Core Insights - The banking sector's fundamentals are showing slight improvement with low volatility, and excess returns are expected to revert by November [1] - Key observation points include the peak confirmation of M1 growth and the progress of new quotas for insurance capital [1] - The reduction of 110 billion yuan in "other financial company debts" by the central bank in August suggests that the capital market's activity has reached a policy-consistent level [1] Group 1 - The liquidity indicators such as social financing, M2, and M1 growth are expected to peak in stages, with M1 growth likely confirming its peak by mid-November [1] - There is a rising instability in micro bank liabilities due to trends of deposit short-termization, liquidity, and wealth management, which will increase the endogenous instability of bond market liquidity [1] - Although social financing growth rebounded in September, the peak has already passed in July, and fiscal strength is declining year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Current bank valuations correspond to long-term annualized returns and Sharpe ratios that surpass the overall market, indicating potential allocation value [1] - The Financial ETF (510230) tracks the 180 Financial Index (000018), which selects representative securities from banks, insurance, and securities sectors to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the financial industry [1] - The 180 Financial Index focuses on large-cap blue-chip style allocation and serves as an important indicator of financial market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector's fundamentals are showing slight improvement with low volatility, and excess returns are expected to return no later than November [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - M1 growth has peaked, and the progress of new quotas for insurance capital is a key observation point [1] - In August, the central bank reduced "other financial company debt" by 110 billion yuan, indicating that the capital market's activity level has reached a policy-consistent level [1] - Social financing, M2, and M1 growth rates are expected to peak in stages, with M1's peak confirmation expected by mid-November [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - If banks cannot stabilize market sentiment independently, counter-cyclical pressures may spread to other sectors [1] - Structural liquidity migration may lead to high monthly volatility in non-bank deposits [1] Group 3: Banking Sector Liquidity - The trend of short-term, current, and wealth management deposits, combined with self-discipline in interbank deposits, is increasing the instability of micro-bank liabilities [1] - The central bank's control over interbank liquidity is expected to strengthen [1] - Current interest rates have entered a reasonable equilibrium range, with limited upward and downward space [1] Group 4: Financial ETF - The Financial ETF (510230) tracks the 180 Financial Index (000018), which selects 180 representative financial industry securities to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese financial market [1] - The index emphasizes balanced industry allocation to capture market dynamics and investment opportunities in the financial sector [1]