宏观流动性： 上周美元指数继续回落，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期有所回升。离岸 美元流动性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面整体平衡、先紧后松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，主要指数波动率均明显回升。行业上，计算机、机械、通信、消费者服务、汽车、电子等板 块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，大多数行业波动率均在 60%分位数以下。 机构调研： 电子、通信、计算机、汽车、医药等板块调研热度居前，商贸零售、有色、钢铁、电子、化工等板块的调研热度环比 仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测分别被下调/上调。行业上，钢铁、煤炭、传媒、计算机等板块 25/26 年净利润预测均被 上调。指数上，上证 50 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调,中证 500、创业板指的 25/26 年净利润预测均被下调。风格 上，大盘成长/价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被上调，中盘/小盘成长、小盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被下调。 北上活跃度回升，整体净卖出 节奏上，北上经历了"净买入-净卖出-净买入"的过程。基于前 ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries both rebounded, indicating a decline in inflation expectations [2][15] - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened overall, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced, with the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y government bonds widening [2][15] Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity saw a significant rebound, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile. Sectors such as computers, machinery, pharmaceuticals, textiles, military, and communications showed trading heat in the top percentile [3][26] - The volatility of major indices increased, while most industry volatilities remained below the 60th percentile [3][33] - Market liquidity indicators slightly improved, but all sectors remained below the 70th historical percentile [3][38] Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity included electronics, computers, communications, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. The research heat in food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, building materials, machinery, and transportation sectors continued to rise [4][45] Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 were adjusted, with increases in the steel, real estate, and communications sectors. The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index were also raised, while those for the SSE 50 index were lowered [5][21] - The proportion of stocks with upward adjustments in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 increased [5][17] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity rebounded significantly, with a notable net inflow into sectors such as electronics, computers, and machinery. Conversely, there was a net outflow from military, communications, and agriculture sectors [6][31] - The trading volume ratio for the top 10 active stocks showed an increase in non-bank, electric new energy, and machinery sectors [6][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity reached its highest point since November 2024, with a net purchase of 53.251 billion yuan, primarily in electronics, computers, and communications sectors [7][35] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, banking, and coal increased significantly [7][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds continued to rise, with significant increases in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals. Conversely, reductions were seen in communications, home appliances, and computers [8][47] - The newly established equity fund scale decreased, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing a decline in new issuance [8][50] - ETFs experienced overall net redemptions, particularly in personal ETFs, while institutional ETFs saw net subscriptions [8][53][54]

第六，对资本市场而言，我国居民巨量存款首先应该成为消费的潜力，其次才是流动性的潜力。因为资本市场回报率最终取决于上 市公司的ROE，所以我们应该更多去关注政策如何增强有存款居民的消费信心，推动上市公司业绩和ROE的回升。有了上市公司 ROE回升，同时如果市场能避免不必要的波动，那么居民就会逐步改变对资本市场的观念，财富配置性迁徙资本市场，推动估值合 理回升。 第七，所以如果市场过多将居民存款迁徙作为牛市的理由，那么短期资本市场微观流动性可能进入不可预测状态，对中长期资本市 场良好发展未必是好事。相反，如果市场对微观流动性导致牛市情绪（水牛）讨论下降，更多关注上市公司业绩和估值，也许居民 财富逐步中长期配置资本市场和A股慢牛会同步实现。 核心观点 我们《银行研思录12：每年存款到期有多少？》和7月进入数据解读《如何看待7月信贷和非银存款？》报告发出后，不少客户来交 流讨论对于存款迁徙趋势和对市场影响的看法。我们做了一些思考，总结如下： 第一，如我们报告测算，我国每年都有大量存款到期，2023-2025年分别为83、91、105万亿。所有价格上涨背后必然有货币流动性 支撑，资本市场的上涨也不例外。资本市场资金来源 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a decline in the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields in the US, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.23% and the 2-year yield to 3.69% during the week of July 28 to August 1 [3][22][23] - The report highlights a significant net inflow of southbound funds, totaling 819.5 billion yuan year-to-date, with major inflows into non-bank financials (+13 billion yuan), pharmaceuticals (+10.66 billion yuan), and electronics (+3.79 billion yuan) [6][44][47] - The report notes a decrease in financing buy-in amounts, averaging 189.3 billion yuan, which represents a 0.4% week-on-week decline, while the proportion of financing buy-in to total A-share trading volume increased [7][51] Group 2 - In July, 135 new funds were established, with 78 being equity funds, totaling approximately 35.5 billion units issued, compared to 83 funds in July 2024 [6][29][33] - The report states that 32 new equity ETFs were launched in July, with a total issuance of 13.9 billion units, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [6][35][39] - The report mentions that the IPO activity in July included 8 companies raising approximately 24.2 billion yuan, with a total equity financing scale of about 66.2 billion yuan [7][56]

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a general decline, with MSCI Global down by 2.2%, MSCI Developed down by 2.3%, and MSCI Emerging down by 1.6% [8][15][17] - Among developed markets, the Australian S&P 200 showed the best performance with a decline of only 0.1%, while the French CAC40 was the weakest, down by 3.7% [8][15] - In the emerging markets, the Taiwan Weighted Index was the best performer, up by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst, down by 3.5% [8][15] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased across major indices, with the Hang Seng Index reaching 198 billion shares and a turnover of 736.1 billion USD, while the S&P 500 had a turnover of 58.6 billion USD [24] - Investor sentiment in the Hong Kong market improved, with short-selling accounting for 13.5% of total turnover, while North American sentiment showed a decline [24][29] - Volatility increased in the US markets, while it decreased in the Hong Kong market [24][30] Fund Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations turned more accommodative, with the market anticipating 2.4 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [53][56] - Significant capital inflows were observed in the Hong Kong market, with a total of 18.3 billion HKD flowing in during the last week [61][65] - The net inflow of funds into the Hong Kong market was primarily driven by stable foreign capital, amounting to 13.8 billion HKD [61] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index were revised down from 2195 to 2191 for 2025, with the financial sector seeing the largest upward revision [66][68] - The S&P 500's earnings expectations were adjusted upward from 265 to 267, with the technology sector experiencing the most significant increase [66][68] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index saw a slight downward revision in earnings expectations from 336 to 335 for 2025 [66][68]

Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in IPO amounts in July, with significant net inflows from southbound funds and financing into the pharmaceutical sector [1][4][34]. Macro Liquidity - Domestic: During the week of July 21-25, the yields on 2-year and 10-year government bonds rose, with the 10-year and 2-year bond yield spread widening. The central bank's net injection in the open market was 109.5 billion yuan, and the MLF net injection was 100 billion yuan [2][12]. - International: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased while the 10-year yield decreased, leading to a decline in the dollar index. As of July 25, the spread between Chinese and U.S. 10-year government bonds narrowed to -2.67% [2][16][17]. Market Liquidity Public Funds - In July 2025, 110 new funds were established, with 62 being equity funds, totaling approximately 28.3 billion units issued [3][22]. ETF Funds - 35 new ETF funds were established in July 2025, with 25 being equity ETFs, totaling 11 billion units issued [3][25]. Southbound Funds - Significant net inflows were observed in southbound funds, with a total net inflow of 765.4 billion yuan year-to-date as of July 25 [3][34]. Margin Financing - The average financing purchase amount was 190 billion yuan, a 27.7% increase from the previous week, with notable net inflows in the non-ferrous metals and pharmaceutical sectors [4][42]. Fundraising - In July, there were 6 IPOs raising approximately 23.3 billion yuan, with total equity financing of about 60.7 billion yuan [4][46]. Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector saw the largest net inflow of 10.42 billion yuan, followed by pharmaceuticals and computers, totaling approximately 17 billion yuan [3][36].

Macroeconomic Liquidity and Capital Prices - The central bank maintained a net injection of 129.5 billion CNY, continuing to support the liquidity environment[10] - The money market rates have increased, with R007 rising by 18.7 basis points and DR007 by 14.6 basis points[13] - Bond market yields are under pressure, with 1Y and 10Y government bond yields increasing by 3.45 and 6.72 basis points respectively[13] Microeconomic Liquidity and A-share Market - A-shares experienced a net inflow of 46.6 billion CNY, primarily driven by significant inflows of leveraged funds[21] - Retail investors showed increased activity, with net inflows of 78.6 billion CNY, a rise of 26.2 billion CNY from the previous period[24] - Leveraged funds saw a net inflow of 444 billion CNY, marking a significant increase in market risk appetite[28] Fund Flows and Public Offerings - New issuance of equity funds reached 19.4 billion CNY, an increase of 6.8 billion CNY from the previous period[39] - Equity ETFs experienced a net outflow of 58.3 billion CNY, while industry-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of 115.1 billion CNY[40] - The total supply of funds was 58 billion CNY, up 35.9 billion CNY, while total demand decreased to 11.3 billion CNY, down 16.4 billion CNY[21] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, potentially increasing market uncertainty[65] - Geopolitical events could escalate tensions, impacting domestic and international markets[65] - Statistical data discrepancies may lead to inaccuracies in market assessments[65]

Market Performance - Developed markets outperformed last week, with MSCI global index up by 1.3%, MSCI developed markets up by 1.4%, and MSCI emerging markets up by 0.7% [3] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance (+4.1%), while S&P/ASX 200 was the weakest (-1.0%) [3] - In emerging markets, ChiNext Index was the best performer (+2.8%), while India’s Sensex 30 was the worst (-0.4%) [3] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in Hong Kong and European markets, while it decreased in the US market [10][11] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index saw a trading volume of 186 billion shares and a turnover of 705.5 billion USD, reflecting a week-on-week increase [11] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong decreased to 11.5%, indicating high investor sentiment [11] Valuation - Developed markets' overall valuation improved, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 23.8x and 3.8x, respectively, placing them in the 93% and 100% percentile levels since 2010 [13] - Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average had the highest PE ratios at 43.1x and 32.0x, respectively [13] - Emerging markets also saw a valuation increase, with PE and PB ratios at 16.5x and 2.0x, respectively, in the 86% and 92% percentile levels since 2010 [14] Fund Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations tightened, with significant capital inflows into France, Germany, and India, while outflows were noted from the US [19][21] - In Hong Kong, a total of 21.3 billion HKD flowed into the market, with stable foreign capital inflows of 13.4 billion HKD [21] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's consumer sector saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2215 to 2210 [22] - The US S&P 500's earnings expectations remained stable at 265, while the Eurozone's STOXX50 index saw a slight downward adjustment from 338 to 337 [22][23]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined again, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [1][11] - The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds have both decreased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][11] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation has shown a pattern of first easing and then tightening [1][16] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to rise, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile [2][21] - The volatility of major indices has increased, with most industry volatilities remaining below the 40th historical percentile [2][27] - Market liquidity indicators have slightly declined, with liquidity metrics across various sectors remaining below the 40th historical percentile [2][32] Group 3: Institutional Research and Analyst Predictions - Research heat is high in sectors such as electronics, computers, retail, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals, while real estate and non-bank sectors have seen a rise in research heat [3][39] - Analysts have simultaneously lowered the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with an increase in the proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts [4][46] - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, light industry, steel, and utilities have seen upward adjustments in their 2025/2026 net profit forecasts [4][4][21] Group 4: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with overall net purchases of A-shares [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the ratio of buying and selling amounts in sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and electric new energy has increased [5][32] - Northbound funds primarily net bought sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling occurred in computers and telecommunications [5][33] Group 5: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to rise, reaching a year-to-date high, with net purchases mainly in machinery, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases in real estate, consumer services, and utilities has increased [6][38] - Margin financing has net bought across various styles of stocks [6][39] Group 6: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have slightly reduced their positions, while ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions [8][45] - Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in sectors like computers, electronics, and banks, while reducing in pharmaceuticals and retail [8][46] - New equity fund establishment has significantly increased, with a notable rise in the scale of passive funds [8][50]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined again, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations continuing to rise [1][11][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation has shown a pattern of first easing and then tightening [1][14] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to rise, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile [2][20] - The volatility of major indices has also increased, with most industry volatilities below the 40th historical percentile [2][26] Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, computer, retail, communication, and pharmaceutical sectors have seen high research activity, while real estate and non-bank sectors have also experienced a rise in research heat [3][36] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have simultaneously lowered the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, while increasing forecasts for sectors such as non-ferrous metals, light industry, steel, and utilities [4][19] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index for 2025/2026 have been raised, while those for the CSI 300, SSE 50, and ChiNext have been lowered [4][23] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with overall net purchases of A-shares, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals [4][31] - The ratio of buy/sell amounts for the top 10 active stocks has increased in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and pharmaceuticals [4][32] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to rise, reaching a year-to-date high, with significant net purchases in sectors like machinery, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [6][10] - The proportion of financing purchases in real estate, consumer services, and utilities has increased [6][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have slightly reduced their positions, primarily increasing allocations in sectors like computers, electronics, and banks [5][45] - ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, particularly in sectors such as construction, steel, and chemicals, while electronic, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors have experienced net redemptions [5][53]