1H25阳光人寿NBV可比口径下同比+47.3%至40.1亿元，其中个险/银保分别同比+23.5%/+53%;今年实际 披露NBV比去年实际披露同比+7.0%，调整后/调整前仍实现增长，好于该行预期;寿险CSM余额560.8亿 元，较上年末增长10.3%。分渠道看，个险渠道"浮动收益型+保障型产品"占比超50%;银保渠道"浮动收 益型+保障型产品"占比27.1%，分红险转型下产品结构优化明显。 财险承保盈利同比改善 1H25阳光财险原保险保费同比增长2.5%至252.7亿元，其中非车险分别同比+12.5%，非车险保费占比 50.6%，同比提升4.5ppt;CoR同比-0.3ppt至98.8%，其中赔付率/费用率分别同比+2.5ppt/-2.8ppt;车险CoR 同比-1.6ppt至98.1%，车险中家用车保费占比提升3ppt，新能源车险保费占比提升2.1ppt。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，阳光保险(06963)当前交易于0.38x/0.33x 2025e和2026e P/EV，维 持公司2025-2026年盈利预测基本不变，维持目标价4.60港币和跑赢行业评级，对应0.40x/0.34x 2025e ...

机构：光大证券 "量价齐升"推动新业务价值创新高。2025 年上半年，公司实现新业务价值28.4亿美元，同比+14%（固 定汇率）/+15.6%，其中25Q1/Q2 单季分别同比+12.8%/+18.9%，延续较好增长态势，主要受益于销量增 加及新业务盈利能力提升。具体来看，上半年年化新保费为49.4 亿美元，同比+8.7%，其中25Q1/Q2单 季分别同比+6.9%/+10.9%；新业务价值率录得57.7%，同比+3.8pct，主要得益于泰国及中国内地市场产 品结构优化及产品重定价。 主要报告分部新业务价值均实现增长，中国香港及泰国市场价值贡献度提升。 1）中国内地市场上半年实现新业务价值7.4 亿美元，同比-5.0%，若剔除经济假设变动影响，固定汇率 下同比+10%，其中第二季度同比+15%，主要受益于新业务价值率同比2.0pct 提升至58.6%。同时，友 邦中国持续拓展新业务地区，2019年以来新展业地区新业务价值在2025 年上半年增长36%。今年3-4 月，公司成功在安徽、山东、重庆和浙江开展业务，并已建立超1700 名新代理的代理队伍，新增1 亿名 目标客户，未来将持续赋能内地业务发展。公司计划 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 营运利润增长稳健，NBV 量稳价增 [Table_Title2] 友邦保险(1299.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 1299.HK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 77.50/48.60 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 7,652.48 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 72.85 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 7,652.48 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 9,051.41 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 8 月 21 日，友邦保险发布 2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年，公司实现税后营运利润 36.09 亿美元，同比增 加 6%（按固定汇率）；归母净利润 25.34 亿元，同比下降 23.5%；内含价值 708.53 亿美元，较年初持平（按固 定汇率）；新业务价值 28.38 亿元，同比 ...

2025 年 8 月 22 日 公司研究 新业务价值创新高，营运利润稳健增长 ——友邦保险（1299.HK）2025 年半年报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：73.45 元港币 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 105.04 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元港币)： | 7715.51 | | 一年最低/最高(元港币)： | 48.6/77.5 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 32.5% | "量价齐升"推动新业务价值同比增长 13%——友邦保险（1299.HK）2025 年 一季度新业务业绩点评（2025-05-01） 营运利润创新高，股份回购计划再添 16 亿美元——友邦保险（1299.HK）2024 年年报点评（2025-03-16） 新业务价值延续较好增长态势——友邦 保险（1299.HK）2024 年三季度新业务 业绩点评（2024-1 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·保险(HS) 友邦保险（01299.HK） 2025 年中报点评： NBV、NBV Margin 均提 升，中期每股股息同比+10% 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险收益（百万美元） | 17514 | 19314 | 20108 | 20968 | 21897 | | 同比（%） | 7.32% | 10.28% | 4.11% | 4.28% | 4.43% | | 税后营运利润（百万美元） | 6213 | 6605 | 7090 | 7666 | 8307 | | 同比（%） | -3.24% | 6.31% | 7.34% | 8.12% | 8.37% | | EPS（美元/股） | 0.36 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.82 | 0.93 | | EV（美元/股） | 6.42 | 6.57 | 6.95 | 7.39 | 7.88 | | P/EV | 1.49 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The practice of monthly premium disclosure by listed insurance companies in China has been broken, with major companies like China Life, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance no longer publishing this data [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Stopping Monthly Premium Disclosure - Regulatory bodies do not mandate insurance companies to disclose monthly premium income, allowing companies to have discretion over such disclosures [1][2]. - The implementation of new accounting standards (IFRS 17) has changed the way premium income is recognized, making previous data incomparable [1][2]. - Monthly premium income can fluctuate significantly due to various factors, such as seasonal trends and marketing activities, which may not accurately reflect the long-term operational stability of insurance companies [2][3]. Group 2: Alternative Metrics for Evaluating Insurance Companies - Consumers should focus on the solvency adequacy of insurance companies, which indicates their ability to meet obligations under extreme risk scenarios [3][4]. - Investors should pay attention to indicators such as new business value, channel efficiency, comprehensive cost ratio, and investment return rate, which are available in annual and semi-annual reports [3][4]. - Monitoring regulatory penalties against insurance companies can provide insights into their business quality and compliance levels [3][4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The insurance industry, particularly life insurance, is characterized as a long-term risk management tool significantly influenced by interest rate risks, contrasting with the short-term risk management of property insurance [1][6][17] - The Chinese critical illness insurance market experienced rapid growth due to inadequate healthcare systems and public health risk concerns, but the emergence of inclusive commercial insurance has led to a decline in market share [1][13] Core Insights and Arguments - Chinese insurance companies are currently facing pressure from interest rate spreads due to a shift in product structure from critical illness insurance to savings-type policies, resulting in increased liability costs and exacerbated issues from declining market interest rates [1][14][15] - To counteract the pressure from interest rate spreads, Chinese insurance companies are compelled to increase their allocation to equity assets to enhance investment returns, which can stabilize operations in a low valuation environment [1][15][17] - The design of life insurance products follows a cost-plus logic, where companies use actuarial techniques to assess mortality rates, expense ratios, and interest rates, incorporating a profit margin into the cost structure [1][7] Market Dynamics - In China, the number of agents is positively correlated with premium growth, especially during the rapid growth of critical illness insurance, indicating a heavy reliance on agents for selling protection products [1][9] - From a fundamental and valuation recovery perspective, Hong Kong stocks are preferred over A-shares, and insurance stocks are favored over brokerage firms due to significant valuation discounts and recovery potential [1][16] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector for 2025 are primarily focused on undervalued debt-like financial stocks, particularly insurance stocks, with a shift in focus from liability growth to investment changes [2][18] - Recommendations for future investments in the Chinese insurance sector include focusing on valuation recovery opportunities in Hong Kong stocks and selecting A-share stocks based on their elasticity [18] Additional Important Insights - The U.S. life insurance industry historically evolved by selling the underlying value concepts rather than just the products, which played a crucial role in its development [4][8] - The rapid growth of China's critical illness insurance market before 2012 was driven by insufficient major illness coverage in the healthcare system and increased public concern over health risks, particularly during periods of severe environmental pollution [12] - The decline in the critical illness insurance market post-2020 is attributed to the introduction of inclusive commercial insurance products that effectively replaced traditional critical illness insurance [13] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and dynamics of the life insurance industry as discussed in the conference call records, highlighting the challenges, market trends, and investment opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - UBS estimates that AIA Group (01299) will see a 10% year-on-year increase in operating profit per share for the first half of the year, with post-tax operating profit expected to grow by 5% [1]. Financial Performance - The mid-term dividend is projected to increase by 9% to HKD 0.48 per share, although UBS believes that there will be no updates to the share buyback plan for the time being [1]. - UBS forecasts that the new business value (VNB) for AIA in the first half will grow by 16% and 15% when calculated at actual exchange rates (AER) and constant exchange rates (CER) respectively [1]. - The growth rate for the second quarter is expected to accelerate to 21% and 18% for AER and CER respectively, compared to 13% in the first quarter [1]. Market Performance - The strong performance in the Hong Kong and China markets is a key driver of growth, with the VNB growth rate in Hong Kong expected to rise from 16% in the first quarter to 28% [1]. - Excluding the impact of economic expectations, the VNB in the Chinese market is anticipated to grow by 12% [1]. Leadership Changes - Du Jiaqi will assume the role of new chairman on October 1, and significant strategic adjustments for the company are expected to become clearer following his appointment [1]. - UBS maintains a target price of HKD 88 and a "Buy" rating for AIA [1].

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts AIA's new business value (VNB) to grow by 16% and 15% year-on-year under actual exchange rates (AER) and constant exchange rates (CER) respectively for the first half of the year, with a projected acceleration in growth to 21% and 18% in the second quarter compared to 13% in the first quarter, driven by strong performance in Hong Kong and mainland China markets [1] Group 1 - UBS estimates AIA's operating profit per share to increase by 10% year-on-year for the first half of the year [1] - After-tax operating profit is expected to grow by 5% [1] - The interim dividend is projected to rise by 9% to HKD 0.48 per share, although no updates on share buyback plans are anticipated [1] Group 2 - The new chairman, Du Jiaqi, will assume office on October 1, and significant strategic adjustments are expected to be clarified after his appointment [1] - UBS maintains a target price of HKD 88 for AIA and rates the stock as "Buy" [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report anticipates a 5% year-on-year growth in operating profit for the first half of 2025, with core business segments such as life insurance, health insurance, property insurance, and banking contributing stable operating profits [1] - The expected net profit for the second quarter is projected to increase by 13.5% year-on-year, while the first half is expected to show a 6% decline [1] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the underwriting side of property insurance, with a 6% year-on-year increase in net profit for this segment [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The investment return assumptions have been revised upwards, leading to an expected 7% year-on-year growth in operating profit and a 5% increase in net profit for 2025 [2] - The report projects a return on equity (ROE) of over 13% for the years 2025 to 2027, with the current price-to-book ratio for 2025 being below 1x and a dividend yield of approximately 5% [2] - The target price has been raised from HKD 60 to HKD 73 based on a 1.2x price-to-book ratio for 2025, maintaining a buy rating [2]