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中国平安:归母营运利润平稳增长,新业务价值增速超预期-20250428
BOCOM International· 2025-04-28 12:33
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) with a target price of HKD 60.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.6% from the current price of HKD 45.95 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable growth in operating profit attributable to the parent company, with new business value growth exceeding expectations. The operating profit after tax (OPAT) for Q1 2025 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by the life and health insurance segments [5]. - The new business value for Q1 2025 surged by 34.9% year-on-year, with significant contributions from various channels, particularly the bancassurance and community finance channels, which grew by 170.8% and 171.3% respectively [5]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for the property and casualty insurance segment improved significantly, with a year-on-year reduction of 3 percentage points to 96.6% [5]. - Investment income remained stable, with a year-to-date growth of 3.3% in investment assets and an annualized comprehensive investment return of 1.3% [5]. - The solvency ratio for the life insurance segment was robust at 163.7%, reflecting a 47.3 percentage point increase from the end of 2024 [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for China Ping An Insurance show a steady increase from RMB 913,789 million in 2023 to RMB 1,153,545 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.4% [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of RMB 120,657 million for 2025, down from RMB 126,607 million in 2024, but projected to rise to RMB 130,993 million by 2027 [4][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 6.63 in 2025, with a gradual increase to RMB 7.19 by 2027 [4][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 9.2 in 2023 to 6.0 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [4][11]. Business Segment Performance - The life and health insurance segment is expected to see a slight recovery in premium income growth, with a forecasted increase of 1.0% in 2025 [6]. - The property and casualty insurance segment is projected to maintain a growth rate of 6.5% in premium income for 2025 [6]. - The new business value rate is anticipated to stabilize around 25.6% for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [7]. Conclusion - The report maintains a positive outlook on China Ping An Insurance, emphasizing its strong market position, diversified business model, and potential for growth in new business value, supported by a solid financial foundation and attractive valuation metrics [5][11].
中国平安(02318):归母营运利润平稳增长,新业务价值增速超预期
BOCOM International· 2025-04-28 04:38
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) with a target price of HKD 60.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.6% from the current price of HKD 45.95 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable growth in operating profit and an unexpected increase in new business value, with a 34.9% year-on-year growth in new business value driven by various channels [5][11]. - The report notes a significant decline in net profit, down 26.4% year-on-year, primarily due to investment losses and a one-time valuation drop from the consolidation of Ping An Good Doctor [5][11]. - The report emphasizes improvements in the comprehensive cost ratio for property and casualty insurance, which decreased by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 96.6% [5][11]. - The solvency position is strong, with a core solvency ratio of 163.7%, up 47.3 percentage points from the end of 2024 [5][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 913,789 million in 2023 to RMB 1,057,335 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to recover from RMB 85,665 million in 2023 to RMB 120,657 million in 2025, with a notable increase of 47.8% in 2024 [4][11]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to be RMB 6.95 in 2024 and RMB 6.63 in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5 in 2025 [4][11]. Business Performance - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 2.4% year-on-year increase in operating profit after tax (OPAT), primarily from the life and health insurance segments, while property and casualty insurance and banking segments experienced declines [5][11]. - The new business value rate improved significantly, reaching 28.3%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product structure optimization and cost reduction measures [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume of the stock is reported at 50.03 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 924.92 billion [3][11].