一、作为黄金标准的vix指数 二、822大涨的原因 2025年8月23日，上证指数大幅上涨1.45%，来到了3825.76点，突破了3800点大关。 不少投资者抱怨，牛市是不是走得太快了，最近一个周又涨了3.49%。这些投资者给慢牛和快牛下了一个十分直觉化的定义，指数上涨得快，就是快牛； 相反，指数上涨得慢就是慢牛。 然而，这种定义忽略了一个维度——上涨的合理性，如果增量信息能够大幅提升指数的内在价值，譬如，提升10%，即便是市场一天兑现相应的涨幅，这 种上涨也是合理的。 因此，我们不应该只关心上涨幅度本身，更应该关注上涨是不是由内在价值驱动，如果上涨是内在价值驱动，那么，上涨是慢牛的范畴；反之，上涨则是 快牛的范畴。 那么，如何判断一轮上涨是否由内在价值驱动呢？？主要观察vix指数的水平，如果vix指数的水平较低，上涨为内在价值驱动，属于慢牛范畴；相反，如 果vix指数的水平较高，上涨为情绪因素驱动，属于快牛范畴。 目前，vix指数已经上升到了20.92，虽然略高于20的警戒线，但是，波动率趋势上升的势头并不明显。 相比较而言，去年924的波动率水平更极端一些，最高升到了50.37，并且，波动率有十分明显的 ...

华尔街分析师认为人工智能热潮仍有发展空间。然而，作为这场热潮的核心推动者，OpenAI首席执行 官萨姆·奥尔特曼似乎信心不足。 上周晚些时候，奥尔特曼在与记者共进晚餐时，将当前的人工智能热潮与20世纪90年代的互联网泡沫相 提并论——彼时互联网公司估值急剧飙升，随后便遭遇崩盘。 奥尔特曼在接受科技媒体The Verge采访时表示："当泡沫出现时，聪明人会因核心真相而陷入过度亢 奋。回顾历史上的多数泡沫，比如科技泡沫，其背后皆有真实价值作依托：科技的重要性毋庸置疑，互 联网的重大意义也不言而喻。只是人们的热情超出了合理的边界。" 他在邮件中写道："第四次工业革命建设预计将投入数万亿美元。尽管人工智能供应商所在的私募市场 部分领域可能存在泡沫，但从整体来看，我们并不认为这构成整体泡沫。在我们看来，当下的市场状态 更类似于1996年——仍有巨大的发展空间，而非泡沫即将破裂的1999年。" Treasury Partners首席投资官理查德·萨珀斯坦也对泡沫担忧不以为意，指出大型科技股仍是市场发展的 驱动力。 据《巴伦周刊》报道，他在周一的一份报告中写道，大型科技公司"引领市场走高，并将继续主导市场 走势"，其依据在 ...

橡树资本Howard Marks警告称，美国股市正处于泡沫的“初期”，尽管回调的关键点尚未到来。他指出，回归均值的可能性很大，部分科技股相对于历史而言“估值相当高”。当被问及美国是否仍然适合防御性投资时，Marks表示，美国就像“一辆高价的好车”。尽管美国的基本投资环境“略有恶化”，但美国仍然是全球最佳的投资地点。 ...

Group 1 - The current A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, driven by a shift in policy expectations, particularly due to fiscal policy adjustments [1] - Investment value in technology companies, especially in artificial intelligence, is becoming increasingly evident, showcasing China's potential for technological innovation [1] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector continues to attract market interest, while geopolitical factors are boosting the performance of the military industry sector [1] Group 2 - The market's recent rise is attributed to multiple factors, including improvements in fundamentals, strong policy support, and the rotation of industry hotspots [1] - Market activity has significantly increased, with daily trading volumes approaching 2 trillion yuan, and the Hong Kong stock market showing particularly strong performance [1] - The definition of a "bull market" is discussed, with the observation that the Shanghai Composite Index needs to exceed 6000 points to be considered a true bull market [2]

美银月度基金经理调查显示，约 91%受访者持“美国股市价格过高”观点的比例创下2001年以来的最高水平。美银策略师Michael Hartnett表示，投资者目前预计美国经济硬着陆的可能性已降至1月份以来的最低水平。但鉴于货币政策和金融监管可能放松，股市上涨可能过热并形成泡沫。现金占总资产的比例为3.9%，这一水平与所谓的股票卖出信号相符。 ...

Group 1 - The core discussion revolves around the potential bubble in the humanoid robot industry, sparked by comments from investor Zhu Xiaohu about the need for mass exits from humanoid robot companies [2] - The debate includes various perspectives from entrepreneurs and investors, questioning the existence and definition of a bubble in the humanoid robot sector [2] - The article suggests that the discourse on bubbles should extend beyond the humanoid robot industry to consider the broader implications of bubbles on business and technology [2] Group 2 - The term "bubble" has historical roots, originating from the Latin word "bulla," and was first applied to economic phenomena during the 16th-century Dutch tulip mania [3] - Historical analysis of bubbles shows a pattern of collective cognitive bias leading to inflated asset prices, culminating in significant financial collapses [3] - The article emphasizes that while bubbles often result in wealth destruction and social upheaval, they are also a reflection of human nature's pursuit of speculative gains [3] Group 3 - The significance of bubbles in technology asset valuation differs from traditional asset bubbles, as technological bubbles can lead to substantial advancements despite initial failures [4] - The internet bubble of the late 1990s, for instance, resulted in the emergence of foundational technologies that shaped the digital economy, despite many startups failing [5] - Similarly, the solar energy bubble led to a concentration of patents among leading firms, accelerating technological development in the sector [5] Group 4 - Investors in venture capital face the dual challenge of supporting technological advancements while guarding against speculative excesses that can inflate asset prices [6] - The article outlines the need for venture capitalists to identify and manage bubble risks through various indicators and metrics [6] Group 5 - A set of eight indicators has been developed to assess the emergence of bubbles in industries, including growth rates of company numbers and financing amounts [7] - For example, a significant increase in the number of companies in a sector, such as a 200% annual growth rate, may signal irrational exuberance [8] Group 6 - The financing heat indicator reflects the growth rate of total financing in a sector, which can lead to a rapid increase in asset values [9] - Historical examples illustrate how spikes in financing correlate with the emergence of bubbles, such as the shared economy bubble in 2015 [9] Group 7 - Non-rational pricing indicators, such as price-to-sales (PS) ratios, can highlight discrepancies between startup valuations and established industry leaders, signaling potential bubbles [12] - The article cites instances where PS ratios for unprofitable companies reached unsustainable levels, indicating a bubble [12] Group 8 - Exit channel indicators, such as the high rate of SPACs trading below their initial public offering prices, can signal the onset of a bubble [13] - The influx of traditional industry players into emerging sectors often precedes significant valuation distortions, indicating bubble conditions [13] Group 9 - Talent acquisition indicators, such as inflated salary levels in emerging sectors, can also signal bubble conditions, as seen during the ICO boom [14] - The article notes that excessive salary growth relative to industry revenue can foreshadow a bubble's collapse [14] Group 10 - Media attention and narrative heat can act as accelerators for bubbles, with spikes in media coverage often preceding market corrections [15] - Regulatory behaviors, such as increased scrutiny and guidance, can also indicate the presence of a bubble in certain sectors [16] Group 11 - The article concludes that while historical data can provide insights into bubble dynamics, the unique context of each industry must be considered [17] - The ability to adapt to changing economic conditions and recognize the fluidity of bubble indicators is crucial for investors [17]

中金研究 2025年以来，美股尤其是科技龙头在全球市场中表现垫底，近期更是连续大跌，与由DeepSeek催化的港股科技龙头的强势行情形成鲜明对 比，这一"东升西落"的市场格局和叙事再度引发投资者对美股科技股泡沫风险的警惕。在美国增长放缓但新动能尚未接棒、政策随意性又 影响投资者信心的情况下，科技龙头的走势对美股和美国经济都有"牵一发而动全身"的重要意义。 那么，美股跌到哪了？本轮AI行情又走 到哪了？互联网泡沫对当下有何借鉴？ 点击小程序查看报告原文 美股跌到哪了？ 指数层面，标普500和纳斯达克指数已经从历史高点分别下跌10%和14%，经过近期快速回调，二者均已跌至年线支撑位5600 和17700左右，与我们此前的预期一致（《美国增长走弱的"真相"》）。从情绪指标看，标普500和纳斯达克指数均已超卖。估值上，标普500 动态P/E降至20倍，较2024年底的22.6倍回落11%；纳斯达克动态P/E降至24.6倍，较2024年底的30.2倍回落19%。龙头个股跌幅更甚，科技龙头 平均回撤幅度超过20%，估值偏高的特斯拉甚至已经从历史高点下跌近50%。美股头部7家龙头的市值占比降至26%，虽然仍高于互联网泡沫破 ...