一趋势正在实质性地重塑市场对日本资产的定价逻辑。随着美国等 经济体大力推进再工业化，并应对AI带来的庞大能源和基建需求，日本企业凭借在关键材料和高端制 造供应链中的核心地位，正迎来利润率的大幅扩张和估值的全面重估。 定价逻辑反转：从"僵尸企业"到AI避风港 面对AI引发的快速变革，寻求重资产、低淘汰率（Halo）特征的投资成为市场焦点。 工业底蕴显 ...

分析师 1: 各位投资朋友们，大家晚上好。欢迎收听我们开门红系列的第二期，AI 革命和泡沫分析框 架。这一期，我们核心想讨论的是本轮的 AI 泡沫到了什么样的阶段。我们给出的清晰的 对照是类似于科网泡沫的 1998 年，又是泡沫加速期，没有到泡沫破灭期。在这个时候， 我们坚定，依然对 AI 整个的科技革命抱有很大的信心。那么接下来，我们通过我们策略 的框架。包括对比本轮 AI 跟 2000 年的科网泡沫做各全方位的一个对比，然后找出里面的 相似点和不同点。 以及找出我们现在所处的，面临的问题，我们都做一一的这个解答。那么第一个，我们去 判断一个事物，特别是一个金融资产是否出现泡沫？需要一套相对完整的一个框架去界定 那么我们会从宏观层面，是不是有一个大的，就是从宽松环境，让一切的金融资产都进行 重估，或者是估值给予。过分的一种溢价，是不是有一种巨大的叙事，能够持续的催化， 这是从宏观产业层面，宏观层面。那么第二个，从产业层面上。那么该项事物是否具备一 定的故事性？ 能不能吸引很多投资者去抱团它？它的商业模式未来是否能盈利？应用场景是否是我们熟 悉的？特别是能承载很大的资金容量的。那未来竞争格局是否出现了裂缝？这 ...

从ChatGPT的先知时刻到Agentic时代的全面超频，AI正以史无前例的速度平权代码、消解孤岛。在这一轮狂飙突进的AI风潮中，我们看到的不仅是模型 参数的指数级增长，更是商业逻辑与软件范式的深层重构。在大洋两岸，所有人都在被这场无声的AI革命改变着，在可预见的未来这种改变仍将继续影 响每个人，乃至人类历史的演进。 此时此刻，如果站在AI震中的硅谷街头，你能感受到一种令人战栗的"超频感"：App墙正在瓦解，旧有的商业主权正随着Agentic Model的爆发而易手。在 这一场重塑物理世界的范式转移中，创业者面对的不再是算法的微调，而是生存法则的重构。 今天这篇文章来自， 身处硅谷的AI创业者、码荟成员企业Meshy AI创始人胡渊鸣。以下为全文： 我们生活在一个剧变的时代。我生命的前三十年，从来没有过这样的感觉：技术每天在颠覆式地进步，我每天都在不断自我解构，连一些基本的问题的答 案都搞不清楚： 毫无疑问，人类社会正在以惊人的速度在重构。生活在硅谷，对这种颠覆性创新的体感尤其明显。人类历史的奇点已来。 在MIT搞研究的时候，我用的名字是Yuanming Hu。创业以后，为了和美国客户打交道方便，两年前我让C ...

美国彭博社 2 月 21 日文章，原题：重塑全球格局的六大关键趋势 科技、基础设施和对美国的不信任感正 在重塑人们看待世界的新方式。你的世界地图可能已经过时了。围绕各个方面的斗争正在形成新的冲 突，紧张激烈的局势、快速的创新正在重塑经济关系，这种趋势也正在引导全球冲突与合作的方向。理 解当下的关键是绘制全球格局的六大主题：核心与边缘地带的重新划分，新旧势力范围交替，围绕咽喉 要道的冲突，科技版图的飞速变革，基础设施建设的必要性，各个国家的观望状态以及亟待理清的混乱 局面。 历史上的核心与边缘地带曾定义冷战地图，今天的核心地带和边缘地带之间仍然存在着竞争。美国在实 力方面日渐削弱，中国成为世界制造业的重量级国家。美总统如今正试图通过压迫盟友、投资美国再工 业化和国防产业，来扭转大西洋和太平洋地区的利益流向。 如今的地球呈现出新的势力范围：美国通过孤立敌对国家、干预拉丁美洲政治、奖励朋友、惩罚敌人， 以此来恢复从北极到阿根廷的主导地位。中国也为时代做好了准备，"一带一路"贯穿全球南方的大部分 地区，由中国建造的电信网络、开放式AI模型、数字支付平台组成的"中国数字工具包"支撑着全球40个 国家的200多个智慧城市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment is complex and volatile, with expectations of changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics and Trends - The core characteristics of the current market include significant price volatility for certain commodities and a notable premium for safe assets, with continued sector differentiation [2] - The pricing mechanism in the commodity market is undergoing fundamental changes, with a shift from global economic recovery to asset allocation driven by geopolitical conflicts [3] - The demand for strategic metals is being re-evaluated due to the weakening of the dollar's credit, the AI revolution increasing demand for new materials, and countries competing for strategic resources [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, with a forecasted range of 6.8 to 7 against the USD for 2026 [4] - The core support for RMB appreciation comes from a changing global asset allocation logic and a significant trade surplus, which exceeded 1 trillion USD in 2025 [4] - Potential negative factors for the RMB exchange rate include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and domestic export performance [4] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategies - The pricing power of commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macro narratives, focusing on de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [5] - Both industry clients and ordinary traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment in 2026 is characterized by increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and changes in monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Characteristics - The primary feature of the current market is the significant price increase in commodities driven by massive liquidity released by various countries from 2021 to 2025, with the U.S. playing a key role through interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3]. - Since the second half of 2025, geopolitical issues have dominated commodity market trends, leading to a persistent rise in prices for precious and base metals due to countries competing for strategic resources [3][5]. Price Dynamics and Trends - In 2026, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of significant price volatility and a notable premium on safe assets, with a clear division in sector performance [4][5]. - The core drivers of the commodity market in 2026 include the weakening of the dollar's credit, the demand surge for strategic metals due to the AI revolution, and the geopolitical risks prompting countries to secure strategic resources [5]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, expected to trade between 6.8 and 7 against the dollar throughout 2026 [6]. - Key supporting factors for the yuan's appreciation include a structural trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a shift in global asset allocation favoring Chinese assets [6]. Asset Rotation Insights - The pricing mechanism for commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the importance of de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [7]. - Both industry clients and individual traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [7].

Group 1 - The article outlines seven major events expected to occur by 2026, including significant interest rate cuts in the US and China, the explosive growth of AI applications, and increased geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The AI revolution is in its early stages, with large-scale deployment of GPUs and computing centers leading to a significant drop in costs, resulting in the commercialization of super applications by 2026 [3][5] - The article emphasizes that AI is not just a trend but a transformative force, likening its impact to a tsunami rather than a mere windfall, marking the beginning of a fourth technological revolution [3][5] Group 2 - The upcoming bull market is driven by three strong forces: continuous monetary easing, a new wave of technological revolution, and ample liquidity, characterized as a confidence bull market [5][6] - The capital market is tasked with three historical missions: developing new productive forces, aiding in major power technological competition, and repairing household balance sheets [5] - The article encourages a long-term perspective, focusing on essential trends and making decisive actions rather than relying solely on hard work [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of a "K-shaped" economic divergence, where high-income groups benefit from technological advancements while low-income groups face stagnation and increased competition [5][24] - It emphasizes the need for a new growth paradigm centered on human investment, highlighting that traditional growth metrics may not adequately reflect the realities of economic disparities [6][26] - The article calls for a shift in policy focus from mere physical investment to investing in human capital, which is essential for sustainable economic growth [7][30] Group 1: Economic Divergence - The "K-shaped" divergence indicates that high-income groups and tech giants thrive, while low-income groups and traditional sectors struggle [5][24] - This divergence is exacerbated by a focus on efficiency and technological worship, leading to a disconnect between macroeconomic growth and individual welfare [5][24] - The article raises concerns about the implications of technological advancements not translating into improved living conditions for the broader population [5][24] Group 2: Human-Centric Growth - A new growth model is proposed that prioritizes human investment, recognizing that people are the most active factor in enhancing productivity [6][26] - The article highlights the importance of addressing structural issues, such as the 2.55 billion urban residents without household registration who lack access to equal public services [7][26] - It argues that investments in education, healthcare, and social services should be viewed as high-return investments rather than mere expenditures [7][26] Group 3: Consumption and Economic Structure - The article points out that China's low consumption rate is a direct result of insufficient investment in human capital, leading to a cycle of low prices, low profits, and low incomes [8][27] - Despite high physical consumption levels, the monetary value of consumption remains below the global average, indicating a disconnect between production and actual economic welfare [8][27] - The need for a shift in growth measurement metrics is emphasized, advocating for a focus on income and quality of life rather than solely on GDP growth [8][28] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The article calls for innovative policy tools to support human investment, including fiscal measures for social welfare and structural monetary policies to aid small and medium enterprises [11][30] - It suggests that local governments should adjust GDP accounting methods to prioritize labor income and corporate profitability, thereby enhancing the focus on quality growth [11][28] - The need for anti-involution policies and encouraging companies to expand internationally is highlighted as a means to alleviate domestic competition pressures [12][31]

来源：泽平宏观 文 任泽平 2024年924以来，力度空前的宏观政策和AI革命点燃了 "信心牛"行情。 2025-2026 年市场连创新高，牛市共识强烈，更是出现逼空行情。随着监管降温杠杆、神秘资金流出 等，市场出现震荡。 这轮牛市能涨多久？未来还有没有行情？ 作为这轮牛市最早的吹哨人和牛市旗手，我在2024年9月提出"信心牛"，逻辑是政策牛+科技牛+水牛叠 加。 根据我的分析框架，后面市场的分化和震荡会加大，方向错误也不赚钱。 牛市的终结，一般有四大关键信号：估值过高、政策转向、没有增量资金流入、经济复苏证伪。牛市往 往在最疯狂时熄火，踩踏式出逃。 根据这四大信号来看，本轮牛市结束了吗？未来还会涨吗？ 坦率地讲，4100点的A股比我2024年预测"信心牛"的时候风险要大，涨上去的是风险，跌下来的是机 会。有些股票估值已经很高了，要理性看待市场。寻找风口上的鹰，不要炒作风口上的猪。 股市总是在绝望中重生，在争议中上涨，在狂欢中崩盘。所以，我们要带着慈悲之心抄底，在炮火中挺 进，在烟花中撤退。 牛市往往是普通投资者亏钱的主要原因，主要是频繁操作，追涨杀跌，炒作概念，不做长期基本面分 析。 对于此轮"信心牛"行情 ...

这轮牛市能涨多久？未来还有没有行情？ 作为这轮牛市最早的吹哨人和牛市旗手，我在2024年9月提出"信心牛"，逻辑 是政策牛+科技牛+水牛叠加。 2025-2026 年市场连创新高，牛市共识强烈，更是出现逼空行情。随着监管降 温杠杆、神秘资金流出等，市场出现震荡。 文 任泽平 2024年924以来，力度空前的宏观政策和AI革命点燃了 "信心牛"行情。 根据我的分析框架，后面市场的分化和震荡会加大，方向错误也不赚钱。 同时，考虑到A股散户为主、暴涨暴跌的特点，此轮牛市要监管好杠杆资金，实 现健康发展和慢牛长牛。 根据我二十多年的实战经验，如果逻辑还在，牛市不言顶，轻易不下车。如果 逻辑破坏，不抱幻想，不恋战。 坦率地讲，4100点的A股比我2024年预测"信心牛"的时候风险要大，涨上去的 是风险，跌下来的是机会。有些股票估值已经很高了，要理性看待市场。寻找风口上的 鹰，不要炒作风口上的猪。 牛市的终结，一般有四大关键信号：估值过高、政策转向、没有增量资金流 入、经济复苏证伪。牛市往往在最疯狂时熄火，踩踏式出逃。 根据这四大信号来看，本轮牛市结束了吗？未来还会涨吗？ 本轮"信心牛"行情与过去的三轮大牛市一样，都同样 ...