[Table_Title] 宽基 ETF 流出放缓，宏观流动性边际收敛 ——流动性周报 3 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 2026 年 03 月 03 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 相关报告 《近期涨价链行情观点及 3-4 月布局思路*赵阳》— —2026-03-01 《流动性周报 2 月第 3 期：社融同比增速放缓，权 益基金发行回暖*赵阳》——2026-02-24 《流动性周报 2 月第 2 期：宽基流出明显收窄*赵 阳》——2026-02-10 《流动性周报 2 月第 1 期：宽基 ETF 继续大幅流 出*赵阳》——2026-02-02 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 1. 本周（2026/02/23-2026/02/27，下同）宏观资金面边际收敛，央行通 过公开市场操作开展逆回购净回笼 7274 亿元，开展中期借贷便利净投放 3000 亿元。资金价格方面，短端利率、长端利率均有所上行，期限利差 有所走阔。 2. 本周股市资金供给端呈现结构性分化，权益基金发行大幅回落，杠杆 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 建筑装饰 建筑板块哪些标的受益涨价？ 需求平稳+供给受限，有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭等行业有望迎来涨价。需求 端看：2 月 27 日政治局会议表态要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"、"持 续扩大内需、优化供给"、"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"；此前中央经济工作会议表态要"推动投资止跌回稳"；叠加近期 上海等城市地产政策优化，进一步稳固地产行业预期。在系列政策呵护下 预计我国 2026 年总需求有望平稳。供给端看：各行业积极推动反内卷政 策落地，以及高耗能行业积极落实控制碳排放，整体供给端受限。在需求 平稳、供给受限背景下，预计有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭等行业有望迎来涨价。 有色：宏观流动性、地缘贸易变局与产业基本面硬约束三重共振驱动价格 上涨。宏观流动性方面，2026 年美联储降息周期的演进为大宗商品提供 了流动性基础。地缘贸易方面，以铜为例，由于近期美国铜关税政策调整 预期，导致美国市场以溢价持续囤积库存，在此类关税政策多变背景下， 全球资金更愿意把部分金属当作战略资源/硬资产来配置，从而推高阶段 性波动。产 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 建筑装饰 建筑板块哪些标的受益涨价？ 需求平稳+供给受限，有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭等行业有望迎来涨价。需求 端看：2 月 27 日政治局会议表态要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"、"持 续扩大内需、优化供给"、"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"；此前中央经济工作会议表态要"推动投资止跌回稳"；叠加近期 上海等城市地产政策优化，进一步稳固地产行业预期。在系列政策呵护下 预计我国 2026 年总需求有望平稳。供给端看：各行业积极推动反内卷政 策落地，以及高耗能行业积极落实控制碳排放，整体供给端受限。在需求 平稳、供给受限背景下，预计有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭等行业有望迎来涨价。 有色：宏观流动性、地缘贸易变局与产业基本面硬约束三重共振驱动价格 上涨。宏观流动性方面，2026 年美联储降息周期的演进为大宗商品提供 了流动性基础。地缘贸易方面，以铜为例，由于近期美国铜关税政策调整 预期，导致美国市场以溢价持续囤积库存，在此类关税政策多变背景下， 全球资金更愿意把部分金属当作战略资源/硬资产来配置，从而推高阶段 性波动。产 ...

固 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 28 日 定 收 益 重构信贷收支表：连接货币政策与银行行为 ——解构宏观流动性系列之一 固 定 收 益 近年来债券投资者对于银行债券配置行为的关注度持续提升，但债券 投资并不是银行最主要的业务类型。银行的存款与贷款分别是 M2 与社融 的主要构成部分，而后者又是货币政策的目标，央行本质上也是通过调控 流动性来影响银行的行为，进而实现其货币政策的目标。因此，研究银行 债券配置需要从中观视角连接货币政策与银行行为。而央行每月公布的信 贷收支表为相关行为提供了相对充分的信息。 深 度 考虑 M2 是货币政策的重要中介目标，因此我们的研究以银行行为如 何影响 M2 作为起点。由于银行存款与 M0 都在信贷收支表的资金来源端， 二者又是 M2 的主要组成部分。理论上如果其他因素不变，银行其他资金 来源的下降与资金运用的上升，都会带来 M2 的上升，因此我们既可以根 据信贷收支表上各类机构各类存款的此消彼长分析 M2 的变动，也可以根 据其他科目的变化来反推 M2 变动的原因。但近年来，M2 的变动常常与信 贷、债券投资等科目的变动相背离，如果反推 M2 可以发现其变动常常由 其他 ...

春节前一周美元有所回落，中美利差"倒挂"程度继续收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期同样有所回落。 离岸美元流动性边际有所收紧，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回落，多数指数的波动率回升。传媒、建材、轻工、通信等板块的交易热度均处于 90%分位数以上。 军工板块的波动率处于 80%分位数以上。 机构调研： 银行、电子、计算机、电新、军工等板块调研热度居前，纺服等板块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 宏观流动性： 全 A 的 26/27 年净利润预测分别被下调/上调。行业上，有色、传媒、建材、化工、电子等 26/27 年净利润预测均被 上调。指数上，中证 500、创业板指、上证 50 的 26/27 年净利润预测均被上调，沪深 300 的 26/27 年净利润预测分别 被下调/上调。风格上，大盘/中盘价值 26/27 年净利润预测被上调，大盘成长、小盘价值均被下调，中盘/小盘成长 的 26/27 年净利润预测分别被下调/上调。 北上活跃度有所回落，重新小幅净买入 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在通信、电子、电新等板块的买 ...

经济观察网截至2026年2月12日，因美纳(ILMN.OQ)股价收于114.77美元，较前一交易日下跌1.38%，近 20日累计下跌20.28%，60日内最低价触及112.65美元，创阶段性新低。以下为近期股价承压的主要因 素： 业绩经营情况 行业与风险分析 测序行业竞争加剧：尽管NovaSeq X平台(占高通量收入51%)贡献主要增长，但竞争对手在低成本测序 技术上的突破可能挤压长期利润率。 总结：因美纳股价走低是业绩增速放缓、行业波动、宏观流动性担忧及地区风险等多重因素叠加的结 果。投资者需关注公司后续财报(如2025年Q4业绩)、中国市场政策进展及全球测序需求变化。 最新财报表现：2025财年第三季度(截至2025年9月28日)营收10.83亿美元，同比仅增长0.28%，净利润 1.5亿美元，同比下滑78.72%。尽管2025年11月公布的Q3营收10.8亿美元符合预期，且公司上调全年业 绩指引，但中国市场营收同比下滑30.7%(主要因仪器出口限制)，拖累整体增长。机构下调目标价： 2026年2月9日，摩根大通将因美纳目标价从130美元下调至120美元，维持"中性"评级，反映市场对其短 期增长潜力的审慎 ...

【博时市场点评2月11日】两市涨跌不一，创业板跌超1% 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指跌超1%，两市成交较昨日继续缩量至略过2万亿。央行发布2025 年第四季度货币政策报告，重申继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活运用多种工具保持流动性充裕，为 A股奠定了较为稳定的宏观流动性基础。同时提出将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关注长期收益率的变 化。政策核心是完善流动性管理框架、加强政策协同，而非直接进行大规模量化宽松。同时，报告表述 的细微变化显示政策更注重"精准滴灌"，短期降息概率或有所降低。1月物价数据公布，核心CPI温和上 涨的态势没有改变，PPI环比继续上涨，同比降幅延续收窄。数据释放了工业生产与居民消费两端动能 边际改善的积极信号，有助于提振企业盈利预期和整体市场信心。从当前市场行为看，资金或逐步从宏 观预期转向微观验证，市场整体有望在业绩验证中延续结构性行情。 2月10日，工业和信息化部等五部门联合发布《关于加强信息通信业能力建设 支撑低空基础设施发展的 实施意见》。文件设定了明确的发展目标：到2027年，全国低空公共航路地面移动通信网络覆盖率不低 于90%。为此，文件部署了推进低空通信网络覆盖、 ...

【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔夜伦铅收涨，开盘报1974美元/吨，高点报1981.50美元，低点报1960.50美 元，尾盘收于1977.50美元，涨3美元，涨幅0.15%；成交量5015手，持仓量178138手。长江铅业网 (pb.ccmn.cn)今日现货铅价行情预估：隔夜伦铅小幅飘红，主要得益于美元走弱降低计价成本、美股风 险偏好稳定以及金属板块整体偏暖情绪的联动支撑。在此背景下，2026年2月11日国内铅价呈现低开后 温和回升的走势。由于临近春节，市场交投趋淡，多空均显谨慎，预计日内价格将维持窄幅震荡、小幅 跟涨的格局，难有趋势性突破，整体表现为外盘带动下的节前平稳运行。 铅价供需现状：供需双降，趋于平衡 供给端：春节临近，国内铅矿山冬休、冶炼厂开工率下滑，原生铅、再生铅企业减产停产，仅少数企业 稳产，供给季节性收缩，冶炼厂原料库存短暂累积。 需求端：下游铅蓄电池企业节前收尾、停工放假，采购低迷、消耗自有库存，终端消费清淡，需求呈现 季节性走弱态势。 库存端：国内铅锭社会库存向社会仓库转移，整体中性；LME铅库存稳定，对价格形成中性支撑，无 大幅累库或去库现象。 铅产业链现状（春节前淡季） 上游：铅精矿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term (the remaining two trading weeks in February), the macro - liquidity environment is acceptable, and there seems no reason for continuous decline in A - shares, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. However, if the macro - liquidity tightens in March, it will be a real concern [8][23] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform [11][62] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 National Asset Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In December 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.4% (previous value 8.6%), in line with expectations. It's expected to drop to around 8.3% in January 2026, rebound slightly to around 8.4% in February, and decline in March [1][18] - In the financial sector, last week's capital market loosened marginally, with the peak in February expected to occur this week [1][18] - In December 2025, the government debt growth rate was 12.4% (previous value 13.1%), expected to rebound to around 12.6% in January 2026 and likely decline in February [2][19] - Last week, the government bond net increase was 734.3 billion yuan (slightly higher than the planned 721.4 billion yuan), and next week's planned net increase is 7.02 billion yuan [2][19] - **Monetary Policy** - Last week, the average weekly capital trading volume increased, the capital price decreased, the term spread narrowed slightly, and the capital market loosened marginally [2][19] - The one - year Treasury bond yield rose unilaterally last week, closing at 1.32% on the weekend. It's expected to have a lower limit of about 1.3%, a central value of around 1.4%, and a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut in 2026 [2][19] - The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 49 basis points. The spread between the ten - year and one - year, and the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds is expected to be in the range of 20 - 60 basis points. The future yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [2][19] - **Asset Side** - In December 2025, physical quantity data continued to operate stably compared to November. Attention should be paid to whether the economy can continue to stabilize or even rise marginally [3][20] - The annual real economic growth target for 2025 set by the Two Sessions is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It needs further observation whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][20] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has entered a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024, followed by a low - level narrow - range oscillation in the profit cycle. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016, and the convergence of the liability side is not over but has limited room [6][21] - Sino - US relations are in a state of equal - strength competition. If the valuation of the US technology sector is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China. Attention should be paid to the RMB exchange rate [6][21] - Last week, the capital market loosened marginally, equities declined significantly, the value style continued to outperform, and the stock - bond ratio favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.81%, the one - year Treasury bond yield rose 2 basis points to 1.32%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield fell 4 basis points to 2.25% [7][22] - The full - position equity strategy with a balanced style underperformed, and the broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.37pct last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, it has underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 2.52pct, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% [7][22] - The market performance last week was unexpected. Funds may have flowed out of the stock and bond markets to buy safer assets. The decline in US technology stocks may have affected domestic growth stocks. This week, the Shanghai 50 Index (50% position) and the CSI 1000 Index (50% position) are recommended [8][23] - The current broad - based index recommendation strategy focuses on position selection and style analysis, can accommodate large - scale funds, has small fluctuations and good liquidity, and will receive more attention in the context of the marginal convergence of the national asset - liability sheet [9][24] 3.3 Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, A - shares fell with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.3% [32] - Among the Shenwan primary industries, food and beverage, beauty care, power equipment, comprehensive, and transportation had the largest increases, while non - ferrous metals, communication, electronics, steel, and computer had the largest declines [32] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of February 6, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and communication, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, steel, social services, and coal [33] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, machinery, national defense and military industry, and automobiles, while the top five with decreased crowding were non - ferrous metals, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, petroleum and petrochemicals, and non - bank finance [33] - As of February 6, the crowding of communication, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemicals was at relatively high percentiles since 2018, while that of transportation, non - bank finance, real estate, pharmaceutical biology, and food and beverage was at relatively low percentiles [33] - This week, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 2.4 trillion yuan, up from last week's 3.06 trillion yuan. Food and beverage, beauty care, transportation, coal, and media had the highest year - on - year trading volume growth rates, while steel, non - ferrous metals, building decoration, pharmaceutical biology, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest trading volume declines [35] - **Industry Valuation and Earnings** - This week, in the Shenwan primary industries, real estate, food and beverage, beauty care, comprehensive, and power equipment had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while non - ferrous metals, communication, electronics, steel, and computer had the largest declines [39] - As of February 6, 2026, industries with high 2024 full - year profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, power, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [40] - **Industry Prosperity** - **External Demand**: Mixed performance. In December, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.4 to 50.9, and most economies' PMI data in January showed an upward trend. The CCFI index fell 4.55% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and 33.9% in January, and Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 23.9% in December to 34.3% in January [44] - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed performance. Highway truck traffic volume increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October 2025, increased from November to December, and slightly decreased in January. Automobile sales were weaker than the historical seasonality, new - home sales were at a historical low, and second - hand home sales were relatively strong compared to the historical seasonality. As of February 1, the national second - hand housing listing price index remained flat compared to last week. As of January 30, the production material price index rose 0.9% week - on - week [44] - **Public Offering Market Review** - In the first week of February (February 2 - 6), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The weekly growth rates of the 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles were 0.8%, 0%, - 0.6%, and - 1.8% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell 1.3% [59] - As of February 6, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.94 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59] - **Industry Recommendations** - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good profitability, and ability to survive [11][62] - Combining the above three characteristics and the under - allocation in the public offering's fourth - quarter report, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [11][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the market experienced a double - bull situation in stocks and bonds. The Wind All - A Index rose 5.83%, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond dropped 4 basis points to 1.81%. The stock - bond ratio favored stocks, with growth outperforming value in the equity style. The improvement in macro - liquidity in January was beneficial to both equities and bonds. Looking ahead to February, with the accelerated issuance of local bonds, the liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to rebound slightly, and macro - liquidity will improve, which is favorable to equities, while the bond market has strong supply and demand and limited investment value. The equity style is expected to gradually move towards balance in February. There are concerns about the potential impact of a decline in US technology stocks on the domestic market [4]. - In December 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector decreased to 8.4%. Structurally, the liability growth rates of households and the government were lower than the previous values, while that of non - financial enterprises was higher. It is expected that the liability growth rate of the real - sector will gradually decline and approach the nominal GDP growth rate. The liability growth rate of the government sector is expected to rebound slightly in January 2026, and the real - sector liability growth rate may decline slightly [5][14]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the US Treasury bond balance decreased slightly, and fiscal deposits decreased. It is expected that the real and nominal economic growth rates in the US will decline in 2026, and the liability growth rate of the real - sector will remain stable. In China and other emerging economies, it is expected that a phased economic bottom will be formed at the end of 2022, and then recovery will begin. Commodity prices are expected to decline, and the long - term cycle logic may change. If the valuation of the US technology sector is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China [15][43]. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 1.全社会债务情况 - As of the end of December 2025, the total social debt balance in China was 505.3 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 8.3%. The debt balance of financial institutions (inter - bank) was 92.2 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.9%. The debt balance of the real - sector was 413.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 8.4% [16][18][21]. - Specifically, the household debt balance was 81.3 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.4%. The government debt balance was 119.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 12.4%, and it is expected to rebound slightly in January 2026. The non - financial enterprise debt balance was 212.8 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.6%. The medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate of non - financial enterprises rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to 8.1% [23]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year profit of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3%, and the liability balance increased by 4.2% year - on - year. The profit of state - owned enterprises decreased by 32.4% year - on - year [26]. 2.金融机构资产负债详解 - As of the end of December 2025, the debt balance of broad financial institutions was 166.8 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The debt balance of banks was 136.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4%. The debt balance of non - banking financial institutions was 30.2 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.0% [29]. - In December 2025, the excess reserve ratio of banks was 1.8%, and the money multiplier was 8.45. The three quantitative indicators of monetary policy showed two increases and one decrease, indicating that monetary policy was marginally relaxed in December 2025 and continued to be relaxed in January 2026. The liquidity of non - banking financial institutions was also marginally relaxed [31][34]. - The year - on - year growth rate of the base money supply in December 2025 was 8.5%. The new broad - money supply indicator NM2 generally followed the trend of M2, but there were periods when their relative performance differed. It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of NM2 will be lower than that of M2 in the future, indicating limited room for further monetary policy relaxation [36][39]. 3.资产配置 - In January, the market was characterized by a double - bull situation in stocks and bonds. The improvement in macro - liquidity was beneficial to equities and bonds. In February, with the accelerated issuance of local bonds, macro - liquidity will improve, which is favorable to equities, while the bond market has strong supply and demand and limited investment value. The equity style is expected to gradually move towards balance [41]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the combined foreign assets of the central bank and banks increased, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds widened. It is expected that the real and nominal economic growth rates in the US will decline in 2026, and the liability growth rate of the real - sector will remain stable. If the valuation of the US technology sector is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China [43].