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大类资产复盘笔记:知往鉴今系列
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-05 09:15
Group 1: Overview of Major Assets - In April, major assets experienced a concentrated release of risks, with A-shares undergoing a significant correction and recovery, the bond market performing well, and commodities showing mixed results, particularly with gold strengthening [2][9]. - The A-share market saw major indices decline, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the drop, while stable sectors like beauty care and agriculture showed resilience [3][12]. - The bond market exhibited a bullish trend, with yields reversing the upward trend from the first quarter, particularly the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.6243% by the end of April [2][24]. - Commodity markets were mostly weak, with oil prices plummeting while gold continued its bullish trend, reaching $3411 per ounce on April 21 [2][25]. Group 2: A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market's fundamentals showed a good start in Q1, but the manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory in April, indicating that the improvement in domestic demand needs to be solidified [3][12]. - Macro liquidity indicators showed a continued recovery in social financing, with a year-on-year increase for four consecutive months, suggesting potential for credit expansion [3][8]. - The influx of funds through ETFs brought additional capital to the market, with ETF trading volume reaching its highest level of the year [3][12]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The bond market saw a reversal in yield trends, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping significantly, indicating a flattening yield curve [2][24]. - The interbank certificate of deposit rates continued to be lower than the 10-year government bond yields, reflecting a persistent inversion [24]. - Credit spreads showed volatility, with an increase in credit spreads observed towards the end of April [24][27]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market faced a general downturn, with gold being a notable exception, continuing its upward trajectory amid geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][25]. - The South China Industrial Products Index weakened significantly, while major commodities like crude oil saw substantial declines [25][28]. Group 5: Global Equity Market Performance - Global equity indices showed mixed results, with U.S. stocks generally declining while European and Asian markets exhibited varied performances [2][39]. - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both experienced declines, while the Nasdaq index managed a slight increase [39][40]. - The VIX index indicated heightened market volatility, reflecting investor concerns amid geopolitical developments [39][48].