证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 25 日 投资要点： | 市场数据 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,147.23 | 0.72% | 3.08% | | 创业板指 | 3,354.82 | 1.41% | 1.83% | | 沪深 300 | 4,735.89 | 0.60% | 0.38% | | 中证 1000 | 8,426.33 | 1.52% | 8.67% | | 科创 50 | 1,473.28 | 0.54% | 4.98% | | 北证 50 | 1,547.20 | 0.77% | 5.51% | 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月25日 华源晨会精粹 20260225 固定收益 25Q4 保险公司资金运用有何变化？根据国家金融监督管理总局数据，截 至 25Q4，保险公司资金运用余额共计 38.48 万亿元，较 25Q3 增长 2.71%。截至 25Q4 险资（财产险及人身险公司，下同）债券投资余额同比增长 17.43%，其中 25Q4 单季 ...

摩根大通近期发布研报称，首次覆盖富卫集团予"增持"评级，目标价50港元，相当于预测2027财年内含 价值1.1倍。小摩预测2027财年新业务价值将达11亿美元，与友邦保险2012年12亿美元的新业务价值水 平相若。该股目前股价较其呈报内含价值存在折让，该行认为此估值属便宜。 香港联交所最新资料显示，2月20日，富卫集团(01828)股东将股票存入香港上海汇丰银行，存仓市值 27.31亿港元，占比5.64%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月20日，富卫集团(01828)股东将股票存入香港上海汇 丰银行，存仓市值27.31亿港元，占比5.64%。 摩根大通近期发布研报称，首次覆盖富卫集团予"增持"评级，目标价50港元，相当于预测2027财年内含 价值1.1倍。小摩预测2027财年新业务价值将达11亿美元，与友邦保险2012年12亿美元的新业务价值水 平相若。该股目前股价较其呈报内含价值存在折让，该行认为此估值属便宜。 ...

高盛预计保诚2025财年下半年的自由盈余产生(OFSG)为15.21亿美元，同比增长16%，比市场共识高出 6%，受益于后期保单的利润释放以及较小的负面营运变异影响。该行预计净自由盈余产生(NFSG)(扣除 新业务投资及其他支出后)将以更快的速度增长，同比增长27%。 高盛发布研报称，保诚(02378)将于3月19日公布2025财年业绩。高盛预计保诚2025财年第4季及全年的 新业务价值(NBP)分别同比增长10%及12%，以及下半年经营自由盈余总额(OFSG)势头持续强劲(同比增 长16%，相较上半年的同比增长14%)。该行将保诚目标价由136港元上调至150港元，重申"买入"评级。 该行预计保诚旗下中国香港和印尼业务在2025财年第4季的增长有所放缓，但这被中国内地增长加速、 马来西亚的逐季改善以及美元相对2024年第四季贬值的正面影响部分抵消。总体而言，2025财年12%的 增长符合公司双位数增长的目标，以及Visible Alpha预期的同比增长13%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，保诚(02378)将于3月19日公布2025财年业绩。高盛预计保诚2025 财年第4季及全年的新业务价值(NBP)分别同比增长10%及12%，以及下半年经营自由盈余总额(OFSG)势 头持续强劲(同比增长16%，相较上半年的同比增长14%)。该行将保诚目标价由136港元上调至150港 元，重申"买入"评级。 高盛预计保诚2025财年下半年的自由盈余产生(OFSG)为15.21亿美元，同比增长16%，比市场共识高出 6%，受益于后期保单的利润释放以及较小的负面营运变异影响。该行预计净自由盈余产生(NFSG)(扣除 新业务投资及其他支出后)将以更快的速度增长，同比增长27%。 该行预计保诚旗下中国香港和印尼业务在2025财年第4季的增长有所放缓，但这被中国内地增长加速、 马来西亚的逐季改善以及美元相对2024年第四季贬值的正面影响部分抵消。总体而言，2025财年12%的 增长符合公司双位数增长的目标，以及Visible Alpha预期的同比增长13%。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that AIA Group's stock price has increased by 62% since last year, currently valued at 1.4 times the projected intrinsic value for the next year, marking a new high for 2023 but still below the average of 1.7 times from 2013 to 2023 [1] - The target price for AIA has been raised from HKD 85 to HKD 96, equivalent to 1.4 times the projected intrinsic value for 2027, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1] - AIA's valuation is supported by stable compound growth in new business value, intrinsic value, and post-tax operating profit, with a recovery and upward trend in intrinsic value growth [1] Group 2 - Despite concerns from investors regarding the increasing proportion of savings-type products in mainland and Hong Kong markets, the growth story for AIA remains intact, with current valuation reflecting these risks [2] - The risk-reward profile for AIA's valuation is considered attractive, with an upward revision of new business value forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 4% and a 5% increase in net profit forecasts for 2025, primarily reflecting stock market performance in mainland and Thailand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that AIA Group's stock price has increased by 62% since last year, currently valued at 1.4 times its projected intrinsic value for the next year, which is a new high for 2023 but still below the average of 1.7 times from 2013 to 2023 [1] - Goldman Sachs raised the target price for AIA from HKD 85 to HKD 96, which corresponds to 1.4 times the projected intrinsic value for 2027, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The valuation of AIA is supported by stable compound growth in new business value, intrinsic value, and post-tax operating profit [1] Group 2 - Despite concerns from investors regarding the increasing proportion of savings-type products in mainland and Hong Kong markets, the growth story for AIA remains intact, and the current valuation reflects this [2] - The risk-reward profile of AIA's current valuation is considered attractive [2] - The forecast for AIA's new business value for 2025 to 2027 has been increased by 3% to 4%, and the net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 5%, primarily reflecting the stock market performance in mainland China and Thailand [2]

入选了格隆汇2026年"下注中国"十大核心资产名单的中国平安今日AH股齐升，中国平安A股涨4.32%，最高触及67.55元；H股涨3.81%，最高触及73.65港 元，股价创2021年5月以来新高，市值重回1.33万亿港元上方。 招银国际近日发研报指，维持中国平安"买入"评级，对其H股目标价从75港元上调至90港元。以可比基础计，该行预计中国平安2025年集团税后营业利润按 年增长12%至1360亿元，意味着第四季度营业利润将按年增长约46%。增速加快主要受惠于寿险及健康险业务营业利润强劲增长、资产管理业务减值损失下 降，以及财产保险业务承保利润稳健。报告亦指出，中国平安持续扩展银保渠道，目前已覆盖约1.9万个非平安银行网点。在家庭储户追求稳健收益的趋势 下，银保渠道具备进一步渗透的潜力，预计中国平安2025年新业务价值(NBV)将按年增长41.7%。(格隆汇) ...

报告亦指出，中国平安持续扩展银保渠道，目前已覆盖约1.9万个非平安银行网点。该行认为，在家庭 储户追求稳健收益的趋势下，银保渠道具备进一步渗透的潜力，预计中国平安2025年及2026年新业务价 值(NBV)将分别同比增长41.7%及17.7%。 招银国际发布研报称，维持中国平安（601318）(02318)"买入"评级，对其H股目标价从75港元上调至90 港元，对应2026年预测股价对内涵价值比率约0.9倍及市账率1.24倍。以可比基础计，该行预计中国平安 2025年集团税后营业利润同比增长12%至1,360亿元人民币，意味着第四季度营业利润将同比增长约 46%。增速加快主要受惠于寿险及健康险业务营业利润强劲增长、资产管理业务减值损失下降，以及财 产保险业务承保利润稳健。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new business value and new single premium of life insurance are expected to maintain rapid growth by 2026 [1][2] - The bank insurance channel is projected to see a new single premium growth rate of over 30% by 2026, driven by the demand for low-risk funds and the strategic focus of major listed companies on this channel [2] - The individual insurance channel is expected to see a new business value growth rate of 0%-10% in 2026, driven by improvements in "product + service" and "differentiated accounts" [2] Group 2 - The rigid cost of life insurance is effectively decreasing, with major companies showing a significant reduction in new single rigid liability costs, which are expected to alleviate interest spread risks [3] - The life insurance contract service margin (CSM) is anticipated to return to positive growth by 2027, driven by factors such as the bank insurance channel's growth and stabilization of risk-free interest rates [3] - The adjustment of investment actuarial assumptions for 2023-2024 has been made, with a low probability of further downward adjustments, supporting the stabilization of CSM balances for major companies [3]